Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Chris Farley and Ben Wolbransky break down their favorite props and novelty picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
An in-depth betting breakdown of Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday:
Opening Spread: Eagles -2
Opening Game Total: 49.5
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (25.75), Chiefs (23.75)
Weather: Indoor venue.
Eagles: RT Lane Johnson, OG Landon Dickerson, Edge Robert Quinn, and CB Avonte Maddox were all held out of practice last week, but do not have an injury designation as of Monday night.
Chiefs: Out: WR Mecole Hardman. Questionable: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Kadarius Toney, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Snead.
At full strength, the Eagles have a top-five-level offensive line. Star right tackle Lane Johnson is playing through a torn groin muscle, while left guard Landon Dickerson has a hyperextended elbow. I’m still treating the Eagles’ offensive line as a top-five unit, but those injuries bring volatility to this otherwise outstanding group.
I have the Chiefs defensive front tiered as a fringe top-10 unit headlined by one of the NFL’s best interior defenders in Chris Jones. The Eagles have a moderate advantage in the trenches in this contest, though that margin could be reduced if Johnson or Dickerson’s injury situations trend down.
I have the Chiefs’ offensive line tiered as a top-10, bordering on a top-five group. I have the Eagles defensive front tiered as a top-five group. The Eagles led the league in sacks by a substantial margin with 70, and their front four has remarkable depth. The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is their interior, making this trench matchup a relative draw. The Eagles have a moderate advantage on the outside with a mild-to-moderate trench advantage overall.
Another factor in this trench matchup is Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. Mahomes played well against the Cincinnati Bengals, but it was clear his ability to extend plays was significantly reduced. We can reasonably expect Mahomes’ ankle to be better against the Eagles than it was against the Bengals, but likely he still won’t be fully recovered. He’ll also be facing one of the league’s premier fronts this week, while the Bengals’ pass rush is more of a bottom-10 unit.
This is a great matchup between the No. 1 seeds from each conference. The Eagles have the best roster in the league, while the Chiefs have been the measuring stick in the AFC for several years now. Both Mahomes and Hurts are MVP finalists.
Kansas City is making its third Super Bowl appearance in four years. The Eagles have a number of difference makers from their Super Bowl LII title run. The Eagles would have the Super Bowl experience advantage on a lot of teams, but not Kansas City. From their coaching staff to their roster, the Chiefs have a wealth of experience in this type of game environment.
These teams didn’t play each other this year, but they play in Week 4 of the 2021 season. The Chiefs went into Philadelphia and won that contest, 42-30. The Eagles’ roster is significantly better this season, and the Chiefs no longer have Tyreek Hill, who had 186 yards receiving and three scores in that contest. That’s why I’m largely throwing that game out when analyzing this year’s Super Bowl matchup.
I’ve said this many times since the beginning of the year: the Eagles have the best roster in the league. They have top-five lines on both sides of the ball, a top-10 secondary and a top-10 collection of pass catchers. Sanders finished the year fifth in the league in rushing, and Hurts is one of the MVP finalists. No other team can make all of those claims.
The Eagles are capable of a dominant performance in every phase, and they can win in multiple ways. We saw this on full display as the Eagles blew out the Giants, then the 49ers to get to this spot. Talent and versatility are the Eagles’ biggest edge in every game, including this one.
The Eagles tend to start games pass-heavy, while leaning on the run more once they’ve acquired a significant lead. One of the keys to this game is if Hurts starts hot, any opponent has their hands full. Even Mahomes’ Chiefs.
The Eagles’ pass catchers have the advantage against the Chiefs’ secondary. If the Eagles’ premium offensive line holds up against the Chiefs’ good – but not premium front – Philadelphia has a realistic path to breaching 30 points.
Similarly, the Eagles’ secondary has the advantage against Kansas City’s average receiver group. If the Eagles’ talented, extremely deep front can match even their standard level of disruption, Mahomes will have to make many big plays to win.
That brings us to the concerns you have as an Eagles’ bettor. Mahomes is a magician that just won the Conference Championship a week removed from suffering a high ankle sprain. On top of that, Reid is one of the greatest offensive strategists in the history of football. Betting against those guys is your primary concern whenever you’re betting against the Chiefs.
Pressure is your other principal concern as an Eagles bettor. The Super Bowl isn’t just a football game, it’s the most-watched annual sporting event in the United States. Hurts and a number of the best players on this loaded Eagles roster haven’t been in this spot before. That doesn’t preclude Hurts from playing well or winning this game, but it’s a condition you have to factor into your process as an Eagles bettor. Especially against a Chiefs team that consistently takes advantage of their opponent’s mistakes late in games.
As always, any bet on the Chiefs starts as a bet on Mahomes and Reid’s offense. Mahomes playing at the level he did against the Bengals in the AFC Championship is remarkable. That said, Kansas City’s offense didn’t exactly blow out the Bengals or Jaguars to get here. That means you’re either building a Chiefs bet around Mahomes’ ability to exceed expectations against a talent-rich Eagles defense, while still being injured, or you’re betting against Hurts.
From a pure talent perspective, the Eagles’ offense has a number of paths to exceeding expectations in this matchup. How this game ends up ultimately boils down to how well Hurts plays. Hurts has shown he has a similarly massive ceiling to the elite quarterbacks in the league, but he’s not as consistent as Mahomes or the other members of that true upper echelon. Hurts has played in a National Championship, but he’s never played in a Super Bowl. That level of pressure is a positive for Chiefs’ bettors as Kansas City is vastly more experienced in this environment.
Your primary concern as a Chiefs’ bettor is the Eagles’ overall roster advantage. The Chiefs have advantages at quarterback, tight end and head coach. Philadelphia has them everywhere else while having its own quality quarterback, tight end and coaching staff. The Eagles are capable of beating anyone by a fair margin.
Even if the Eagles start hot, one of the best things about a Chiefs bet is Kansas City isn’t done, because no lead is safe against Mahomes. Another major positive is, much like the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick New England Patriots, the Mahomes and Reid Chiefs take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes late in games. If Mahomes has the ball late in a one-score game, no Eagles fan or bettor is going to feel safe in that position.
Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Chiefs 20
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 61-45
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.
Two-game slates force a player to be close to perfect, and the normal rules do not exist. Play three pass-catchers with one quarterback, two running backs from the same team, or a player against your defense. I already broke down the matchups, so I want to take you position by position with my thoughts before telling you my favorite stack, favorite play, and favorite fade.
For the full breakdown of coverage analysis, click the link below!
We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link below.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/dfs/how-to-utilize-rostership-data-to-win-dfs-tournaments/
Chiefs
Quez Watkins
Deebo Samuel
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary | VegasPts |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | vs CIN | $7,600 | $8,500 | 24.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | vs SF | $7,200 | $9,200 | 24.25 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | @ KC | $6,800 | $8,300 | 23.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | @ PHI | $8,000 | $9,000 | 22.25 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | @ KC | $6,500 | $8,100 | 23.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | KC | vs CIN | $5,400 | $6,500 | 24.5 |
| Eli Mitchell | RB | SF | @ PHI | $4,900 | $5,600 | 22.25 |
| Samaje Perine | RB | CIN | @ KC | $4,500 | $5,300 | 23.5 |
| JaMarr Chase | WR | CIN | @ KC | $7,600 | $8,600 | 23.5 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | vs SF | $7,000 | $8,000 | 24.25 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | vs SF | $6,800 | $7,700 | 24.25 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | @ PHI | $5,700 | $7,000 | 22.25 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | @ KC | $5,400 | $6,700 | 23.5 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | vs CIN | $4,700 | $6,100 | 24.5 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | SF | @ PHI | $4,400 | $6,000 | 22.25 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | @ KC | $3,800 | $5,300 | 23.5 |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | KC | vs CIN | $3,700 | $5,600 | 24.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | KC | vs CIN | $3,600 | $5,100 | 24.5 |
| Quez Watkins | WR | PHI | vs SF | $3,100 | $4,800 | 24.25 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | vs CIN | $7,800 | $8,500 | 24.5 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | @ PHI | $5,200 | $6,800 | 22.25 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | vs SF | $4,100 | $6,400 | 24.25 |
| 49ers | DST | SF | @ PHI | $3,000 | $4,100 | 24.25 |
| Eagles | DST | PHI | vs SF | $2,800 | $4,600 | 22.25 |
| Chiefs | DST | KC | vs CIN | $2,500 | $4,200 | 23.5 |
| Bengals | DST | CIN | @ KC | $2,300 | $4,000 | 24.5 |
The Eagles have a tough matchup against the 49ers’ stout pass defense in the NFC Championship game, but there is one weakness to exploit. Jordan Vanek says Quez Watkins is a deep-threat wide receiver to target in your DFS lineups.
