Analysis
8/5/23
6 min read
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 Fantasy Football Team Preview
As we inch closer to opening day of the NFL season, we want to get you prepared for your fantasy football drafts. That process begins with our team previews, where we’ll break down each team’s offense while providing players we’re targeting and, in some cases, avoiding.
>> READ: Buccaneers Season Preview from Rondé Barber
Buccaneers Fantasy Football Team Preview
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (second season as Buccaneers HC)
Offensive Coordinator: Dave Canales (first season as Buccaneers OC)
Key Offensive Additions
Key Offensive Departures
- QB Tom Brady
- RB Leonard Fournette
- WR Breshad Perriman
- TE Cameron Brate
- OT Donovan Smith
- OG Shaq Mason
- K Ryan Succop
Key Offensive Rookies
- OT Cody Mauch — second-round draft pick
Points Per Game: 18.4 (25th)
Passing Yards: 269.8 (second)
Rushing Yards: 76.9 (32nd)
Vacated Targets: 231 (second)
Pass 69 percent Run 31 percent
Pace: Third
OL Rank: 17th
Quarterbacks
You could argue that the drop-off from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield is the biggest downgrade in stability that a team has suffered in NFL history. Between the quarterback downgrade and the change at offensive coordinator, we expect Tampa Bay’s passing game volume to decrease.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Mayfield’s fourth team since the start of the 2021 season. Mayfield is a pocket passer who has never eclipsed 4,000 yards passing in a season, and he’s only had one good year out of his five as a pro. Outside of best ball and Superflex leagues, Mayfield is a low-end streaming option that belongs on waivers in most leagues.
Should Mayfield falter, the Buccaneers could turn to their 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask. As a pro, Trask has only thrown nine passes while behind Brady. Trask is a traditional pocket passer that brings little value as a rusher. If he took over at quarterback in Tampa Bay, he too would be a low-end streaming option.
Running Backs
The Buccaneers were last in the league with 3.4 yards per carry in 2022, and this should once again be a subpar rushing attack. Rachaad White was inefficient as a rookie and now looks like the guaranteed starter with minimal competition for touches. He could very well tote the ball 15 times each week for just 50 yards per game, and this team was already the second-worst scoring offense in the NFC last season with Brady. Mayfield is probably a steep downgrade and should limit the touchdown upside of this ground game.
White’s saving grace is his pass catching. While his 50 rookie receptions are impressive, they came on just an eight percent target share, with Leonard Fournette out-pacing him in every receiving category. However, Fournette is no longer on the team, and White compiled 43 receptions for 456 yards in his final year at Arizona State. Realistically, White can finish third on this team in receptions behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and his fantasy value will depend almost entirely on this receiving workload. If he's involved in the passing game, he will look like James Conner from last year.
Behind White sits Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker. Vaughn is a former third-round pick who never panned out, but he has decent size, and his usage in college suggests he can play on all three downs. Currently, Vaughn looks like the highest probability dart throw to be the team’s RB2 on opening day.
Edmonds is a strong pass-catcher who fell out of favor with the Broncos and Dolphins last season. He should remain on waivers and is mainly a potential option for PPR leagues.
Tucker demonstrated he could be used on all three downs at Syracuse, with 1,496 rushing yards in 2021, before tallying 36 receptions in 2022. Injury concerns led to him going undrafted, but he’s more likely than Edmonds to take on a decent workload if he can make the 53-man roster and White goes down with an injury.
This could very well be the final product for the Tampa Bay backfield, but it’s among the NFL's weakest running back rooms. Adding another veteran should not be a surprise.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
Tampa Bay’s decreased passing game volume will hurt Godwin more than any other pass catcher on the roster. Godwin’s production relied heavily on screen passes the past two seasons, which will not be utilized as much in Dave Canales' system. Without screens, Godwin's targets per route run will drop considerably, making him a less appealing fantasy option. Godwin doesn’t have a lot of upside in the new offense, and there are receivers with much higher ceilings being drafted in his ADP range like Mike Williams, Diontae Johnson and Jerry Jeudy.
Evans will resemble DK Metcalf's role in Seattle, presenting some upside for explosive fantasy performances. While not a top target, Evans isn’t a fade because of his ability to put up explosive weeks, and he’s being drafted as a middle-of-the-pack wide receiver three.
Cade Otton is the only tight end to note on this roster, and he’s entering his second year after a solid rookie season. Otton isn’t someone to roster unless your league is extremely deep or starts two tight ends.
Dynasty Sell
Ian Miller: Sell Evans (WR39)
Evans has had a steady decrease in his peripherals, failing to post just a 20 percent target share in three straight seasons. But that was covered up with the league’s highest passing volume offense led by Brady. It will now be quarterbacked by Mayfield, and those falling peripherals could be exposed.
Buccaneers We’re Targeting or Avoiding in Fantasy Football
Josh Larky: None
Ryan Reynolds: None
Jordan Vanek: Avoid Godwin
Other Fantasy Previews
NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN
NFC West: SF | LAR | SEA | ARI
AFC East: BUF | MIA | NE | NYJ
AFC North: BAL| CLE | CIN | PIT
AFC South: HOU | IND | JAX | TEN
Follow our Team on Twitter
Josh Larky: @JLarkyTweets
Ryan Reynolds: @RyanReynoldsNFL
Jordan Vanek: @JordanVanekDFS
Ian Miller: @Dynasty_IM
Our data is provided by Sports Info Solutions, and our vacated targets figure is provided by Tru Media.
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