Analysis
11/11/23
4 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: NFL Week 10 Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale Picks
If you are new to Battle Royale, check out our strategy guide.
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Stack Targets
Arizona Cardinals 
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is officially starting and that means he is a full go. In a top-heavy contest like this, it pays much more to be early to the party than late. Murray is a forgotten elite fantasy option when he plays. The team total is 21 points, which implies its median outcome is somewhat functional.
Given the nature of the situation, the variance and ceiling outcome are much higher than a usual 21-point team total scenario. Murray is being drafted as QB10. Let’s lean into that.
James Conner has been a workhorse when he’s healthy, and his backups have been downright bad when he’s not healthy. Conner appears on track to return this week and is being taken as RB18, rarely ever drafted. Sportsbooks have his yardage prop set relatively low, but he is tied for 10th among RBs in touchdown likelihood.
Marquise Brown has seen elite usage throughout the year without much to show for. Murray provides an easy out for Brown to positively regress in efficiency. Brown is third in the league in unrealized air yards. Last year, when both were healthy, Brown more than over 10 targets per game and a 26 percent target share. The ceiling is too high to ignore at WR16. He should be going much higher.
Trey McBride is appropriately priced based on projections but also provides the same team-wide upside, given Murray is back to being a good quarterback. He has seen volume spikes already this season, and Murray could elevate the efficiency and turn it into legit production.
Seattle Seahawks 
The Seattle Seahawks team total is right up there with the second-tier teams, but they’re not being drafted as such. The Washington Commanders' defense has been struggling and is at the bottom of the league in defending quarterback and wide receiver. The Commanders also recently shipped out half of their defensive line, lowering their floor even more.
Geno Smith has not quite gotten there this year, but he’s due for some positive touchdown variance. The Seahawks been quite bad in the red zone, but I expect offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to figure that out. This is an excellent get-right matchup for Smith against this inexperienced secondary. With the three elite fantasy quarterbacks off the slate, Smith can get there.
Sportsbooks have DK Metcalf tied for third with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Keenan Allen among wide receivers on the slate in touchdown likelihood, though fewer projected yards. The ceiling is there, and he should be going higher. The same goes for Tyler Lockett, who is tied for seventh in touchdown equity, ahead of guys like Brandon Aiyuk, DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans. Buy the Seahawks.
Uniqueness, Low ADPs
Quarterback
Geno Smith, Kyler Murray – see above
Running Back
Rachaad White might be a surprising choice given the field's tendency to fall victim to recency bias. The Tennessee Titans' defense has not been its usual run-stuffing self the past few weeks. It has given up the fourth most rushing yards the past three weeks, 149.7 per game. White’s usage has been elite, efficiency decent, and passing game work plentiful.
Other plays: James Conner, Devin Singletary
Wide Receiver
If the Jacksonville Jaguars' game turns into a shootout, Calvin Ridley should stand to benefit the most. The San Francisco 49ers' run defense is legit, so teams have taken advantage of its beatable secondary, bottom-five against defending wide receivers. Ridley has run poorly on touchdown variance and is due for regression. He’s getting down-field and red zone looks — the most valuable targets.
Other Plays: Chris Godwin, George Pickens
Tight End
The tight end market again feels very efficient. George Kittle, Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews are in a tier of their own for touchdown likelihood, with Kittle being undervalued for his ceiling. Sportsbooks do not like T.J. Hockenson due to the low projected team total. Evan Engram is the best bet outside the top six tight ends.
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