Fantasy

12/21/22

11 min read

Wheeler's Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Kev Wheeler

Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun (23) tackles Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) during the first quarter at Nissan Stadium Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. Nfl Jacksonville Jaguars At Tennessee Titans

Below you’ll find my Week 16 fantasy football rankings for PPR/half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-25 QB Rankings, top-50 RB Rankings, top-60 WR Rankings, and top-18 TE Rankings. I actually submit these rankings to two different rankings competitions, one with PPR scoring and the other with half-PPR. They are far more accurate for PPR simply because PPR scoring is less influenced by touchdowns.

When I look into weekly matchups, I only use the past five games of data. Anything that happened six weeks ago is just going to cloud our judgment. We are looking at a completely full slate with bye weeks being over, navigating injuries might prove to be the difference-maker, though.

Quarterback

Over the past five games, the Lions, Titans, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Bears have been allowing the most fantasy points to the QB position. Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, Geno Smith and Josh Allen appear to have the best matchups in Week 16. 

Rank QB Team Opp
1 Josh Allen BUF @ CHI
2 Patrick Mahomes II KC vs. SEA
3 Justin Fields CHI vs. BUF
4 Geno Smith SEA @ KC
5 Joe Burrow CIN @ NE
6 Tua Tagovailoa MIA vs. GB
7 Lamar Jackson BAL vs. ATL
8 Justin Herbert LAC @ IND
9 Kirk Cousins MIN vs. NYG
10 Dak Prescott DAL vs. PHI
11 Trevor Lawrence JAC @ NYJ
12 Daniel Jones NYG @ MIN
13 Aaron Rodgers GB @ MIA
14 Tom Brady TB @ ARI
15 Jared Goff DET @ CAR
16 Derek Carr LV @ PIT
17 Sam Darnold CAR vs. DET
18 Brock Purdy SF vs. WAS
19 Deshaun Watson CLE vs. NO
20 Nick Foles IND vs. LAC
21 Gardner Minshew II PHI @ DAL
22 Zach Wilson NYJ vs. JAC
23 Ryan Tannehill TEN vs. HOU
24 Kenny Pickett PIT vs. LV
25 Russell Wilson DEN @ LAR

Jalen Hurts is officially out of the Eagles Week 16 game against the Cowboys due to a sprained shoulder that he suffered during the Week 15 win over the Bears. The Eagles will turn to Gardner Minshew and all of the Minshew Maniacs are coming out of the wood-work. I’d recommend cooling your jets on the possibility of starting him in your fantasy line-up though. Minshew is an average quarterback with a boat-load of swag. He has a few inspiring come-from-behind victories, but lets not forget, he was playing from behind and in total YOLO-mode.

Seattle quarterback, Smith will likely be in a shoot-out this week in KC, but it will be bitter cold and wind could have an effect on the long passes he likes to throw to DK Metcalf.

Zach Wilson looks bad, like he could be Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell bad. So far he’s worse than Mark Sanchez or Sam Darnold.

 Darnold will remain the starter for the Carolina Panthers in Week 16. I have Darnold ranked higher than just about everyone while he’s facing the Detroit Lions' suspect pass defense in Week 16.

After three games Deshaun Watson has ZERO top-12QB performances.

Running Back

Most analysts look at fantasy points allowed when judging matchups, but for the running back position, I look at yards per carry (YPC) allowed. YPC is generally a misused metric that tells us less about running back efficiency but does give us a good indication of defensive efficiency. 

Running backs with the best Week 16 matchups are Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco against the Seahawks, Najee Harris against the Raiders, Alvin Kamara against the Browns, Dalvin Cook against the Giants, and Derrick Henry against the Texans. 

Rank RB Team Opp
1 Derrick Henry TEN vs. HOU
2 Austin Ekeler LAC @ IND
3 Josh Jacobs LV @ PIT
4 Dalvin Cook MIN vs. NYG
5 Saquon Barkley NYG @ MIN
6 Christian McCaffrey SF vs. WAS
7 Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs. CIN
8 Tony Pollard DAL vs. PHI
9 Nick Chubb CLE vs. NO
10 James Conner ARI vs. TB
11 Aaron Jones GB @ MIA
12 Alvin Kamara NO @ CLE
13 Jerick McKinnon KC vs. SEA
14 J.K. Dobbins BAL vs. ATL
15 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC @ NYJ
16 Raheem Mostert MIA vs. GB
17 Joe Mixon CIN @ NE
18 Najee Harris PIT vs. LV
19 Kenneth Walker III SEA @ KC
20 Ezekiel Elliott DAL vs. PHI
21 Miles Sanders PHI @ DAL
22 Isiah Pacheco KC vs. SEA
23 David Montgomery CHI vs. BUF
24 Latavius Murray DEN @ LAR
25 D'Andre Swift DET @ CAR
26 Rachaad White TB @ ARI
27 Devin Singletary BUF @ CHI
28 AJ Dillon GB @ MIA
29 Leonard Fournette TB @ ARI
30 Zonovan Knight NYJ vs. JAC
31 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS @ SF
32 Jamaal Williams DET @ CAR
33 Cam Akers LAR vs. DEN
34 Deon Jackson IND vs. LAC
35 Zack Moss IND vs. LAC
36 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL @ BAL
37 James Cook BUF @ CHI
38 Tyler Allgeier ATL @ BAL
39 Chuba Hubbard CAR vs. DET
40 Michael Carter NYJ vs. JAC
41 Antonio Gibson WAS @ SF
42 Kareem Hunt CLE vs. NO
43 D'Onta Foreman CAR vs. DET
44 Gus Edwards BAL vs. ATL
45 Jeff Wilson Jr. MIA vs. GB
46 Samaje Perine CIN @ NE
47 Royce Freeman HOU @ TEN
48 Jaylen Warren PIT vs. LV
49 Joshua Kelley LAC @ IND
50 Khalil Herbert CHI vs. BUF

We learned that when Rhamondre Stevenson is “active” we need to be secure that he is a solid start. Patriots Week 15 RB Snaps; Stevenson 43, Pierre Strong 14 and Kevin Harris 8. Patriots Week 15 RB Opportunity Share; Stevenson 64.7%, Strong 20.6% and Harris 14.7%.

J.K. Dobbins is the only Ravens RB we need to consider for fantasy. Week 15 RB snaps; Dobbins 23, Justice Hill 23, Gus Edwards 11. Week 15 RB opportunity share; Dobbins 60.9%, Edwards 30.4% and Hill 8.7%.

Jamaal Williams has been limited to 10.6, 9.5, 3.7 and 3.3 PPR points over his last four games. He’s scored a touchdown in two of those four games.

Houston Texans' offense without Dameon Pierce operated with a full RB committee. Royce Freeman led them in rushing with 11-51-0, Dare Ogunbowale went 8-14-0 and Rex Burkhead had 2 rec for 17 yds (4 tgts).

With Colts RB, Jonathan Taylor out for the season with a high-ankle sprain, back-ups Zack Moss and Deon Jackson had ample opportunity to grind-out the clock with a 33-0 lead, but couldn’t do anything with that opportunity.

Bears RB Khalil Herbert designated to return from IR, has practiced all week, and is activated for Week 16. He will likely cap David Montgomery, who has been averaging 15 touches and 64.5 total yards in Herbert’s absence.

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier has been emerging as the primary RB with Caleb Huntley (Achilles) out for the season and the decline of Cordarrelle Patterson, but he can only be considered low-end RB3 against Baltimore's stout run defense.

Wide Receiver

I examine a few different statistics when trying to find good or bad wide receiver matchups, but yards per game and fantasy points allowed are the primary gauges. 

Rank WR Team Opp
1 Justin Jefferson MIN vs. NYG
2 Tyreek Hill MIA vs. GB
3 Davante Adams LV @ PIT
4 Ja'Marr Chase CIN @ NE
5 Stefon Diggs BUF @ CHI
6 DK Metcalf SEA @ KC
7 A.J. Brown PHI @ DAL
8 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ CAR
9 CeeDee Lamb DAL vs. PHI
10 Jaylen Waddle MIA vs. GB
11 DeAndre Hopkins ARI vs. TB
12 Chris Godwin TB @ ARI
13 Keenan Allen LAC @ IND
14 Garrett Wilson NYJ vs. JAC
15 Tee Higgins CIN @ NE
16 Mike Williams LAC @ IND
17 Terry McLaurin WAS @ SF
18 Mike Evans TB @ ARI
19 DJ Moore CAR vs. DET
20 Christian Watson GB @ MIA
21 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC vs. SEA
22 Christian Kirk JAC @ NYJ
23 DeVonta Smith PHI @ DAL
24 Michael Pittman Jr. IND vs. LAC
25 Brandon Aiyuk SF vs. WAS
26 Jerry Jeudy DEN @ LAR
27 Chris Olave NO @ CLE
28 Zay Jones JAC @ NYJ
29 Amari Cooper CLE vs. NO
30 Diontae Johnson PIT vs. LV
31 Darius Slayton NYG @ MIN
32 Drake London ATL @ BAL
33 Gabe Davis BUF @ CHI
34 Adam Thielen MIN vs. NYG
35 Allen Lazard GB @ MIA
36 Marquise Brown ARI vs. TB
37 George Pickens PIT vs. LV
38 Jakobi Meyers NE vs. CIN
39 Joshua Palmer LAC @ IND
40 Brandin Cooks HOU @ TEN
41 Chris Moore HOU @ TEN
42 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE vs. NO
43 Elijah Moore NYJ vs. JAC
44 Marquise Goodwin SEA @ KC
45 DJ Chark Jr. DET @ CAR
46 Curtis Samuel WAS @ SF
47 Treylon Burks TEN vs HOU
48 Jahan Dotson WAS @ SF
49 Tyler Boyd CIN @ NE
50 Michael Gallup DAL vs. PHI
51 Mack Hollins LV @ PIT
52 Parris Campbell IND vs. LAC
53 Van Jefferson LAR vs. DEN
54 K.J. Osborn MIN vs. NYG
55 Richie James Jr. NYG @ MIN
56 Isaiah Hodgins NYG @ MIN
57 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC vs. SEA
58 Demarcus Robinson BAL vs. ATL
59 Alec Pierce IND vs. LAC
60 Russell Gage TB @ ARI
61 Isaiah McKenzie BUF @ CHI
62 Romeo Doubs GB @ MIA
63 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR vs. DET
64 Robert Woods TEN vs. HOU
65 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN vs. HOU

 

The Texans have allowed one WR1 (top-12) performance this year, and it came back in Week 1 (Michael Pittman). Treylon Burks practiced again on Wednesday after missing the past two games with a concussion. Burks is the only Titans WR with any chance at a top-12, or even a top-24, week.

Jerry Jeudy has averaged 19.5 PPR points per game over his last five full games.

Over the last three games Sauce Gardner has had 113 snaps in coverage, faced just 6 targets, allowing three catches and only 23 yards receiving. All three games were against a team that ranks top-8 in passing yards. The Jets play Jacksonville on Thursday night. 

There’s a good chance Corey Davis (concussion) will play for the Jets on Thursday, but the player to watch is Elijah Moore. Jacksonville has been the worst team at defending slot WRs over the past six weeks.

Tight End 

Over the past six weeks you looked smart starting a TE against the Jaguars, Cardinals, Dolphins, Falcons, and Titans. Mark Andrews should be able to get back on track in Week 16, and Tyler Conklin, Robert Tonyan, Cade Otton, and Jordan Akins could be viable streamers.

Rank Name Team Opp
1 Travis Kelce KC vs. SEA
2 Mark Andrews BAL vs. ATL
3 George Kittle SF vs. WAS
4 T.J. Hockenson MIN vs. NYG
5 Dalton Schultz DAL vs. PHI
6 Dallas Goedert PHI @ DAL
7 Evan Engram JAC @ NYJ
8 Darren Waller LV @ PIT
9 Pat Freiermuth PIT vs. LV
10 David Njoku CLE vs. NO
11 Gerald Everett LAC @ IND
12 Taysom Hill NO @ CLE
13 Dawson Knox BUF @ CHI
14 Greg Dulcich DEN @ LAR
15 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN vs. HOU
16 Cole Kmet CHI vs. BUF
17 Juwan Johnson NO @ CLE
18 Tyler Conklin NYJ vs. JAC
19 Noah Fant SEA @ KC
20 Robert Tonyan GB @ MIA
21 Cade Otton TB @ ARI
22 Jordan Akins HOU @ TEN
23 Hunter Henry NE vs. CIN
24 Tyler Higbee LAR vs. DEN

 

Mark Andrews has only scored 46.2 PPR points (under seven per game) over his last seven games.

Cole Kmet led the Bears in routes run and targets in their past two games. He averaged 2.5 targets per game from Weeks 1-8, but is averaging six targets per game since then (with Darnell Mooney out).

Jaguars' WR/TE Routes Run (Targets)

Evan Engram just had his first back-to-back games with double-digit targets since Weeks 8-9 of the 2020 season.

When examining these rankings, consider that I am really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex, a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within three spots of each other, the difference between them is negligible.

Good luck this week!

WATCH: QBs to Stream in Week 16

 

Tags: Fantasy Football Rankings

Kev Wheeler

Kev Wheeler is a former high school baseball and football coach who has been a fantasy football addict for more than 25 years. As a coach, Wheeler's teams accomplished five county and two regional championships. Wheeler has translated his on-field success to the fantasy football arena.

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