Fantasy
12/13/23
6 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Analyzing Week 14 Chalk
Examining how you handled the chalk is essential to analyzing previous play. That said, it is arguably more important to look at how the field dealt with the chalk because the information can be part of your decision-making process going forward.
Suppose the field is making considerable mistakes in processing ownership percentages and in how the chalk interacts with other pieces on a slate. In that case, I can confidently alter course and leverage those inefficiencies in our favor.
I will break down rosters each week, examining processes along the way. This piece will examine the state of chalk from the previous week to see if any meaningful takeaways develop.
Week 14 Chalk
Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Zack Moss came into Week 14 having seen 22 running back opportunities the week prior in Jonathan Taylor’s absence. Moss proceeded to see 21 running back opportunities in a much better matchup against the Bengals but managed just 9.6 DK points, failing to hit a 4x salary multiplier.
Cleveland Browns D/ST
The Cleveland Browns gained steam early in the week when it looked like Trevor Lawrence would miss Week 14 with an ankle injury he suffered the prior week. Lawrence ended up playing, while the Browns’ defense still garnered ownership, highlighting last week's primary theme: an overload of information.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey was an easy click for Week 14 due to the relative lack of top-end options to spend salary on. He appeared primed for a massive fantasy day after ripping off 72 yards on his first carry of the game. However, he was held out of the end zone for the second time this season and saw just one target in a game dominated by Deebo Samuel. McCaffrey was another miss at 4x.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice was one of the top point-per-dollar plays leading up to the weekend, narrowly missing a 4x salary multiplier due to a lost fumble. Even so, he saw 10 targets after averaging 9.5 per game the two previous weeks, scoring a touchdown while putting up 72 yards.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson was in a neutral-at-best matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense better attacked through the air. Also, it was a game environment the Atlanta Falcons were highly unlikely to control.
We didn’t understand this chalk leading up to the slate. Understandably, Robinson failed to return a 4x salary multiplier.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was thrust into the “lead back” role due to Isiah Pacheco’s absence but remained highly unlikely to see more than 12-15 running back opportunities.
Furthermore, it was likely Jerick McKinnon would serve as the primary red zone back after his depth of work with the Chiefs. He was another miss at 4x.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen and the Los Angeles Chargers got eviscerated by the surging Denver Broncos after QB Justin Herbert was removed from the game due to injury. More importantly, the Broncos have been among the league leaders at suppressing opposing WR1 production since Week 5.
That made Allen a shaky bet even with a full game of Herbert under center. Allen failed to hit a 4x salary multiplier.
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns
Elijah Moore gained steam early in the week after Amari Cooper’s Week 13 concussion. The field struggled to come off Moore after Flacco was named the starter and Cooper cleared protocol.
Moore saw just six targets and failed to sniff a 4x salary multiplier.
Side note: Cooper and Evan Engram were an elite leverage stack on the Week 14 slate many overlooked. Cooper saw 14 targets, and Engram was the top-scoring tight end on the slate. We’ll cover this in my roster review with Jordan Vanek to see how we incorporated those two into rosters this week.
Chalk Hit Rate
We’ll allow a slight stretch to say Rice managed a 4x salary multiplier. That puts us at nine of 37 chalk players hitting that threshold in the previous five weeks.
That brings the hit rate down to 24.3 percent, which dips slightly below the expectation of 25 percent based on the DraftKings algorithm. Remember, DraftKings' algorithm prices players to hit a 4x salary multiplier roughly 25 percent of the time, based on historical hit rates of all players at all salaries.
This reinforces the idea that the field isn’t better at identifying top plays than if they were picked randomly. It also validates the process of leverage, albeit in a small sample.
We’ll continue to track this data through the end of the season, and we’ll be compiling more robust data this offseason.
Roster Examination
This roster entered by DraftKings user hishboo blew away the field, besting every other roster in play in the $555 Millionaire Maker by 21 points. Coincidentally, one of hishboo's other rosters finished second.
Leading up to the weekend, we identified one primary piece that had to be accounted for on every roster and three secondary spots. Those pieces were the 49ers (every roster piece), the Colts-Bengals game, the Bills-Chiefs game and the Lions-Bears game.
As you see on this roster, hishboo accounted for those spots almost to a tee, only leaving out a member of the Lions-Bears game on the winning roster. DJ Moore scored twice in that game and returned a 4x salary multiplier.
From a theoretical perspective, this roster was a work of art on a slate largely devoid of certainty. Hishboo built a roster using a core of players from the spot with the most certainty this week (the 49ers). Hishboo filled out the rest of their roster with a mix of top on-paper players (Rice, Engram and Drake London), running backs with a solid workload expectation (Joe Mixon and Javonte Williams) and a leveraged defense with immense upside (Vikings).
While we’re completely splitting hairs here, removing Brandon Aiyuk in favor of Moore would have given the roster a higher ceiling and brought it closer to optimal. But again, we don’t need to be perfect to win, so it’s tough to poke holes in anything hishboo did.
