Analysis
8/21/23
7 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: 5 Early Round WR Flag Plants
In this article, we'll spotlight five wide receivers positioned to make a significant impact in the early rounds. Each player possesses a unique blend of skills, supporting circumstances and statistical trends, making them intriguing flag plants for fantasy managers looking to gain an edge.
>>READ: Top 68 Fantasy Wide Receivers
5 Early Round WR Flag Plants
Chris Olave, Saints
Sleeper: 26 ESPN: 31
Chris Olave stood out in his rookie season with impressive stats: 72 receptions for 1,042 receiving yards and four touchdowns for the New Orleans Saints. The addition of quarterback Derek Carr greatly benefits Olave's playing style. Despite missing two games, Olave ranked fourth in the NFL for total air yards last season.
Carr's ability to push the ball downfield puts Olave in a prime position. Notably, in 2021, Carr had 1,795 passing yards on throws farther than 15 yards downfield, which was second in the NFL. In 2022 he was top 10 in completion rate, catchable rate and on-target percentage, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Examining advanced metrics displays Olave's rookie brilliance. During the past five seasons, only 18 rookies received 90-plus targets, and only three maintained more than three yards per route run against single high coverages: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Olave.
Olave's accomplishments aren't just rookie-level; they shine among seasoned players. In 2022, only five wide receivers managed a 25-plus percent target share against single high coverages while maintaining more than three yards per route run. Moreover, they maintained a 20 percent-plus target share against two high coverages and more than 1.5 yards per route run. Olave's name is alongside A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Jefferson, a testament to his exceptional rookie season.
The Saints also have an easy schedule within the NFC South. They play 13 of their 17 games in a dome, getting rid of bad playing conditions. Their only late-season outdoor game is in Tampa Bay, and they play in a dome from Weeks 6 to 17.
In fantasy drafts, Olave is my favorite second-round pick. He has the potential to finish in the top five overall, his rise in average draft position is no surprise to me.
Calvin Ridley, Jaguars
Sleeper: 38 ESPN: 45
Doug Pederson's arrival brought much-needed stability to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the coach showcased Trevor Lawrence's talent as the season went along. The team's main gap to achieving his full potential was a lack of a deep-threat player. That's where Calvin Ridley comes in.
Ridley is set to take the lead in the wide receiver group, becoming the go-to player and the most explosive player. Looking at Lawrence's college performance, 60 percent of his passing touchdowns resulted from routes 7-9: corner, post and vertical. Interestingly, 53.6 percent of Ridley's touchdowns originated from these routes.
The last time Ridley played a full season, he participated in 15 games. He was targeted 143 times, making 90 receptions for 1,374 receiving yards and scoring nine touchdowns. Notably, he achieved more than 100 yards receiving in eight games, even when playing alongside the elite Julio Jones.
Pederson took Christian Kirk and put him in the perfect role for his skill set. Expect him to do the same with Ridley. The 2020 season was Ridley's best, and the main routes are his vertical, cross and hook. I expect Pederson to utilize these three routes at a similar rate. This strategy allows Ridley to run double moves deep, and when he wins deep, integrate the short hooks and crossing routes to up his receptions.
This could be the missing piece that fully unleashes Lawrence's potential, like Stefon Diggs' impact upon joining Josh Allen with the Buffalo Bills. Ridley is my favorite third-round wide receiver; as the season progresses, he should get better.
Amari Cooper, Browns
Sleeper: 41 ESPN: 44
QB Deshaun Watson displayed some rust in the past year, a full offseason of practice should help him shake that off. He demonstrated his ability to support a top-tier wide receiver when he worked alongside DeAndre Hopkins. Cooper might not be as talented as Hopkins, but he’s coming off a huge target year and likely earns more playing a full season with Watson.
The Cleveland Browns made a lot of additions to the passing game, gave Watson a massive contract and didn’t add a running back behind Nick Chubb. Combine those factors, and you get a team that wants to throw the ball more. Expect more volume passing in this offense, and Cooper will see even more targets than last season.
Since 2018, only 11 players managed to command more than a 25 percent target share against single-high and two-high coverages. Cooper achieved this with Watson and Jacoby Brissett. While his numbers weren't better with Watson, it's important to note most of these games came with challenging weather conditions, such as sub-30-degree temperatures or high winds.
Considering Chubb's presence, it's likely opposing teams will employ single-high coverage to counter the Browns' strong running game. This look involves positioning an extra player close to the line of scrimmage. Cooper's track record shows he was highly productive when Watson targeted him against this type of coverage. Specifically, Cooper averaged an impressive 2.81 yards per route run with Watson in such situations. Cooper's yards per route run ranks a commendable ninth among the 72 players with at least 200 routes against this coverage.
In fantasy drafts, Cooper in the fourth round is a great pick. He's a reliable choice for wide receiver two-level production and offers a ceiling if Watson can return to his prior year form.
Keenan Allen, Chargers
Sleeper: 39 ESPN: 39
Kellen Moore takes over as the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers, and there's high anticipation he'll get Justin Herbert back to his impressive 2021 form. In 2021, Herbert passed for more than 5,000 yards while supporting two wide receivers who exceeded 1,000 receiving yards. Keenan Allen was one of them.
Last season, Allen faced injury setbacks and didn't participate in more than 60 percent of a game's snaps until Week 11. However, from Week 11 onward, he demonstrated his dominance by averaging 18.8 points per game in PPR scoring. This placed him ahead of CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle and Brown in terms of points per game. During this eight-game stretch, Allen had six games where he accumulated more than 80 receiving yards and four games in excess of 10 targets.
The fourth round has two targets for me in fantasy — Allen and Cooper. These two players are tied to quarterbacks who have thrown for more than 5,000 yards and to offenses that want to throw the ball.
Mike Williams, Chargers
Sleeper: 72 ESPN: 69
The top two passing options for the Chargers are buys at their average draft position. Williams is my preference because he goes later and has the more explosive role. The training camp talk has been about the Chargers pushing the ball down the field, and Williams will be the beneficiary on those targets.
Williams has led this team in targets farther than 15 yards down the field during the past two seasons. They drafted WR Quentin Johnston, an explosive player, but the rookie will be slowly implemented into the offense. Williams will be the offense's alpha for deep work.
In the late sixth round, you are getting a wide receiver with a quarterback who has thrown for more than 5,000 yards, an offense that will push the ball down the field and that matches his role. Williams is a smash at his average draft position.
These Five Won't Disappoint
I am flag-planting five wide receivers: Olave, Ridley, Cooper, Allen and Williams. Each comes with unique skill sets, favorable circumstances and promising trends that make them stand out flag plants for the upcoming season. Whether it's Olave's rookie brilliance, Ridley's fit into a dynamic offensive scheme, Cooper's upgrade in quarterback play or the addition of a talented offensive mind for Allen and Williams, these players offer a compelling blend of talent and opportunity.
As the fantasy draft season unfolds, keep an eye on these wide receivers — they have the potential to turn early-round selections into championship-caliber choices.
Follow Jordan Vanek on Twitter @JordanVanekDFS.
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