Betting
11/21/23
8 min read
Thanksgiving NFL Betting Preview: Everything You Need To Know
Everything you need to know about the three Thanksgiving games, along with the new Black Friday NFL game, is included below. Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, and Jordan Vanek detail matchups to consider when watching and betting on the games, along with who should be in your DFS player pool.
Throughout, you’ll be able to build an Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em entry with the guys, while also following along with Reynolds’ three-leg teaser.
This article was adapted from The 33rd Team’s Thanksgiving podcast.
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Thanksgiving Slate
Packers at Lions
Key injuries: RB Aaron Jones
Underdog HIGH/LOW Entry: Jordan Love HIGHER Than 33.5 Pass Attempts
Ryan’s Thanksgiving Teaser Leg: Lions +2.5
Top DFS Options: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, RB David Montgomery, WR Romeo Doubs
Packers on Offense
We have minimal confidence in the Green Bay Packers offense. Detroit’s pass rush can beat up on the Packers’ weaker offensive line. For DFS, all the Packers players are easy to play if you want to save salary, with Romeo Doubs being the most expensive. However, that’s for good reason. Detroit runs two defensive coverages more than 70 percent of the time: Cover 4 and Cover 3 Sky, and Doubs has 30 percent and 33 percent target shares, respectively, against those coverages.
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Lions on Offense
The Detroit Lions have the best offensive line in football, and Green Bay has a relatively weak run defense — David Montgomery could be in for a big day. Detroit is top-five in the league in passing and rushing, highlighting its balanced offense.
Austin Ekeler had a couple of carries vs. the Packers last week where he would have scored long touchdowns if he had Jahmyr Gibbs’ speed. You can get away with playing both Lions RBs in the same DFS lineup on this three-game slate.
TE Sam LaPorta has slowed down recently, probably due to both of Detroit’s RBs getting healthy, along with the presence of not just WR Amon-Ra St. Brown but Jameson Williams’ increased involvement. Last week, Chargers WR Quentin Johnston got open deep, and Williams should be able to do the same. He could catch a long touchdown and help you get different on the DFS slate. If he can return from injury, Packers CB Jaire Alexander might shadow St. Brown.
Overall, we don’t have too much interest in QB Jared Goff for DFS because it’s too easy for the Lions to win on the ground. With just three days to game plan for this matchup, Detroit likely will keep it simple with the run game. Goff could have 200 yards and one or two touchdowns, which shouldn’t break the slate.
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Commanders at Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -11
Total: 48.5
Key injuries: None
Underdog HIGH/LOW Entry: Brandin Cooks HIGHER Than 34.5 Receiving Yards
Ryan’s Thanksgiving Teaser Leg: Cowboys -1
Top DFS Options: QB Dak Prescott, QB Sam Howell, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Michael Gallup, WR Terry McLaurin, Cowboys DST
Commanders on Offense
The Dallas Cowboys’ pass rush has a massive trench advantage here, and Sam Howell could take five or more sacks. If Howell has time, the Washington Commanders’ skill group is good and deep. Dallas should give the Commanders a lot of Cover 1 Man and Cover 4 (prevent defense, once they have the lead). Terry McLaurin has the talent to separate from the Cowboys’ cornerbacks when they’re in man coverage.
Cowboys on Offense
Dallas’ pass-centric offense should thrive after what we saw from Tommy DeVito and company last week. Dak Prescott will face one of the NFL’s worst overall defensive unites, so 400 yards and multiple touchdowns are in play. The Commanders have a good interior defensive duo, but they have no edge rush now that Chase Young (49ers) and Montez Sweat (Bears) were traded.
The Commanders consistently give up big plays on go-routes. Prescott and CeeDee Lamb should be the starting stack for DFS, and then the double stack can come together with Michael Gallup or Jalen Tolbert, the two auxiliary Dallas receivers who run go-routes. Gallup has 21 percent of the team’s go-route targets.
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49ers at Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks +6.5
Total: 43
Key injuries: QB Geno Smith, RB Kenneth Walker
Underdog HIGH/LOW Entry: Christian McCaffrey LOWER Than 74.5 Rushing Yards
Ryan’s Thanksgiving Teaser Leg: 49ers +3.5
Top DFS Options: QB Brock Purdy, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR DK Metcalf, TE George Kittle, 49ers’ DST
49ers on Offense
The Seattle Seahawks pass rush is a middling and uninspiring group, and Brock Purdy should be heavily featured in your DFS player pool. The San Francisco 49ers can beat you in too many ways, and while the Seahawks' secondary has been solid if their front can’t generate much pressure, it will be a long day for Seattle fans. Overall, it’s tough to see the 49ers scoring fewer than 24 points.
The Seahawks probably will play Cover 3 to contain RB Christian McCaffrey. However, the 49ers like when teams go with Cover 3 because Brandon Aiyuk has been so dominant this season in those 1-on-1 situations on the outside. You should often stack Purdy with Aiyuk, and George Kittle is the preferred double-stack option. Kittle’s usage has been ticking up, and he’s been healthy and explosive recently.
Deebo Samuel is fine to rotate in, but he may need more things to go right to explode — like a trick play. McCaffrey will likely be in 50-60 percent of peoples’ DFS lineups, and he’s a scary fade. This is a situation where we should probably come in below the field on exposure to him for this DFS slate to get different. We will be focusing more on the 49ers’ passing game for our DFS player pool.
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Seahawks on Offense
Drew Lock against San Francisco’s pass rush is terrifying. The 49ers' DST is a great DFS play. RB Zach Charbonnet may get some fantasy points due to check-downs while Lock is under pressure. But, it’s tough to see a big ceiling from him because the 49ers haven’t blitzed more than four men very often since Chase Young joined the team. Young paired with Nick Bosa might be the defensive version of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, where it’s an impossible tandem for teams to properly account for most weeks.
Lock has a big arm and we should expect to see a few deep shots to DK Metcalf. Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have a more uphill battle to make you pay when you leave them out of your DFS lineups. Metcalf can enter your lineups with authority on just a couple big plays. The limiting factor when inserting Metcalf into your lineup is will the Seahawks’ offensive line hold up to the 49ers’ pressure.
Black Friday Game
Dolphins at Jets
Spread: Jets +10
Total: 41
Dolphins on Offense
The Miami Dolphins are a rhythm offense, and the New York Jets can pressure them and disrupt their timing. The Dolphins' offense will be much more fun to watch than the Jets'. While the Jets’ pass defense is elite, their run defense has been beatable, so the Miami running backs could have a solid day.
For DFS showdown, Jaylen Waddle is the preferred Dolphins receiver, but Tyreek Hill shouldn’t be faded. Miami will win by multiple scores if Waddle gets going.
Jets on Offense
QB Tim Boyle is a probable downgrade from Zach Wilson. Backup QB Trevor Siemian could take reps later in this game due to Boyle’s poor play. Miami’s defense is ascending, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s scheme has worked well recently. The Dolphins have a quality pass rush, which carried them last week against the Raiders.
RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson are the two best Jets for showdown, and each should get tons of work. WR/KR Xavier Gipson is the way to get different in DFS because the Jets might give him a couple of screen passes and see if he houses one.
Miami CB Jalen Ramsey is playing like the best corner in football right now, and the sneakiest showdown captain here is the Dolphins DST.
Join The 33rd Team’s FREE Discord for help each week with fantasy start-sits, prop betting picks, and DFS advice. Join now to chat with Josh, Ryan, and Jordan.
Reynolds' Thanksgiving Teaser
Reynolds doesn’t do a lot of action betting, but he does play a three-leg teaser every Thanksgiving. In general, he would prefer to play some underdogs in this type of teaser, but this is the way he sees it. Vanek says that the Commanders have the best shot for an upset this Thanksgiving, and Reynolds and Larky agree.
Ryan’s The 33rd Team Thanksgiving Teaser Record: 1-0
