Betting

Super Bowl LVII: Ultimate Guide Prop Betting, Office Pool Picks

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Chris Farley and Ben Wolbransky break down their favorite props and novelty picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

Super Bowl Squares Analysis

  • 3 and 0 (or 0 and 3) is your best bet
  • 0, 3 and 7 are the three best numbers in general
  • 4 and 7 (or 7 and 4) is an underrated pairing
  • 9, 2 and 8 are the three numbers to avoid

Game/Team Props

Shortest TD Yardage, UNDER 1.5 Yards (+150, Caesars)

  • The Eagles have become somewhat infamous for their success rate at QB sneaks and success in short-yardage/goal-line situations.
  • Each team has six games with a score of fewer than 1.5 yards.
  • Given those numbers, a 1-yard score should happen 47% of the time.
  • However, the implied odds indicate only a 40% chance, giving the under an edge.

Chiefs Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 0.5 (-130)

  • The Chiefs convert fourth downs at a rate of 77%, the second-best in the NFL.
  • Against one of the league’s best defenses and faced with the task of keeping pace with one of the most explosive offenses, Kansas City will most likely need to roll the dice to stay in the game.

Team to Score Longest TD, Eagles (-115)

  • The line has since moved to -135, but there is still value to be had there.
  • This year, the Eagles scored five touchdowns of over 40 yards, while the Chiefs only had four.
  • Touchdowns of 30-40 yards: Eagles six, Chiefs two.
  • Touchdowns of 20-29 yards: Eagles seven, Chiefs three.

 

First Sack (Team) Chiefs (+102, FanDuel)

  • Even though the Eagles led the league in sacks by an historic margin, the value for the Chiefs’ side makes them the pick here.
  • In Jalen Hurts’ 17 starts, the Eagles allowed eight sacks in the first quarter.
  • Conversely, in Patrick Mahomes’ 19 starts, the Chiefs only allowed three sacks in the first quarter.
  • The Eagles allowed 21 sacks in the first halves of Hurts’ starts; the Chiefs, only 13 sacks in 19 starts.
  • Finally, the Eagles have been better at sacking teams in the second half of games, when their opponents are down by multiple scores and trying to mount a comeback.

Eagles lead at Halftime, Chiefs lead End of Game, +650

  • Eagles have been the best halftime ATS team in the NFL this season.
  • They are also the highest-scoring first half team in the NFL, albeit the Chiefs are No. 2.
  • This fits both the narratives of the Eagles as a fast-starting team and the Chiefs as a come-from-behind team, thanks to Mahomes.

Player Props

Isiah Pacheco, OVER 16.5 Yards Receiving

First Reception, Travis Kelce (-120) or A.J. Brown (+112) (FanDuel)

  • Essentially, this comes down to who wins the coin flip, as these two players are the primary receivers for their respective teams.
  • In 19 games, Travis Kelce had a reception on 11 first drives.
  • A.J. Brown recorded 11 receptions on first drives as well with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
  • Given the more favorable odds for Brown, go with the Eagles WR1.

First Player to Reach 10 Yards Rushing, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+3,300)

  • This is quite the longshot, as this will be Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s first action since Week 11.
  • However, given that he is finally healthy and the Chiefs may want to feature their former first-round pick, 1-in-33 odds could make for a great payout.
  • With CEH returning to the lineup, the Chiefs may want to reintegrate him to the offense quickly to give them another option at running back.
  • How would they do that? Giving him plenty of touches, and thus increasing the likelihood he gets to 10 yards rushing first.
  • Furthermore, getting in on these odds before they become much more reasonable (+700-800) could create quite the edge.

First Touchdown Scorer

  • Jalen Hurts was second in the league in rushing touchdowns (13), despite missing a few games toward the end of the season.
  • Miles Sanders was eighth with 11.
  • Travis Kelce was second among all pass-catchers (12).
  • Along with A.J. Brown, in a pool, any of the aforementioned four are your best options.
  • But if you’re betting straight up, better to go with a longshot outlier, given the odds on the favorites.
  • With plenty of games on tape and nothing left to hold back, both coaches could reach deep into their bag of tricks to surprise the opposing defense.
  • Quez Watkins (+3500) or Skyy Moore (+4500) are among the more intriguing longshot options.

Travis Kelce, Anytime TD Scorer (-130)

  • Yeah, it’s pretty obvious.
  • But if the Eagles’ defense has any weakness, it’s over the middle against the linebackers, where Kelce already thrives.
  • Given the narratives surrounding the Kelces this week, it’s hard to imagine Travis not getting in the end zone.
  • Get in on this line as soon as possible, as some books still have it at -120 or even -110.

 

Jalen Hurts Passing TD Before Interception, (-280, Caesar’s Sportsbook)

  • The odds imply nearly a 74% chance of this happening.
  • Like many mobile quarterbacks, Hurts rarely throws interceptions to begin with, as he would rather tuck and run than force the ball into tight coverage.
  • In the 14 games where Hurts had a passing TD or an interception, 11 of those games featured him throwing the TD first (79%).
  • In addition to that math, the Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season.
  • Finally, only nine teams had fewer interceptions than the Chiefs.

First Sack (Player), Chris Jones or Josh Sweat

  • Chris Jones is the better option than pretty much any of the Eagles’ defenders because there are simply too many of them.
  • Jones is the guy for the Chiefs.
  • But if you really want an Eagle, the best value is probably Josh Sweat.
  • The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is its interior, so better to go with an edge rusher, especially one who will probably get more one-on-one opportunities than Haason Reddick or Brandon Graham.

Super Bowl MVP

  • Unlike in the regular season, the Super Bowl MVP is not solely a quarterback award, even though they win it 60% of the time vs. 85-90% in the regular season.
  • Ryan has Travis Kelce as the best bet, giving him +700-800 odds.
  • Last year’s MVP, Cooper Kupp, was +650.
  • Kelce has the best matchup by far among the Chiefs’ offensive weapons.
  • Mahomes already has a Super Bowl MVP, so the voters might not be looking to give it to him without an incredible performance.
  • Even though the winning QB is most likely to win, Kelce will get his targets regardless.
  • Finally, if any tight end were to become the first at his position to win Super Bowl MVP, it would probably be Kelce.
  • If you’re sticking with the Eagles, take the chalk and go with Hurts.
  • There’s some value to be had with the Philly defense, as shutting down Mahomes could go a long way toward winning the award.

 

Kadarius Toney OVER 49.5 Yards Receiving and Score TD (+1,000, FanDuel)

  • Kadarius Toney had 25% snap share of higher in five games for the Chiefs this year.
  • They want him to be 30-40% snap share.
  • In two of those five games, he had at least 57 yards receiving or scored a TD; in one, he did both.
  • It’s a long shot, but in the Super Bowl, anything can happen.

Novelty Props

Gatorade Color

  • Correlate the team’s general color with the Gatorade.
  • If you think the Eagles will win, go with green/lime or maybe even yellow.
  • If you think the Chiefs will win, pick red or orange.
  • Both teams have historical precedence with yellow and orange.

National Anthem Length

  • The line is higher than usual at two minutes, one second, with some books even moving it up to two minutes, four seconds.
  • Furthermore, the over is being juiced (-130, even to -145).
  • Per Ben Wolby’s analysis, Chris Stapleton’s songs, albums and performances are significantly longer than other artists.

Rihanna’s First Song, Outfit

  • In Super Bowls past, Katy Perry opened with “Roar”, Lady Gaga started with “Edge of Glory” and Coldplay began with “Viva La Vida”.
  • All are relatively upbeat songs with discussions of victory, historical success, etc.
  • “Diamonds” or “Umbrella,” therefore, are the frontrunners.
  • Plus, in every video, she was wearing black.
  • However, the in-house Rihanna “stan” himself, Josh Larky, counters with “Please Don’t Stop The Music,” (+150) as a fast-paced, solo feature to get the crowd riled up.
  • But Larky and Reynolds agree that black is the color of choice.

WATCH: Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview

Betting

Super Bowl LVII Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Chiefs vs. Eagles

An in-depth betting breakdown of Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday:

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Spread: Eagles -2

Opening Game Total: 49.5

Opening Team Totals: Eagles (25.75), Chiefs (23.75)

Weather: Indoor venue.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Eagles +2 but became Eagles -2 a few hours later
  • This line has settled in at Eagles -1.5
  • This total opened at 49.5 points
  • This total has moved up to 50.5 points

Notable Injuries

Eagles: RT Lane Johnson, OG Landon Dickerson, Edge Robert Quinn, and CB Avonte Maddox were all held out of practice last week, but do not have an injury designation as of Monday night.

Chiefs: Out: WR Mecole Hardman. Questionable: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Kadarius Toney, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Snead.

Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

At full strength, the Eagles have a top-five-level offensive line. Star right tackle Lane Johnson is playing through a torn groin muscle, while left guard Landon Dickerson has a hyperextended elbow. I’m still treating the Eagles’ offensive line as a top-five unit, but those injuries bring volatility to this otherwise outstanding group.

I have the Chiefs defensive front tiered as a fringe top-10 unit headlined by one of the NFL’s best interior defenders in Chris Jones. The Eagles have a moderate advantage in the trenches in this contest, though that margin could be reduced if Johnson or Dickerson’s injury situations trend down.

Regular-Season Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • Philadelphia is 8-9 against the spread this season
  • The Eagles are 10-7 on overs this season
  • Jalen Hurts is 17-16-1 against the spread in his career
  • Hurts is 20-14 on overs in his career
  • Nick Sirianni is 16-17-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
  • Sirianni is 20-14 on overs in his NFL head coaching career

Eagles Offense (Regular Season)

  • Philadelphia scored 28.1 points per game, good for third in the league
  • The Eagles are ninth in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing
  • Philadelphia passes on 56% of plays and runs on 44%, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per The Edge, Hurts is fourth among quarterbacks in yards rushing (760) and second among all runners in rushing touchdowns (13), despite missing two games
  • Miles Sanders is fifth in the league in yards rushing with 1,269, and he’s eighth in rushing touchdowns with 11
  • A.J. Brown is 12th in the league in receptions (88), fourth in yards receiving (1,496), tied for third in receiving touchdowns (11), eighth in target share (28.7%) and seventh in air yards share (39.4%)
  • DeVonta Smith is 10th in the league in receptions (95), ninth in yards receiving (1,196), tied for 15th in receiving touchdowns (7) and 15th in target share (26.9%) with a 30.2% air yards share
  • Quez Watkins breached 40 yards receiving just twice this season
  • Despite missing five games, Dallas Goedert was 12th among tight ends in receptions (55), seventh in yards receiving (702), 19th in touchdowns (3), seventh in target share (19.4%) and 13th in air yards share (15%)
  • Per TruMedia, Brown has played 647 snaps on the perimeter and 287 in the slot
  • Brown is sixth in the league in yards after the catch, and he’s third among non-running backs
  • Smith has played 789 snaps on the perimeter and 222 in the slot
  • Watkins has played 179 snaps on the perimeter and 460 in the slot
  • Goedert has played 412 snaps as an inline tight end, 63 on the perimeter, and 195 in the slot

 

Eagles Offense (Playoffs)

  • The Eagles scored 38 points in the Divisional Round against the New York Giants and 31 against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship
  • Hurts had 154 yards passing against the Giants; 121 against the 49ers
  • Philadelphia ran for 268 yards against the Giants; 148 against the 49ers
  • In those two games, Sanders had 28 carries, Kenneth Gainwell had 26 and Boston Scott had 12. Hurts added another 20 carries
  • In the first half against the 49ers, Sanders had 10 carries, Gainwell had three and Scott had two. Both of Scott’s carries came in the final minute of the first half
  • The Eagles held the Giants and 49ers to seven points apiece
  • The Eagles were in control against the Giants from the beginning, while Philadelphia began to pull away from the 49ers towards the end of the first half
  • Expect Philadelphia’s running back deployments to more closely mimic those in the first half against the 49ers, rather than the total running back carries during the Eagles’ first two playoff games
  • In the playoffs, Brown has 14 total targets, Smith has 13, Goedert has 11, Zach Pascal has two, Gainwell has two and Sanders, Watkins and Jack Stoll have one each
  • The Eagles passing attack generally flows through their core of Brown, Smith and Goedert. Each of those players is in a neutral or better matchup, as is Watkins
  • One of the challenges of betting on Eagles’ skill position players is, in most matchups, every member of their core has a realistic path to exceeding expectations

Chiefs Defense (Regular Season)

  • Kansas City allowed 21.7 points per game (16th in the league)
  • The Chiefs are second in the league in sacks, 18th in forced fumbles and 21st in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, Kansas City allowed the 25th-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • The Chiefs gave up the 18th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Kansas City gave up the seventh-most PPR points per game to slots receivers this year
  • The Chiefs allowed the 20th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
  • Kansas City has allowed the most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot this year

Chiefs Offense vs. Eagles Defense

I have the Chiefs’ offensive line tiered as a top-10, bordering on a top-five group. I have the Eagles defensive front tiered as a top-five group. The Eagles led the league in sacks by a substantial margin with 70, and their front four has remarkable depth. The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is their interior, making this trench matchup a relative draw. The Eagles have a moderate advantage on the outside with a mild-to-moderate trench advantage overall.

Another factor in this trench matchup is Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. Mahomes played well against the Cincinnati Bengals, but it was clear his ability to extend plays was significantly reduced. We can reasonably expect Mahomes’ ankle to be better against the Eagles than it was against the Bengals, but likely he still won’t be fully recovered. He’ll also be facing one of the league’s premier fronts this week, while the Bengals’ pass rush is more of a bottom-10 unit.

Regular Season Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • Kansas City is 7-10 against the spread this season
  • The Chiefs are 8-9 on overs this season
  • Mahomes is 41-37-2 against the spread in his career
  • Mahomes is 42-37-1 on overs in his career
  • Andy Reid is 197-166-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach
  • Reid is 181-178-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach

Chiefs Offense (Regular Season)

  • Kansas City scored 29.2 points per game, which was the best in the league
  • The Chiefs are first in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing
  • Kansas City passes on 67% of plays and runs on 33% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per The Edge, Isiah Pacheco had at least 58 yards rushing in eight of his last nine regular season games
  • Jerick McKinnon had a touchdown in each of his last six regular season games (a total of nine scores during that span)
  • Pacheco has been the Chiefs’ primary ball carrier since Week 10 against the Jaguars, while McKinnon took on the bulk of the passing game and goal-line work
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster finished the regular season with 78 receptions for 933 yards receiving and three touchdowns on a 17.1% target share and a 17.2% air yards share
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling finished the regular season with 42 receptions for 687 yards receiving and two touchdowns on a 13.2% target share and a 25.5% air yards share
  • Travis Kelce finished the regular season with the third most receptions in the league (110), eighth in yards receiving (1,338) and second in receiving touchdowns (12)
  • Kelce finished third among tight ends in target share (24.9%) and third in air yards share (24.2%)
  • Per TruMedia, Smith-Schuster played 433 snaps on the perimeter and 298 in the slot
  • Valdes-Scantling played 469 snaps on the perimeter and 264 in the slot
  • Skyy Moore has played 148 snaps on the perimeter and 143 in the slot
  • Kadarius Toney has played 70 snaps on the perimeter and 60 in the slot
  • Kelce played 321 snaps as an inline tight end, 223 on the perimeter, and 313 in the slot this season

 

Chiefs Offense (Postseason)

  • Kansas City scored 27 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round and 23 against the Bengals in the AFC Championship
  • Mahomes threw for 195 yards passing against the Jaguars and 326 against the Bengals
  • Chad Henne added 23 yards passing against the Jaguars
  • Pacheco led the Chiefs in carries against the Jaguars (12) and Bengals (10). His six targets against the Bengals doubled his previous career high of three in a single game
  • McKinnon had 11 carries against the Jaguars and just four carries with four targets against the Bengals. McKinnon was largely ineffective in both contests
  • Kelce has 25 total targets over both playoff games, including 17 against the Jaguars
  • Kelce has a 34.2% target share and a 30% air yards share in the playoffs
  • After just one catch for 6 yards receiving against the Jaguars, Valdes-Scantling led the Chiefs with a 6-116-1 line on eight targets against the Bengals
  • Smith-Schuster has been held to three receptions for 36 yards receiving in the playoffs
  • Toney saw seven targets against the Jaguars but left the AFC Championship early because of an ankle injury
  • With Toney, Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman all limited or out with injuries, Moore saw seven targets against the Bengals after just one against the Jaguars

Eagles Defense (Regular Season)

  • Philadelphia allowed 20.2 points per game, which is eighth in the league
  • The Eagles led the league in sacks, were seventh in forced fumbles and fourth in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, Philadelphia allowed the 22nd-most yards rushing per game and the 20th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • The Eagles gave up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Philadelphia allowed the 19th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season

This Is What You’re Betting On

This is a great matchup between the No. 1 seeds from each conference. The Eagles have the best roster in the league, while the Chiefs have been the measuring stick in the AFC for several years now. Both Mahomes and Hurts are MVP finalists.

Kansas City is making its third Super Bowl appearance in four years. The Eagles have a number of difference makers from their Super Bowl LII title run. The Eagles would have the Super Bowl experience advantage on a lot of teams, but not Kansas City. From their coaching staff to their roster, the Chiefs have a wealth of experience in this type of game environment.

These teams didn’t play each other this year, but they play in Week 4 of the 2021 season. The Chiefs went into Philadelphia and won that contest, 42-30. The Eagles’ roster is significantly better this season, and the Chiefs no longer have Tyreek Hill, who had 186 yards receiving and three scores in that contest. That’s why I’m largely throwing that game out when analyzing this year’s Super Bowl matchup.

If You’re Betting on the Eagles

I’ve said this many times since the beginning of the year: the Eagles have the best roster in the league. They have top-five lines on both sides of the ball, a top-10 secondary and a top-10 collection of pass catchers. Sanders finished the year fifth in the league in rushing, and Hurts is one of the MVP finalists. No other team can make all of those claims.

The Eagles are capable of a dominant performance in every phase, and they can win in multiple ways. We saw this on full display as the Eagles blew out the Giants, then the 49ers to get to this spot. Talent and versatility are the Eagles’ biggest edge in every game, including this one.

The Eagles tend to start games pass-heavy, while leaning on the run more once they’ve acquired a significant lead. One of the keys to this game is if Hurts starts hot, any opponent has their hands full. Even Mahomes’ Chiefs.

The Eagles’ pass catchers have the advantage against the Chiefs’ secondary. If the Eagles’ premium offensive line holds up against the Chiefs’ good – but not premium front – Philadelphia has a realistic path to breaching 30 points.

Similarly, the Eagles’ secondary has the advantage against Kansas City’s average receiver group. If the Eagles’ talented, extremely deep front can match even their standard level of disruption, Mahomes will have to make many big plays to win.

That brings us to the concerns you have as an Eagles’ bettor. Mahomes is a magician that just won the Conference Championship a week removed from suffering a high ankle sprain. On top of that, Reid is one of the greatest offensive strategists in the history of football. Betting against those guys is your primary concern whenever you’re betting against the Chiefs.

Pressure is your other principal concern as an Eagles bettor. The Super Bowl isn’t just a football game, it’s the most-watched annual sporting event in the United States. Hurts and a number of the best players on this loaded Eagles roster haven’t been in this spot before. That doesn’t preclude Hurts from playing well or winning this game, but it’s a condition you have to factor into your process as an Eagles bettor. Especially against a Chiefs team that consistently takes advantage of their opponent’s mistakes late in games.

 

If You’re Betting on the Chiefs

As always, any bet on the Chiefs starts as a bet on Mahomes and Reid’s offense. Mahomes playing at the level he did against the Bengals in the AFC Championship is remarkable. That said, Kansas City’s offense didn’t exactly blow out the Bengals or Jaguars to get here. That means you’re either building a Chiefs bet around Mahomes’ ability to exceed expectations against a talent-rich Eagles defense, while still being injured, or you’re betting against Hurts. 

From a pure talent perspective, the Eagles’ offense has a number of paths to exceeding expectations in this matchup. How this game ends up ultimately boils down to how well Hurts plays. Hurts has shown he has a similarly massive ceiling to the elite quarterbacks in the league, but he’s not as consistent as Mahomes or the other members of that true upper echelon. Hurts has played in a National Championship, but he’s never played in a Super Bowl. That level of pressure is a positive for Chiefs’ bettors as Kansas City is vastly more experienced in this environment.

Your primary concern as a Chiefs’ bettor is the Eagles’ overall roster advantage. The Chiefs have advantages at quarterback, tight end and head coach. Philadelphia has them everywhere else while having its own quality quarterback, tight end and coaching staff. The Eagles are capable of beating anyone by a fair margin.

Even if the Eagles start hot, one of the best things about a Chiefs bet is Kansas City isn’t done, because no lead is safe against Mahomes. Another major positive is, much like the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick New England Patriots, the Mahomes and Reid Chiefs take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes late in games. If Mahomes has the ball late in a one-score game, no Eagles fan or bettor is going to feel safe in that position.

Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Chiefs 20

Ryan’s Recent Betting Record

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 48-32

Props 2022: 61-45

 

DFS

Previewing the Conference Championship DFS Slate

If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.

Two-game slates force a player to be close to perfect, and the normal rules do not exist. Play three pass-catchers with one quarterback, two running backs from the same team, or a player against your defense. I already broke down the matchups, so I want to take you position by position with my thoughts before telling you my favorite stack, favorite play, and favorite fade.

For the full breakdown of coverage analysis, click the link below!

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/dfs/defensive-coverage-breakdown-for-every-conference-championship-team/

We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link below.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/dfs/how-to-utilize-rostership-data-to-win-dfs-tournaments/ 

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes

  • Patrick Mahomes is not coming in popular with that ankle injury
  • In 2019, he had a high ankle sprain in Week 1 on the opposite foot, and in the next six weeks on the injury report averaged 300.3 yards passing and two passing touchdowns
  • The Cincinnati Bengals will likely play Cover 0 and Cover 1 at a high rate; Mahomes ranked ninth in yards per attempt amongst QBs with at least 100 snaps against it
  • Pair Mahomes with two pass-catchers in every build; for large field tournaments, three can be viable

Jalen Hurts

  • The San Francisco 49ers will play a lot of zone coverage, and Jalen Hurts ranked third in yards per attempt against zone amongst QBs with 100 snaps against it
  • Hurts is the only QB on the slate with an ability to run, and I expect him to use his legs against this 49ers defense
  • The game script can go either way, and I believe we will see a big game from Hurts
  • Hurts is my favorite quarterback on the slate, and I am willing to eat the chalk

Joe Burrow

  • The Kansas City Chiefs will run a lot of Cover 1 or Cover 2 coverage against Burrow
  • Joe Burrow averages 8.6 yards per attempt and a 70.4% completion percentage against these two coverages
  • Against the Chiefs, Burrow led seven drives of at least eight plays. Five of his drives lasted four minutes of game time, and they will likely attempt to do that again
  • The ceiling game for Burrow comes down to the offensive line holding up and his ability to continue attempting quick yardage throws
  • Burrow is ranked third amongst QBs, and I will be underweight compared to the field

Brock Purdy

  • I will not be playing Brock Purdy this weekend; the pricing doesn’t generate enough of an advantage for paying down, and I don’t believe he has a high enough ceiling

 

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey

  • The 49ers have the advantage in the run game, and Christian McCaffrey is chalk I am willing to buy into
  • McCaffrey has an injury to monitor, but Shanahan knows he has to dial up the run game for his rookie quarterback on the road
  • The Eagles have given up over 100 yards rushing in six straight weeks
  • The trenches tool gives the 49ers a significant advantage in the run game
  • If you are not playing McCaffrey, I recommend getting to Elijah Mitchell

Joe Mixon

  • Slow, methodical drives will lead to Joe Mixon rushing attempts 
  • Mixon did not play in the first matchup. Samaje Perine ran for 106 yards and had six receptions for 49 yards
  • Mixon is a target for Burrow out of the backfield and will get usage near the red zone
  • I don’t believe Mixon is a must-have, but the slate of RBs is weak, and it won’t take a big game to be in the optimal build

Jerick McKinnon

  • Jerick McKinnon is the Chiefs running back I want because of his ability to pass protect. Isiah Pacheco will out-carry him, but McKinnon will make it up in the passing game
  • McKinnon played 65% of the snaps against the Jaguars, and I believe that was because of the Mahomes’ injury
  • McKinnon is projected to be more popular than Pacheco

Miles Sanders

  • I will not be getting Miles Sanders; I think the Eagles throw a lot more than run, and near the red zone, it will be Hurts

Elijah Mitchell

  • McCaffrey is nursing an injury, and so is Mitchell, but I expect him to get enough carries to be viable
  • Mitchell is my preferred punt play at running back because I expect the 49ers to be run-heavy

Samaje Perine

  • Perine played extremely well against the Chiefs and has played over 40% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks
  • The only problem with Perine is he is more popular than Mitchell, and Mitchell will likely see more touches

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase

  • The most popular wide receiver on the entire slate, and it’s for a good reason
  • Ja’Marr Chase averages 139 yards against the Chiefs and has four touchdowns in three games
  • This season, he came off an injury and had seven receptions for 97 yards in that game, and whenever they saw Cover 1, it was an easy play for him to make
  • If the Chiefs can play Cover 2 for most of the game, I don’t believe he will have a big game to pay off the price. If they get the lead and force them into Cover 1, the explosive play is just waiting to happen

A.J. Brown

  • The 49ers’ corners can be beaten on the outside, and A.J. Brown will be able to out-physical them the way we saw DK Metcalf do in the wild-card round
  • If the 49ers attempt to play more Cover 3 coverage, Brown will be the player to have, but in Cover 4, Smith has been the preferred option
  • Crossing routes have hurt the 49ers this season, and Brown has 19% of his targets on these routes

DeVonta Smith

  • DeVonta Smith has been the go-to for the Eagles against Cover 4, and in games where the 49ers will have the lead or be in a one-score game, they will play plenty of that coverage
  • Smith has had eight targets in every game since Week 10, and I don’t think he will be under that number in this one
  • Brown has the highest ceiling, but Smith can have a big game

 

Deebo Samuel

  • I don’t trust Purdy enough to make plays down the field against a defense that is one of the best in the NFL. Deebo Samuel has not been getting much usage in the ground game to compensate for that

Tee Higgins

  • Burrow spreads the ball against Cover 2 coverage, and I think that style of play will limit the pass-catching group
  • Tee Higgins is priced in a spot where he will be popular, but it is chalk I am willing to go to because he has a high ceiling
  • In Cover 1, I expect Chase to be the main focus for this defense, and they will try to trust their corners on an island vs. Higgins

JuJu Smith-Schuster

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster is not great against man coverage. However, he will have the opportunity to run routes one on one with Eli Apple, and can win in that matchup

Brandon Aiyuk

  • The Eagles’ safeties stay over the middle of the field, and James Bradberry gets beat in man situations down the sidelines
  • The only concern I have for Brandon Aiyuk is Purdy’s ability to make the throw, but out of the 49ers’ pass-catchers, he is my preferred option

Tyler Boyd

  • Tyler Boyd led the team in yards against Cover 2 coverage and is someone Burrow likes to target
  • In Burrow stacks, I will get plenty of exposure to Boyd

Kadarius Toney

  • Kadarius Toney is the most explosive player after the catch for the Chiefs, and I believe he is key to their offense performance.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  • The Bengals will play man-to-man coverage and bring pressure; the deep play will be there for the Chiefs’ pass catchers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Quez Watkins

  • Quez Watkins is my favorite option under $4,000, and I believe he will have the opportunity to have a big play touchdown in the game

 

Tight End

Travis Kelce

  • Travis Kelce will get plenty of work in this game, and you shouldn’t be concerned about what he can do
  • The Bengals have a great scheme, but the chemistry between Mahomes and Kelce is too great

George Kittle

  • George Kittle scares me off because of his price and because he might be needed a lot more in pass protection and blocking in the run game
  • Kittle has a defensive scheme he can play well against, but like the wide receivers, I am not sure that Purdy can get the job done

Dallas Goedert

  • The 49ers have one of the best linebacking crews in the NFL, but they will have plenty to deal with against this Eagles’ run game and wide receiver room
  • Dallas Goedert is way too cheap on DraftKings, and is a strong play on the slate

Hayden Hurst

  • Like the quarterback position this weekend, I don’t think Hayden Hurst can keep pace with the top portion of the tight end room

Defense/Special Teams

49ers

  • The 49ers are viable, and I will be loading up those builds with the Chiefs-Bengals game

Eagles

  • The safest defense on the slate is the Eagles’; they are at home and going up against a rookie quarterback
  • I would correlate them with Hurts’ stacks because you want them to play with the lead and get after Purdy

Chiefs

  • Their defensive line is very motivated, and I am not buying into how well the Bengals’ offensive line played against the Bills
  • Chris Jones can be a game-wrecker, and I will be banking on him in this matchup

Bengals

  • Lou Anarumo has slowed this team down and confused them in coverages
  • They are the cheapest defense on the slate against a limited Patrick Mahomes

 

Favorite Stacks

  • QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, WR Quez Watkins
    • Runback: RB Christian McCaffrey
  • QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Kadarius Toney, TE Travis Kelce
    • Runback: WR Ja’Marr Chase
  • QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tyler Boyd
    • Runback: WR Kadarius Toney

Favorite Play

Quez Watkins

Favorite Fade

Deebo Samuel

Player Pool

Player Pos Team Opp DK Salary FD Salary VegasPts
Patrick Mahomes QB KC vs CIN $7,600 $8,500 24.5
Jalen Hurts QB PHI vs SF $7,200 $9,200 24.25
Joe Burrow QB CIN @ KC $6,800 $8,300 23.5
Christian McCaffrey RB SF @ PHI $8,000 $9,000 22.25
Joe Mixon RB CIN @ KC $6,500 $8,100 23.5
Jerick McKinnon RB KC vs CIN $5,400 $6,500 24.5
Eli Mitchell RB SF @ PHI $4,900 $5,600 22.25
Samaje Perine RB CIN @ KC $4,500 $5,300 23.5
JaMarr Chase WR CIN @ KC $7,600 $8,600 23.5
A.J. Brown WR PHI vs SF $7,000 $8,000 24.25
DeVonta Smith WR PHI vs SF $6,800 $7,700 24.25
Deebo Samuel WR SF @ PHI $5,700 $7,000 22.25
Tee Higgins WR CIN @ KC $5,400 $6,700 23.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR KC vs CIN $4,700 $6,100 24.5
Brandon Aiyuk WR SF @ PHI $4,400 $6,000 22.25
Tyler Boyd WR CIN @ KC $3,800 $5,300 23.5
Kadarius Toney WR KC vs CIN $3,700 $5,600 24.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC vs CIN $3,600 $5,100 24.5
Quez Watkins WR PHI vs SF $3,100 $4,800 24.25
Travis Kelce TE KC vs CIN $7,800 $8,500 24.5
George Kittle TE SF @ PHI $5,200 $6,800 22.25
Dallas Goedert TE PHI vs SF $4,100 $6,400 24.25
49ers DST SF @ PHI $3,000 $4,100 24.25
Eagles DST PHI vs SF $2,800 $4,600 22.25
Chiefs DST KC vs CIN $2,500 $4,200 23.5
Bengals DST CIN @ KC $2,300 $4,000 24.5

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