Fantasy
1/3/24
9 min read
2023 NFL High-Value Touch Report Recap: Rushing and Receiving Data
We’ll keep with the trend of past articles, where we provide a weekly data nugget. Below, we’ll see the leaders in expected points per game with their fantasy points over expectation — among running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Part of the equation for expected points per game includes a player’s usage and high-value opportunities.
In the chart below, we can see those top players in expected points per game among running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
When we filter by running backs, we can see the expected point leaders. Because teams often run in goal-to-go (GTG) situations and red zone opportunities, we’ll find many running backs rankly high in high-value touches and expected points.
Later on, we’ll touch on a couple of these inefficient running backs by providing context on their historical data in recent seasons.
For this final in-season article, I wanted to look at the 2023 team and player-level data, plus some historical information, to see if we can glean any takeaways. We won't go as deep as past high-value touch columns but will instead focus on any team or position-level outliers.
The team-level data can inform us to target higher-end offenses or ones that project that way. For instance, the New York Jets often find themselves at the bottom of the red zone and GTG lists. That doesn’t mean we completely fade the team's players, but we understand their touchdown opportunities are limited.
2023 Team-Level Red Zone Data
Let's look at the team leaders in high-value touches because most of the better teams should be high on the list. The table below shows the team leaders in red zone drives with conditional formatting to see which teams rank high in pass, rush and scoring rates.
The Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills are at or near the top in red zone drives while scoring at a high rate. These teams also have higher rush rates in the red zone.
The Dallas Cowboys have a high-powered offense fueled by Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, but Dallas struggled to score in the red zone. The same goes for the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers — they struggled to score in the red area of the field, even though they went there often.
The visual above shows the red zone efficiency leaders in 2023. When we sort the data by red zone efficiency or the team's rate of scoring touchdowns in the red zone, we find the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders as potentially efficient outliers.
These two squads don't have many drives in the red zone, with the Cardinals ranking 27th in red zone drives and the Commanders 20th.
On the flip side, we'll point out that the New England Patriots, Jets, Carolina Panthers and New York Giants are in the bottom four in red zone drives. Unsurprisingly, these teams also need help to score in the red zone.
In the past three seasons (2021-23), the Jets rank 29th with 130 red zone drives, tied with the Houston Texans. The Jets rank ahead of the Panthers (124) and Giants (121). Teams in the middle of the pack had 20 more red zone drives, and the top five teams posted nearly 50 more red zone drives in a three-year span.
2023 Team-Level Goal-to-Go Data
The Miami Dolphins, Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Cowboys and Chiefs rank in the top five in team-level GTG drives, as seen below. Unsurprisingly, Baltimore and Philadelphia rely on the run game in GTG situations. Gus Edwards kept scoring short-yardage touchdowns, and Jalen Hurts stole scores from D'Andre Swift.
Interestingly, Miami remained relatively balanced in rush and pass rates. However, that may not be as surprising because of the team's potent offense with Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The earlier note about the Cowboys struggling in the red zone aligns with the GTG data; they have the third-worst touchdown rate, in front of the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos.
Let's touch on the Broncos briefly because they might be one of the most dysfunctional offenses in the top 12. During the past few weeks, Denver only had one or one-and-a-half players with flex-worthy status: Courtland Sutton and Javonte Williams.
The graphic above shows the worst teams in GTG drives. Besides the Packers, the rest of the teams make sense — the Patriots, Giants, Jets, Titans and Panthers round out the six worst.
2021-22 Team-Level Data
In 2022, Carolina, Seattle and Tennessee tied for the league low of 16 drives in GTG situations. In 2021, the Giants held the last spot with 17 drives. The Jets ranked last in 2020 (14) and 2019 (16).
We will only spend a little bit of time analyzing the past season's data other than discussing some of the leaders and bottom dwellers.
In 2022, the Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers rounded out the top five in red zone drives. Most of these same teams led the league in GTG drives in 2022. The Chiefs, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys, Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals were the year's top six (the latter four were tied at 33 drives).
In 2021, the team leaders in red zone drives were the Bills, Chargers, Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Interestingly, the Bills and Chargers had more than 70 red zone drives in 2021 and zero in 2022 and 2023. For GTG drives in 2021, the Buccaneers, Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers and Indianapolis Colts rounded out the top five.
Some of those teams atop the leaderboards during the past two seasons also fared well in 2023.
2023 Player-Level High-Value Touch Data
Among the leaders in GTG opportunities (rushes plus targets), it's all running backs besides Hurts. Hurts scored 20 touchdowns in GTG situations and sat in front of Swift in total opportunities, yet Swift only scored on 21.7 percent of his opportunities.
The visual below shows the leaders in GTG opportunities.
For the Ravens, Edwards ate up the short-yardage touchdowns. He scored 12 of his 13 total touchdowns in GTG situations. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson scored on 10 of 29 chances near the goal line, meaning Edwards scored at a rate two times as high. Besides that, Baltimore leaned on Edwards twice as often in GTG situations, with 26 opportunities (No. 6), compared with Jackson at 10 (No. 42).
Tony Pollard struggled to land in the end zone in GTG situations; he had the 10th-lowest touchdown rate at 11.5 percent. In theory, Pollard is due for touchdown regression, but that hasn't occurred. There's a scenario where Pollard scores a few more GTG touchdowns, and we don't have this conversation about underperformance.
For context, the lowest touchdown rate for rushers with at least 20 carries includes Joe Mixon at 20 percent in 2022, Dalvin Cook at 14.3 percent in 2021 and Ezekiel Elliott at 20.7 percent in 2020.
In 2019, two rushers ranked at the bottom in scoring efficiency: Nick Chubb and Leonard Fournette. Chubb garnered 28 GTG carries and a 14.3 percent touchdown rate. Fournette had 23 rushes and a 12.5 percent rate.
Again, Pollard scored at a historically low rate. Keep that in mind for 2024.
2021-22 Player-Level High-Value Touch Data
In 2022, Hurts ranked fourth in GTG opportunities (23) with 16 touchdowns (48 percent). The next closest quarterbacks were Joe Burrow and Justin Fields, who tied with 12 opportunities. Travis Kelce ranked 12th with 17 GTG opportunities, scoring 73 percent of them.
Running backs and Hurts dominated the list, making Kelce the lone tight end outlier.
Jamaal Williams led all players in GTG opportunities (34) in 2022, scoring 13 touchdowns. Among the leaders in GTG chances, only Williams, Austin Ekeler, Hurts and Elliott scored 10 or more touchdowns, as seen below.
In 2021, we had a similar trend. Hurts ranked 12th with 20 opportunities and a high touchdown rate at 42.1 percent of the GTG chances.
Also, Ekeler dominated the high-value touches in 2021 with the fourth-most at 24 and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, Ekeler's 54 GTG opportunities and 21 touchdowns in the past two seasons (2021-22) turned into 22 opportunities (No. 9) and four scores.
2023 Late Season Surge
Many leaders in GTG opportunities from Weeks 9-17 made sense. Since Week 9, the running back leaders in points per reception (PPR) per game include Kyren Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Rachaad White, Breece Hall, Isiah Pacheco, Jahmyr Gibbs and Mixon.
In GTG opportunities since Week 9, Mixon (22), McCaffrey (20), Williams (17) and Edwards round out the top four. The most surprising in the top 15 players include Derrick Henry, James Conner and Najee Harris.
The visual below shows the leaders in GTG opportunities in the final half of the season.
Ekeler, Javonte Williams and Bijan Robinson scored at a lower rate than the other GTG leaders. However, that's unsurprising based on their respective offenses. Like the Pollard conversation from earlier, it only takes two or three touchdowns for us to feel differently about these players.
Overall, the late-season player-level data shows us we can still find value in players on weaker offenses if they're garnering high-value touches. We'll hit on the point about Ekeler again, where he goes from über-efficient via touchdowns in 2021 and 2022 to inefficient in 2023.
Though age and potential injury concerns remain, a player's volume and efficiency sometimes don't align. Regression happens, but within the small, season-long samples, it doesn't occur when we need it.
Previous Late Season Surges
In 2022, some of the late-season (Weeks 9-17) weekly winners included the Lions' Williams, Elliott, Hurts, Ekeler and McCaffrey, all of whom garnered tons of high-value opportunities in GTG situations and and scored touchdowns.
We all remember Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown not scoring touchdowns due to Williams punching it in close, but we guessed that would not be sustainable, given his profile.
The visual above shows the leaders in GTG opportunities in Weeks 9-17 in 2022.
Keep in mind we’re using an arbitrary threshold of Weeks 9-17 as the latter half of the season when trends and shifts could be happening within or before that frame. However, that period still provides a large enough sample to notice any late-season surges in high-value touches, which typically translates into higher expected points profiles, meaning more fantasy points.
Further down the list, we find Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Isiah Pacheco, A.J. Dillon and a few others having 10 or more GTG opportunities. However, they didn't score as many touchdowns in Weeks 9-17, causing us to potentially fade these players for the following season (2023).
