Fantasy & Betting
11/15/23
9 min read
2023 Fantasy Football Week 11 Projections: Mahomes, Hurts Set to Battle
Using machine learning, I’ve built a model that projects player usage and fantasy performance week to week. Below, you can find the model’s 2023 Week 11 projections. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues, PPR leagues and projected rank.
Three write-ups for interesting and notable players will be found under each position.
Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.
Week 11 Projections
Quarterbacks
| Name | Att | Comp | PsYds | PsTD | Rush | RshYds | RshTDs | FFPTs | Rank |
| Lamar Jackson | 28 | 20 | 232 | 1.1 | 9 | 56 | 0.7 | 22.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 37 | 26 | 285 | 2.5 | 4 | 20 | 0.1 | 22.0 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 34 | 25 | 251 | 1.6 | 10 | 44 | 0.5 | 21.5 | 3 |
| C.J. Stroud | 34 | 21 | 297 | 2.4 | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | 21.1 | 4 |
| Josh Allen | 37 | 26 | 232 | 2.4 | 5 | 28 | 0.4 | 20.0 | 5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 34 | 23 | 256 | 2.2 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 19.9 | 6 |
| Dak Prescott | 33 | 23 | 264 | 2.1 | 3 | 12 | 0.2 | 19.9 | 7 |
| Sam Howell | 43 | 29 | 314 | 2.0 | 3 | 23 | 0.1 | 19.9 | 8 |
| Joe Burrow | 36 | 26 | 259 | 2.0 | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | 19.8 | 9 |
| Justin Herbert | 36 | 23 | 247 | 2.0 | 2 | 7 | 0.1 | 19.4 | 10 |
| Kyler Murray | 32 | 19 | 239 | 1.3 | 6 | 33 | 0.5 | 19.4 | 11 |
| Justin Fields | 33 | 20 | 235 | 1.2 | 5 | 26 | 0.3 | 19.2 | 12 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 39 | 25 | 241 | 1.8 | 5 | 31 | 0.1 | 19.1 | 13 |
| Jared Goff | 36 | 24 | 266 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | 18.3 | 14 |
| Brock Purdy | 30 | 21 | 285 | 1.8 | 4 | 5 | 0.2 | 18.2 | 15 |
| Russell Wilson | 31 | 21 | 210 | 2.2 | 3 | 18 | 0.1 | 18.0 | 16 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 35 | 24 | 264 | 1.5 | 4 | 21 | 0.2 | 17.6 | 17 |
| Jordan Love | 33 | 20 | 243 | 1.7 | 3 | 18 | 0.2 | 17.5 | 18 |
| Matthew Stafford | 38 | 23 | 286 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 0.1 | 17.5 | 19 |
| Geno Smith | 32 | 21 | 240 | 1.8 | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | 16.6 | 20 |
| Deshaun Watson | 32 | 19 | 212 | 1.4 | 3 | 16 | 0.2 | 15.3 | 21 |
| Bryce Young | 39 | 24 | 212 | 1.5 | 3 | 20 | 0.1 | 14.8 | 22 |
| Zach Wilson | 30 | 18 | 185 | 1.2 | 4 | 20 | 0.1 | 13.1 | 23 |
| Baker Mayfield | 33 | 21 | 208 | 1.2 | 3 | 10 | 0.1 | 12.7 | 24 |
| Will Levis | 33 | 19 | 228 | 0.9 | 3 | 7 | 0.1 | 12.6 | 25 |
| Tommy DeVito | 31 | 18 | 189 | 0.9 | 4 | 21 | 0.1 | 12.4 | 26 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 28 | 18 | 196 | 1.3 | 1 | 5 | 0.1 | 12.3 | 27 |
| Kenny Pickett | 30 | 18 | 186 | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | 0.1 | 11.1 | 28 |
Patrick Mahomes (QB2), Jalen Hurts (QB3)
In the anticipated Super Bowl LVII rematch, Patrick Mahomes (QB2) faces Jalen Hurts (QB3) in a matchup that might not replicate their high-scoring encounter from last February.
Despite the previous shootout, Las Vegas set the total line at 45.5 points, reflecting changes in each team. The Philadelphia Eagles' defense struggles against opposing wide receivers, setting the stage for Mahomes to exploit it, even with challenges in the Kansas City Chiefs' receiving corps.
Mahomes is expected to shine against the Eagles' defense, while Hurts could find success on the ground against a Chiefs defense vulnerable to quarterback rushes. Despite the game's relatively low total, both teams are motivated.
The Eagles seek revenge for their Super Bowl loss, and Mahomes is eager to maintain his team's dominance. Fantasy managers can anticipate impactful performances from Mahomes and Hurts, each leveraging their unique strengths against the nuances of their opponent's defense.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (QB7)
During the past five weeks, Dak Prescott has claimed the title of fantasy football's QB1. With four consecutive performances of 24 or more points, the discussion around whether Prescott is elite has rekindled.
Prescott has always been a talented quarterback; his past struggles were largely attributed to turnovers. Since last year, the Dallas Cowboys are averaging nearly three more pass attempts per game, and Prescott seems to have resolved his turnover issues.
Dallas' challenge in converting goal-line opportunities into touchdowns has played to Prescott's advantage, allowing him to accumulate significant fantasy points.
In the upcoming matchup against the Carolina Panthers, a team with a vulnerable rush defense, the Cowboys might lean on their ground game. Nevertheless, Prescott is expected to see substantial volume and efficiency, making him a solid starting option in fantasy football.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (QB11)
Kyler Murray's return to action against the Atlanta Falcons was a welcome sight, although he didn't deliver an outstanding performance, finishing as QB13.
It's not uncommon for players, especially quarterbacks, to operate below peak performance in the initial weeks after returning from a long-term injury. Murray is no exception to this norm. While he might not have showcased his full prowess, there's optimism for improvement.
Looking ahead, the Arizona Cardinals are set to face the Houston Texans, a defense that has performed at an average level. The model predicts a modest improvement for Murray, but the real payoff could come later, possibly in the fantasy football championships.
Wide Receivers
| Name | Targets | Receptions | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | PPR | Rank |
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 8 | 101 | 0.7 | 18.3 | 22.4 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 12 | 8 | 107 | 0.6 | 18.2 | 22.4 | 2 |
| Cooper Kupp | 13 | 8 | 109 | 0.6 | 18.1 | 21.9 | 3 |
| Justin Jefferson | 11 | 7 | 112 | 0.5 | 17.9 | 21.6 | 4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 11 | 8 | 97 | 0.6 | 17.5 | 21.5 | 5 |
| Keenan Allen | 11 | 8 | 95 | 0.6 | 17.4 | 21.5 | 6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 8 | 100 | 0.6 | 17.3 | 21.4 | 7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 8 | 88 | 0.7 | 16.7 | 20.7 | 8 |
| Stefon Diggs | 11 | 8 | 78 | 0.8 | 16.5 | 20.4 | 9 |
| DJ Moore | 9 | 7 | 84 | 0.4 | 14.4 | 17.9 | 10 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 4 | 77 | 0.6 | 14.1 | 16.3 | 11 |
| Davante Adams | 10 | 5 | 78 | 0.4 | 13.1 | 15.6 | 12 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 5 | 74 | 0.5 | 13.0 | 15.8 | 13 |
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 6 | 74 | 0.5 | 13.0 | 15.7 | 14 |
| Puka Nacua | 11 | 6 | 81 | 0.3 | 13.0 | 16.1 | 15 |
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0.5 | 12.8 | 15.2 | 16 |
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 5 | 73 | 0.4 | 12.7 | 15.4 | 17 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 4 | 72 | 0.6 | 12.7 | 14.8 | 18 |
| Terry McLaurin | 10 | 6 | 73 | 0.4 | 12.6 | 15.5 | 19 |
| Adam Thielen | 10 | 6 | 67 | 0.4 | 12.5 | 15.7 | 20 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 5 | 77 | 0.4 | 12.3 | 14.7 | 21 |
| Tank Dell | 7 | 4 | 71 | 0.5 | 12.3 | 14.4 | 22 |
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 6 | 54 | 0.7 | 12.1 | 14.9 | 23 |
| Garrett Wilson | 10 | 6 | 66 | 0.4 | 11.9 | 14.8 | 24 |
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 5 | 61 | 0.5 | 11.8 | 14.4 | 25 |
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 5 | 60 | 0.5 | 11.7 | 14.4 | 26 |
| Nico Collins | 6 | 4 | 63 | 0.5 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 27 |
| Diontae Johnson | 9 | 5 | 70 | 0.2 | 11.1 | 13.7 | 28 |
| Mike Evans | 8 | 5 | 64 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 29 |
| Marquise Brown | 8 | 5 | 55 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 30 |
| Gabe Davis | 7 | 4 | 58 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 31 |
| Jordan Addison | 9 | 5 | 54 | 0.3 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 32 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 4 | 52 | 0.4 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 33 |
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 5 | 56 | 0.2 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 34 |
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 4 | 52 | 0.3 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 35 |
| Deebo Samuel | 6 | 5 | 58 | 0.2 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 36 |
| Rashee Rice | 5 | 4 | 44 | 0.4 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 37 |
| Chris Godwin | 8 | 4 | 45 | 0.2 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 38 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 4 | 47 | 0.3 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 39 |
| George Pickens | 6 | 3 | 44 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 40 |
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 4 | 40 | 0.2 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 41 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6 | 4 | 44 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 42 |
| Jahan Dotson | 6 | 4 | 40 | 0.4 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 43 |
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 3 | 34 | 0.4 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 44 |
| Jayden Reed | 5 | 3 | 43 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 43 |
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 3 | 47 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 44 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 3 | 37 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 45 |
| Darnell Mooney | 6 | 3 | 43 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 46 |
| Rondale Moore | 6 | 3 | 25 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 47 |
| Christian Watson | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0.3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 49 |
| Darius Slayton | 6 | 2 | 41 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 48 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 2 | 32 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 51 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 52 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 2 | 34 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 53 |
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 54 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 6 | 4 | 32 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 55 |
| Tutu Atwell | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 56 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 57 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 58 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 4 | 2 | 39 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 59 |
Justin Jefferson (WR4), Jordan Addison (WR32)
With Joshua Dobbs at the helm, it’s tough to dissect this passing attack. The only quarterback who has targeted the tight end position more frequently than Dobbs this season is Desmond Ridder.
Given this tendency, deciphering the role of star receivers Justin Jefferson (WR4) and Jordan Addison (WR32) becomes complex, especially with Jefferson returning from injured reserve this week.
Before his injury, Jefferson commanded an impressive target share of nearly 31 percent, a number that rivals T.J. Hockenson's 29 percent target share in his absence. Despite Addison's status as the WR5 during Jefferson's absence, Dobbs' targeting strategy might see Addison as the odd man out.
Dobbs has proven himself as a capable starter, showcasing viability for his skill players. However, predicting how this talent aligns in the passing game remains uncertain. As Jefferson returns, fantasy managers must cautiously observe how Dobbs utilizes elite talents in this revamped receiving corps.
DK Metcalf (WR18), Tyler Lockett (WR26)
Choosing between the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver options each week is a challenging task. DK Metcalf leads the team in target share when healthy, offering a consistent presence. Still, Tyler Lockett has showcased more scoring prowess with twice as many touchdowns and several explosive performances.
While both players are solid fantasy starters, Metcalf holds a slight edge due to his consistent usage and impressive yards per reception.
In their matchup against the Cardinals — known for their defensive struggles but relative strength against wide receivers (ninth fewest points per game allowed) — Lockett and Metcalf are viable options in the WR2/Flex range.
Fantasy managers can expect a competitive performance from both players, but Metcalf's usage and big-play potential give him a slight advantage in the decision-making process.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (WR24)
Garrett Wilson continues to be a standout in the New York Jets' offense, showcasing a remarkable 33 percent target share that leads the entire NFL dating back to 2017 (Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins).
Despite consistently receiving double-digit targets in five of his last six games, Wilson ranks as the per-game WR22 in that timeframe.
While Wilson excels in accumulating yards, his fantasy upside is hindered by a lack of touchdowns. He hasn't scored since Week 2.
Running Backs
| Name | Rushes | RushYards | RushTDs | Targets | Receptions | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | PPR | Rank |
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 80 | 0.9 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0.2 | 20.4 | 22.2 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 20 | 82 | 0.9 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 0.1 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 16 | 50 | 0.5 | 8 | 5 | 53 | 0.2 | 17.0 | 19.4 | 3 |
| Breece Hall | 17 | 78 | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0.1 | 15.2 | 16.6 | 4 |
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 71 | 0.7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0.1 | 15.0 | 16.6 | 5 |
| D'Andre Swift | 15 | 81 | 0.3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0.2 | 14.9 | 16.6 | 6 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 14 | 63 | 0.6 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 0.2 | 14.4 | 15.6 | 7 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 10 | 41 | 0.6 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 0.3 | 13.6 | 15.5 | 8 |
| Saquon Barkley | 16 | 69 | 0.3 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 0.1 | 13.6 | 15.4 | 9 |
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 64 | 0.3 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0.2 | 13.1 | 14.7 | 10 |
| James Conner | 18 | 75 | 0.6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0.1 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 11 |
| Tony Pollard | 19 | 80 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 13.0 | 13.6 | 12 |
| Gus Edwards | 13 | 63 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0.0 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 13 |
| Rachaad White | 16 | 55 | 0.4 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 0.1 | 12.9 | 14.7 | 14 |
| David Montgomery | 18 | 66 | 0.8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 15 |
| Josh Jacobs | 24 | 79 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 16 |
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 51 | 0.3 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 0.2 | 12.4 | 14.2 | 17 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 14 | 62 | 0.6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0.0 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 18 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 69 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 19 |
| Najee Harris | 15 | 55 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0.1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 20 |
| Javonte Williams | 14 | 49 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 0.4 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 21 |
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 58 | 0.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.2 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 22 |
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 50 | 0.4 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 23 |
| Ty Chandler | 14 | 64 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 24 |
| James Cook | 13 | 66 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 25 |
| Jerome Ford | 15 | 61 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.0 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 26 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 28 | 0.2 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 27 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 19 | 0.1 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 0.2 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 28 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 13 | 42 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 0.1 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 29 |
| A.J. Dillon | 10 | 35 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.1 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 30 |
| Khalil Herbert | 11 | 45 | 0.4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 31 |
| Dameon Pierce | 9 | 32 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0.1 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 32 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 36 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0.1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 33 |
| Devin Singletary | 12 | 42 | 0.3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 34 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 7 | 31 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 35 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 20 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.1 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 36 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 6 | 27 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 37 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 5 | 15 | 0.4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 39 |
| Royce Freeman | 9 | 35 | 0.4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 40 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 7 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 41 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 6 | 36 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 42 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 16 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 43 |
| Joshua Kelley | 6 | 22 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 44 |
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB8), David Montgomery (RB15)
Jahmyr Gibbs unexpectedly led the Detroit Lions in touches last week, outpacing David Montgomery, 17-12, even with Montgomery returning from injured reserve.
It's common for a player to see reduced usage in his first game back from injury. However, the Lions using Gibbs as the goal-line and receiving back raises concerns for Montgomery's role moving forward.
Despite Montgomery salvaging his fantasy day with a 75-yard touchdown, it's uncertain if he can replicate such plays weekly. With Gibbs showcasing significant usage, he emerges as a must-start running back.
Montgomery remains a viable start, but his fantasy outlook hinges on reclaiming his role as the goal-line back.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (RB9)
The primary concern for Saquon Barkley isn't volume but efficiency. Despite leading the New York Giants in targets, Barkley managed only one reception for -5 yards.
With Tommy DeVito at quarterback, Barkley is expected to be the primary weapon for the Giants, but the team's struggles to score touchdowns and move the ball through the air (ranking last with 86 receiving yards in Week 10) paint a grim outlook for Barkley.
While he will see significant volume, the inability to produce monster weeks that can elevate fantasy teams to championship victories adds a layer of uncertainty to Barkley's fantasy prospects.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (RB14)
In the past month, Rachaad White has been a standout in the receiving game among running backs. He leads all backs with an impressive average of 57 receiving yards per game. Notably, he has consistently exceeded 45 yards in all four games.
What's even more promising is White's YAC, which has nearly doubled to an average of 12.3 per reception. That's up from 8.3 earlier in the season.
Facing the San Francisco 49ers this week — who have shown vulnerability against receiving running backs — White's recent performances position him as the RB6. Given the struggles of Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass catchers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, starting White as an RB6 holds even more merit.
Tight Ends
| fullName | Targets | Receptions | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | FPPR | Rank |
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 7 | 73 | 0.7 | 15.0 | 18.4 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 11 | 8 | 73 | 0.5 | 14.8 | 18.9 | 2 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 4 | 66 | 0.5 | 11.6 | 13.8 | 3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 9 | 7 | 49 | 0.5 | 11.1 | 14.4 | 4 |
| Sam LaPorta | 7 | 5 | 55 | 0.5 | 10.9 | 13.5 | 5 |
| Trey McBride | 7 | 5 | 65 | 0.3 | 10.9 | 13.5 | 6 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 4 | 58 | 0.4 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7 |
| Cole Kmet | 7 | 6 | 52 | 0.3 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8 |
| Logan Thomas | 7 | 5 | 52 | 0.4 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 9 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 4 | 40 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 10 |
| Evan Engram | 8 | 6 | 47 | 0.2 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 11 |
| David Njoku | 7 | 5 | 45 | 0.3 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 12 |
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 4 | 39 | 0.4 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 13 |
| Luke Musgrave | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 14 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 15 |
| Durham Smythe | 5 | 3 | 26 | 0.3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 16 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0.3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 17 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 6 | 4 | 29 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 18 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 19 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 2 | 27 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 20 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 3 | 21 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 21 |
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 2 | 26 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 22 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 23 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 24 |
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings (TE2)
While it might seem risky to suggest starting Hockenson is a gamble, Jefferson's return introduces a level of uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the model projects Hockenson to maintain his lead in target share for at least one more week, offering reassurance to fantasy managers considering him in their lineups.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (TE7)
Surprisingly, a multitude of talented tight ends have surfaced in the last three weeks. Mark Andrews ranks as the TE11 in per-game performance during this period. Notably, Andrews has received nine fewer targets than rookie WR Zay Flowers.
While Andrews remains a premier tight end, the emergence of other tight ends projected ahead of him is notable, particularly those with elite target shares.
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