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Week 16 DVOA Dispatch: Don't Overthink Things, Ride Bills', Chiefs' Offenses

Week 16 Bills Chiefs offenses

Our DVOA-adjusted pass and run game targets are back for Week 16!

Last week went well, with focus players Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Hurts, David Montgomery, J.K. Dobbins, and the Atlanta run game producing well, in line with our predictions.

Commensurate with my system, the passing attacks of the Bears, Rams, Cardinals, and Falcons, and rushing attacks of the Buccaneers, Chargers, and Colts were all underwhelming.

Passing Game Targets

Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle ranks 29th vs. TEs, so Travis Kelce is (once again) a great play at the position for those looking for the “safe” pay-up play. Patrick Mahomes is always a great option. Jerick McKinnon also catches his share of passes and gets to play a bad rush defense - more on that later.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady will look to right the ship and not allow this to be his first year helming a losing team. Even though it is a late game, you can expect him to be serviceable. The tough part is that the Cardinals are not good against TEs (31st), so pick your poison between Cade Otton and Cameron Brate.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen looks to keep the top AFC spot secure against the Bears in Chicago. The Bears are mediocre against non-slot WRs (17th), do not defend slot WRs well (28th), and allow the third-most points per game. So all the Bills are in play, weather permitting.

Minnesota Vikings

“Comeback” Kirk Cousins should aim squarely at T.J. Hockenson’s hands, because the Giants' defense is 30th against the position. New York is fairly decent vs. WRs in any alignment, but Justin Jefferson is another beast. I would play him any week that you can budget him into your lineup. Also, Dalvin Cook catches passes and faces the Giants’ 30th-ranked rush defense.

Miami Dolphins

The Packers take their talents to South Beach for a sunny matchup with Miami. Their defense is actually quite good against WRs (third) and struggles against the run (31st), so this rank perplexes me a bit. It may be that the Dolphins’ offense is so good that the system has them overcoming this obstacle. If I had to pick a skill player to trust most, it would be the one with the most opportunity: Tyreek Hill. Since Week 10, Hill averages 10.4 targets per game compared to Jaylen Waddle’s 6.2.

Passing game fades: Bears, Rams, Cardinals

Rushing Game Targets

Buffalo Bills

The Bills spread the ball around on the ground of late. Any of Devin Singletary, James Cook, or Nyheim Hines could get the call against the Bears. And that is if Josh Allen doesn’t call on himself first. This is rated as the best rush matchup this week in my system, so one or more of these guys could get you there.

Kansas City Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon, as alluded to earlier, gets quite the matchup this week against the Seahawks (28th), and is becoming an integral part of the Chiefs' offense. Don’t forget about Isiah Pacheco, who also shoulders a great share of the rushing duties.

Baltimore Ravens

All indications point to Lamar Jackson sitting another game out. J.K. Dobbins will be more than happy to step up to the plate for Baltimore as the centerpiece. He excelled last week and enters another good matchup against the Falcons (25th).

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts is out, so Miles Sanders gets the chance to prove his worth against the formidable Dallas rush defense (sixth). This is not a matchup that I am fond of including in my thought process for lineup building this week.

Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry seemingly gains steam over the final months of each season. Houston is only 23rd vs. the run, and was thrashed by the Chiefs on the ground last week, so dial Henry into your roster at RB.

Run game fades: Buccaneers, Chargers, Colts

(Stats courtesy of Football Outsiders and Trumedia Networks)