Analysis
11/5/22
7 min read
Week 9 Main Slate Underdog Player Props
After several weeks of being close, we finally did it. We went perfect on Thursday night, with all 3 of our player entries hitting. Now that we have half a season of data, our picks are improving, and we have gone 14-6 over the last two weeks. This brings our overall season total to 52-42-2. As a reminder, all our props are now on Underdog Fantasy. If you are new to Underdog, use the code "33rd" to get a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Trevor Lawrence HIGHER than 1.5 Pass TDs
We are targeting the Las Vegas defense again. Last week, Andy Dalton got over 14 fantasy points thanks to two passing touchdowns. Furthermore, teams have scored 2 or more passing touchdowns in 5 of 7 games this season against Vegas. That even includes 2 touchdowns to both Davis Mills and Russell Wilson. This isn’t as simple of a play as Dalton was last week. I worry about how good Travis Etienne has looked recently and how run-heavy the Jaguars have been in the red zone. In the previous 3 games, the Jaguars have run 16 plays within the 10-yard line. Of those 16 plays, 13 have been rushes. I still refuse to not target the Las Vegas pass defense, so I give it a 3/5 confidence and would not play it if it moves to 2.0.
Marcus Mariota LOWER than 181.5 Pass Yards
I imagine Arthur Smith is excited about this matchup against the Chargers. They have been horrific at stopping the run this week and rank dead last in yards per rush allowed. With the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being back this week—he was just activated from IR on Wednesday—the Falcons could be especially run-heavy this week.
This could also be a very ugly game based on the current state of the Chargers offense. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have already been declared out, so the Chargers are without their top two wide receivers. The Falcons have been frustrating to predict, and Mariota went above this line last week. Therefore, I only give this line a 3/5 confidence, and I would play it down to 175.5 pass yards.
Robert Tonyan HIGHER than 31.5 Receiving Yards
In one of the biggest surprises of the trade deadline, the Packers did not add any new receivers. With not much trust in his rookie wide receivers, Tonyan and Allen Lazard have been favorite targets for Aaron Rodgers throughout the season. As of writing this, Lazard is a game-time decision on Sunday. Last week Lazard did not play, and Tonyan led the team in targets with 6 and had 5 receptions for 35 receiving yards.
Detroit’s defense has been one to target this season. They give up the 9th-most receiving yards to tight ends and the 5th-most passing yards overall. I don’t think the defensive matchup is an important part of this play. But it helps add confidence to it because Tonyan hasn’t been able to get a lot of yards. Amazingly he has only one game over 36 receiving yards this season. With the possibility of Lazard playing, I give this entry a 4/5 for confidence and would play it up to 35.5
Jared Goff +1.5 Pass Attempts vs. Aaron Rodgers
This Rivals entry is one of the new types of entries we can play on Underdog. To play Jared Goff on this entry, we are predicting that Goff will have 1.5 or more pass attempts than Aaron Rodgers.
As mentioned before, the Detroit defense has been one to target all season. They are allowing the most yards and points so far this season, and I expect that to continue. The Packers are currently -3.5 favorites on most sportsbooks. In his three wins this season, Rodgers has averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game. In 6 losses, Jared Goff has 35.8 pass attempts. Based on that alone, this is a very good entry. Add in the possibility that Allen Lazard won’t play for the Packers and also the commitment to the run that the Packers showed last week, and I really like this line. I give this pick a 4/5 confidence and would play it to +2.5 for Goff.
Justin Fields HIGHER than 51.5 Rush Yards
The Bears have finally unlocked Justin Fields. Since his abysmal first two weeks, Fields has averaged 62.7 rush yards per game. In the last two weeks, the playcalling has noticeably changed. After averaging just above 3 designed rush attempts per game in his first 6 games, Fields had 13 in Week 7 and five in Week 8.
The Dolphins have also been prone to giving up rushing yards to great rushing quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson had a massive game on the ground against them in Week 2, totaling 119 rush yards against the Dolphins. Josh Allen also had 47 rush yards against the Dolphins, which is above his average rush yards per game this season. I really like this play and would give it a 4/5 confidence. It has already moved from its original yardage of 49.5 rush yards, so I wouldn’t play it much higher, and I would stop playing this entry at 55.5 rush yards.
Chris Godwin HIGHER than 6.5 receptions
According to PFF, the Los Angeles Rams run zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, as they have run zone coverage on 86.3% of plays this season. Chris Godwin leads the Buccaneers in target percentage against zone coverage, averaging 7.67 targets per game against it. This is incredibly impressive, especially since in the 6 games Godwin has played, they’ve faced zone coverage on 66% of plays. The lowest rate of zone coverage the Rams have played in a single game was 81.1% against the Cowboys in Week 5. With the Buccaneers likely facing the most zone coverage they have all season, I see Tom Brady looking to Godwin early and often. I give this pick 5/5 confidence and would play it over if it hits 7.0, but not any higher.
Will Dissly HIGHER than 2.0 Receptions
Like the Las Vegas pass defense, I will almost always have an entry that includes a tight end against the Arizona Cardinals. They give up 7 receptions to tight ends per game, the most in the NFL. When these two teams played just a few weeks ago, Seattle tight ends had 9 total receptions. While that sounds great for Dissly, that is a somewhat deceiving statistic as Will Dissly only had 1 reception on 1 target. Colby Parkinson had 2, and Noah Fant had 6.
I know what you’re thinking: why not take Fant at 3.0 receptions if he had 6 against the Cardinals the last time they played? Since that game in Week 7, Fant and Dissly have run the same number of routes, but Dissly has one more target and 3 more receptions. It is not a major difference, so I will happily take the discount on Dissly compared to Fant and count on him to have more than 2.0 receptions. Because of the history of tight ends against the Cardinals and the ability to tie the projection, I rate this a 5/5 in confidence and would play it even if it moves to 2.5 receptions.
DeAndre Hopkins HIGHER than 7.0 receptions
Since Hopkins’ return in Week 7, only 2 receivers have a higher target share than him: Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp. Hopkins has 22 receptions in only 2 games, and his high numbers are not only because Kyler Murray is passing a ton. In Week 7, Murray had his season low in pass attempts with 29, and Hopkins still had 14 targets and 10 receptions. Even if the Seattle defense, which has been below average, focuses on stopping Hopkins, he has proven throughout his career that he can beat defensive schemes and still see a high volume of receptions. With the potential to tie, I really like Hopkins to have more receptions than his projection and give it a 5/5 confidence. I would play it even higher and still take Hopkins if the projection moves to 8.0 receptions.
Entry of the Week
With Underdog having 6x payouts on entries with 3 players, I am taking advantage and pairing my three 5/5 confidence lines into a single entry. It just happens to be three entries that are taking higher on receptions (Chris Godwin, Will Dissly, DeAndre Hopkins), so let’s hope for a high passing volume in Week 9!
WATCH MORE: Head of Betting Chris Farley breaks down his best college football bet in Week 10.
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