Fantasy
3/29/23
3 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Dynasty Values Using Best Ball ADP
We can find dynasty values at each position by comparing 2023 best ball ADP to consensus dynasty rankings. If two players are a similar age, and one is valued more for the upcoming season, then they shouldn't be in the same tier for rankings.
All best ball ADPs are from Underdog Fantasy, which has more than 100,000 2023 drafts fueling ADP. All dynasty values are from KeepTradeCut, a consensus dynasty rankings site. The dynasty values are represented by four-digit numbers. A higher number means the player is more valuable.
Quarterback
Trade For: Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones
Trade Away: Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett
- Tua Tagovailoa and Daniel Jones are 25.1 and 25.8 years old, respectively. Jordan Love (24.4) and Kenny Pickett (24.8) are only slightly younger.
- Tagovailoa and Jones have best ball ADPs of 95 and 98, while Love (151) and Pickett (168) go much later in drafts.
- Tagovailoa (4901) and Jones (4827) are only marginally more valuable in dynasty than Love (4520) and Pickett (4361).
- Jones and Tagovailoa have a better chance to be starting quarterbacks two or three years down the line than Love and Pickett.
Running Back
Trade For: Rhamondre Stevenson
Trade Away: Najee Harris
- Rhamondre Stevenson (25.1) and Najee Harris (25) are nearly identical in age.
- Stevenson carries less dynasty value (4543) than Harris (4670) on KeepTradeCut.
- Yet, Stevenson goes earlier in best ball drafts (pick 34) than Harris (pick 42).
- Stevenson is an ascending player, who took on a bell cow role with elite-receiving chops (88 targets in 2023).
- Harris lost considerable work to undrafted rookie Jaylen Warren last season.
Trade For: Cam Akers
Trade Away: Khalil Herbert
- Cam Akers (23.8) is more than a full year younger than Khalil Herbert (24.9).
- Akers carries slightly less dynasty value (3436 vs. 3462), yet his ADP (82) is earlier than Herbert's (97).
- Trade for the younger running back with a better 2023 projection and better NFL draft capital.
Wide Receiver
Trade For: Jerry Jeudy, Christian Watson
Trade Away: Brandon Aiyuk
- Jerry Jeudy and Christian Watson are both 23.9 years old, while Brandon Aiyuk recently turned 25.
- Jeudy and Watson go at picks 44 and 46, respectively, but Aiyuk is falling to pick 64 in best ball drafts.
- These three players have nearly identical dynasty values (4609 vs. 4569 vs. 4536).
- Trade away the older player with a significantly worse 2023 outlook.
Tight End
Trade For: Juwan Johnson
Trade Away: Mike Gesicki
- Juwan Johnson is younger than Mike Gesicki (26.5 vs. 27.5) and goes earlier in best ball drafts (ADP 159 vs. ADP 177).
- Yet, Gesicki's dynasty value of 2315 is marginally higher than Johnson's 2153.
- While Gesicki has elite speed (4.54 40-time), Johnson is not far behind (4.58 40-time).
- With their ages, I'm willing to forgive Johnson's lack of draft capital, and I'd rather have him on my dynasty team than Gesicki.
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