Analysis

11/11/23

7 min read

2023 NFL Week 10 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis

By Jordan Vanek

If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, and Lineup Construction.

Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.

If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.

Week 10 DFS Slate Analysis

Double Stacks

  • Stack: QB C.J. Stroud WR Tank Dell TE Dalton Schultz
  • Runback: RB Joe Mixon and WR Ja’Marr Chase

The Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals matchup is a DFS standout this weekend, with Trenton Irwin gaining popularity due to his price and previous strong performance. Nico Collins is sidelined, likely boosting Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz's workload. Dell excels against single high coverages, averaging 3.56 yards per route run and a 29 percent target rate. In-line tight ends have been an issue all year long for the Bengals, and Schultz is my favorite TE on the entire slate.

To balance the lineup, consider stacking Joe Mixon and Ja'Marr Chase for big plays and touchdowns. If Irwin delivers, there's a strong chance Joe Burrow could outscore C.J. Stroud and that would not be good for this stack.

  • Stack: QB Joe Burrow WR Ja’Marr Chase TE Irv Smith Jr.
  • Runback: RB Devin Singletary WR Tank Dell 

To take a unique approach with Burrow and avoid the common Irwin pick, consider slotting in Irv Smith Jr. and Chase. Smith Jr. has seen four targets in consecutive weeks, finding the end zone recently. Chase, historically strong without Tee Higgins, is targeted on over 30 percent of his routes, though he's recovering from a recent back injury—making it a strategic week to fade the Burrow connection.

The Bengals' weak run defense opens opportunities for Devin Singletary, expected to play more than 70 percent of snaps with Dameon Pierce out. Dell is there for the big play and adds potential for increased production, creating a scenario where Burrow might throw more frequently.

  • Stack: QB Geno Smith WR DK Metcalf AND WR Tyler Lockett Or WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • Runback: WR Terry McLaurin

Geno Smith is my top quarterback pick for the weekend, given the favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders. With Montez Sweat and Chase Young gone, the Commanders lack an exterior pass rush and struggle to defend the deep ball, as evident from the success of bigger receivers like A.J. Brown, DJ Moore and Drake London. I anticipate DK Metcalf thriving in this scenario. Smith needs two pass catchers to produce a high output, and both Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba fit the bill.

Lockett stands out due to his deep target connection with Smith and his ability to exploit the matchup. On the other hand, Smith-Njigba's lower salary allows for flexibility in roster construction. While I lean toward Lockett for the upside, salary considerations might lead me toward Smith-Njigba. Regardless, a Seattle wide receiver is a staple in my lineups against the Commanders.

Though not forcing a runback, Terry McLaurin is a standout option. With eight or more targets in four consecutive games, he poses a threat, especially considering the Seahawks' vulnerability to out wide wide receivers this season.

Mini-Stacks

  • San Francisco at Jacksonville
    • WR Brandon Aiyuk WR Calvin Ridley

The Jacksonville Jaguars are likely to employ Cover 3 against the San Francisco 49ers to bolster their run defense against Christian McCaffrey. In this setup, Brandon Aiyuk has consistently excelled on the boundary, with a remarkable 34 percent target rate and an average of 4.26 yards per route run against Cover 3 this season.

Additionally, the 49ers have surrendered 100 yards to the top wide receiver in three consecutive weeks. In this matchup, I see Calvin Ridley as the primary wideout for the Jaguars, and considering the 49ers' recent inclination for single high coverages under defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, Ridley's impressive 30.3 percent target share against such looks throughout the season makes him a compelling option.

  • Tennessee at Tampa Bay
    • WR DeAndre Hopkins RB Rachaad White

DeAndre Hopkins is thriving with a 31 percent target rate on snaps against Cover 3 with Will Levis at quarterback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be missing key cornerbacks this weekend, creating a prime opportunity for Hopkins to have a standout performance. We just saw multiple Houston Texans pass catchers perform at a high level against this secondary.

Considering the recent struggles of the Tennessee Titans' run defense, Rachaad White's role has been massive, with his dominance in the backfield. While Mike Evans could be a deep play option, the Titans recently allowed 166 rushing yards to the Steelers, making the ground game a potential focus.

  • Atlanta at Arizona
    • RB Bijan Robinson WR Marquise Brown

Bijan Robinson's recent snap percentages of 70 percent and 60 percent indicate a he’s going to be heavily involved. With 4 targets and 11 rushing attempts in the last two games, he's poised for an increased role, especially against the Arizona Cardinals, who are conceding the second-highest yards before contact this season. Hopefully, Arthur Smith also agrees with this assessment.

With Kyler Murray back, Marquise Brown is likely to be a primary target. Despite struggling with quarterback play this season, Murray's return could elevate Brown's performance. In the first game post-ACL injury, Murray will lean more toward passing then scrambling. If Murray is reported to be playing without limitations, pairing him with Brown becomes an intriguing strategy to differentiate lineups this weekend.

One-Offs

  • WR Chris Olave

The uncertainty surrounding the Josh Dobbs-led Minnesota Vikings offense leaves questions, but one thing seems likely: the Vikings' defense will likely employ a high blitz rate. This situation makes Chris Olave an intriguing play, given his impressive 31.9 percent target share against the blitz. Despite this idea, Olave isn't widely favored this weekend, making him a less popular but noteworthy choice.

  • WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

While the pricing for this game makes building a confident stack challenging, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands out in a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have shown weaknesses against balanced formations, and St. Brown's performance in this setup has been comparable to Tyreek Hill. Notably, the Detroit Lions have utilized this formation on more than 30 percent of their passing attempts, emphasizing the potential for St. Brown to capitalize on this advantageous situation.

Player Pool

Pos Name Team OPP DK Salary FD Salary
QB C.J. Stroud HOU CIN $6,900 $7,700
QB Joe Burrow CIN HOU $6,800 $8,200
QB Geno Smith SEA WAS $5,800 $6,900
RB Christian McCaffrey SF JAX $9,200 $10,500
RB Austin Ekeler LAC DET $8,400 $9,000
RB Alvin Kamara NO MIN $8,300 $8,800
RB Tony Pollard DAL NYG $7,300 $7,800
RB Travis Etienne Jr. JAX SF $7,100 $8,400
RB Aaron Jones GB PIT $6,500 $6,800
RB Joe Mixon CIN HOU $6,200 $7,700
RB Bijan Robinson ATL ARI $6,000 $6,600
RB Rachaad White TB TEN $5,800 $7,000
RB Jerome Ford CLE BAL $5,300 $6,400
RB Devin Singletary HOU CIN $4,700 $5,700
WR Ja'Marr Chase CIN HOU $8,600 $9,300
WR CeeDee Lamb DAL NYG $8,500 $8,900
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown DET LAC $8,300 $8,600
WR Mike Evans TB TEN $7,200 $7,600
WR Brandon Aiyuk SF JAX $7,100 $7,800
WR DK Metcalf SEA WAS $6,800 $7,300
WR Chris Godwin TB TEN $6,700 $6,500
WR Chris Olave NO MIN $6,400 $7,400
WR Deebo Samuel SF JAX $6,200 $7,000
WR Tyler Lockett SEA WAS $6,100 $6,800
WR DeAndre Hopkins TEN TB $6,000 $7,100
WR Terry McLaurin WAS SEA $5,800 $6,800
WR Calvin Ridley JAX SF $5,600 $6,700
WR Tank Dell HOU CIN $5,500 $6,400
WR Drake London ATL ARI $5,500 $6,500
WR Diontae Johnson PIT GB $5,400 $7,000
WR Marquise Brown ARI ATL $5,200 $6,600
WR George Pickens PIT GB $5,100 $6,600
WR Jahan Dotson WAS SEA $5,000 $4,500
WR Tyler Boyd CIN HOU $4,600 $6,200
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WAS $4,100 $5,600
WR Robert Woods HOU CIN $4,000 $0
WR Curtis Samuel WAS SEA $3,900 $6,000
WR Noah Brown HOU CIN $3,700 $5,400
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN TB $3,400 $5,400
WR Trenton Irwin CIN HOU $3,000 $4,800
WR Kyle Philips TEN TB $3,000 $5,000
TE Sam LaPorta DET LAC $5,700 $6,500
TE Dalton Schultz HOU CIN $4,900 $6,100
TE Kyle Pitts ATL ARI $4,100 $5,300
TE Trey McBride ARI ATL $3,500 $5,100
TE Chig Okonkwo TEN TB $3,000 $4,800
TE Irv Smith Jr. CIN HOU $2,700 $4,900
DST Cowboys DAL NYG $4,400 $5,200
DST Ravens BAL CLE $4,000 $4,600
DST Steelers PIT GB $3,800 $4,300
DST 49ers SF JAX $3,600 $4,100
DST Browns CLE BAL $3,000 $4,100
DST Bengals CIN HOU $2,800 $4,400
DST Cardinals ARI ATL $2,500 $3,700

Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Tags: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Bijan Robinson, Brandon Aiyuk See More

Jordan Vanek

Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.

RELATED