Analysis
11/11/22
11 min read
Serious Issues Remain with Rodgers, Packers' Offense, but It's Fixable
The Green Bay Packers are in a "gotta have it" moment in their season. At 3-6, having lost their last five games, they are left hanging by a thread in the NFC North behind the 7-1 Vikings. Although an NFL season is fluid and anything is possible, the next two weeks will likely determine the overall direction of their season.
Fortunately, the Packers have the competitive advantage of playing two home games at Lambeau Field in a five-day window, facing Dallas on Sunday and Tennessee on Thursday night. After watching the Packers play over the past few weeks, there is so much to talk about because there are issues on so many levels. But there are some specific considerations that could help them improve.
The first thing to address is that, although Rodgers' production has dipped, it is very clear from the tape that his ability to throw the football, extend plays with his legs, and his highly competitive fire has not in any way regressed. Over the last few weeks alone there have been several elite throws that would be unique to most quarterbacks but seem ordinary for Rodgers and have been part of his arsenal throughout his career. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game and remains one of the best in the league.
It's no secret, however, that the personnel on offense around Rodgers has changed this year. They lost a game-changing wide receiver in Davante Adams and were not able to adequately replace him. Most notably, the Packers traded two second round picks to move up to no. 34 in the 2022 NFL Draft to select WR Christian Watson who has made a minimal impact in his first year while dealing with injuries. Aside from simply having a reliable target outside, this offense is missing the open space Adams created by drawing significant attention from opposing defenses. The Packers' replacements have not consistently separated from man-to-man coverage and made plays when they have been most needed.
Green Bay has also dealt with a litany of injuries to their offensive line, causing a typically strong unit to struggle this season. With Aaron Jones also dealing with a nagging ankle injury, the team hasn't been able to consistently rely on the ground game over recent weeks and the offense has become disjointed.
Regardless of who plays or who sits for the Packers this week, they have one of the best to ever play leading the team. Yes, he has spoken out that he has to play better, but what can be done to allow those around him to play better as well? Here are 10 things that could help Rodgers and the Packers offense:
1. Return to Fundamentals
Every coach will tell you that when things aren't going well, it all comes back to focusing on fundamentals. Let's reinforce each day that fundamentals start, regardless of position with stance, eyes, and the first step. Let's make sure this week that everyone knows what that means as it relates to their position on every play. Let's focus on fundamentals during our individual time in practice and validate them when we watch the practice tape. This includes a continuous emphasis on ball security at every position.
Most importantly: For all wide receivers, running backs, tight ends, let's work on pass catching technique. The Packers have had 10 dropped passes in the last four games, which is far too many. Everyone should get on the jugs machine and get more pass catching work.
2. Mental Mistakes Must Stop
Mental mistakes have been a theme with Matt LaFleur and Rodgers and are legitimate reasons for their failures on the field. Oftentimes communication is part of that issue. Let's make sure this gets cleaned up.
Last week in the red zone, Sammy Watkins ran a slant while it appears Rodgers thought he was running a fade to the back of the end zone (above). This is either a mental mistake or simple lack of communication.
This is a movement to the right by Rodgers (above). There is a flat player, but the play is missing a crosser. Watkins, who is at the top of the screen should be coming across the field from the back side. Instead, he's running an out route away from the boot (at the top of the screen). Again, this is either a mental mistake or a lack of communication.
3. Keep Offense Simple, Minimize Pre-Snap Movement
Over the years, when offensive production was not up to our standards, I would often hear quarterbacks say things such as:
>> "Let's spread them out!" This allows the QB to easily get pre-snap coverage indicators, reads, room to buy time, and running lanes.
>> "Let's minimize pre-snap shift and motion!" This allows 1) the offensive line and QB to assess the front and lock in protection, 2) receivers, running backs and tight ends to quickly get their assignment, alignment, and adjustment (AAA) with less thinking and play faster, and 3) for use of formations that are coverage indicators, such as empty sets and 0-3 patterns.
These simple changes will lead to fewer mistakes.
Lining up in an empty set (above), Rodgers can clearly and quickly identify the man coverage behind the defensive front. Quickly lining up in basic formations allows receivers to see their defenders and have a plan to attack them at full speed. It also neutralizes the number of fronts, blitzes, and opens up running lanes to allow Rodgers to extend the play, buy time, or run it!
This formation (above) with the tight end to the right and three receivers to the left once again allows the quarterback to get a pre-snap read on the coverage, which in this case is man-to-man. With the two corners and nickel back lined up in press coverage at the top of the screen and the strong safety below over the tight end, Rodgers once again can quickly assess the coverage.
This explosive play (above) is a result of Rodgers quickly identifying the coverage and the best available man covered receiver. Rodgers continues to do what few can do by falling backwards and dropping another dime with a flick of the wrist.
4. Keep Middle of Pocket Firm
A firm pocket will allow Aaron to step up and finish his throw, which he has struggled to do lately. Although Aaron is as good as there is making precision throws while falling back, he is having to do so far too often. Every QB needs a firm pocket to step into the throw.
Green Bay's offensive linemen must stop leaving the middle of the pocket to try to get "kill shots" on defensive ends! The middle of the pocket must stay firm
In the picture above, you see the original alignment of the Lions in what the NFL calls an over defense. The nose tackle is shaded between the center and left guard.
In this picture above (taken just after the snap), you see that the left guard has left the center and the nose tackle to help the offensive tackle. As a result, the center lost leverage on the nose tackle and flushed Rodgers out of the pocket. This throw was late as Rodgers had to reset and the ball was intercepted at the goal line.
The left guard should stay firm with the center to protect the pocket from inside out!
This play above is the start of a play action pass with the intention of throwing the ball down field. Instead of staying inside and helping the center, the left guard fans out to help the offensive tackle on the defensive end.
As a result of the left guard fanning out and the center being left to block the nose tackle on his own (above), Rodgers is again flushed from the pocket. This cannot happen.
One easy fix that the Packers can make to improve protection is do away with the trap passes (above). Over the last few weeks, they have not been effective and have allowed unblocked defenders to pressure Rodgers.
5. Give Rodgers More 'Candy Store' Completions
Quarterbacks like plays such as the one above. This play cuts the field in half based on the secondary alignment. If it is a two-deep look as it is here, the quarterback will go to the bubble screen at the top. If it is a three-deep look at the snap, the QB will work the drag or slant to the bottom.
This is also what I call a "breather" play for the offensive line because it is a quick throw.
The offensive line can quickly set and stay firm while the ball comes out quickly.
On this specific play, Aaron Jones is essentially replacing what Davante Adams did for the Packers often last year.
6. Eliminate Quick Throws Over Middle
Two quick game throws at short depths over the middle have resulted in tipped passes that have been intercepted in the past few weeks.
This RPO last week was the second time this year that a tipped ball resulted in an interception on a short throw over the middle. Quick passes over the middle come with a cost-benefit analysis by the play caller, particularly in the red zone. In tight spaces like the red zone, short throws over the middle are more difficult because they must be thrown through lanes due to the ball's necessary trajectory.
7. Run Plays Rodgers Loves in Practice, Games
Minimize confusion by making sure that everyone knows what to do. Most quarterbacks love two-minute type plays where they can play at a fast pace and see the defense. Green Bay needs to have that conversation. It's time to only run plays that have had multiple reps during practice and over the course of the season.
On this fourth-and-1 goal line pass last week against the Lions (above), the question is not that it was not a good play or call. The question is, how many reps have you practiced this play over the past few weeks at full speed for timing purposes?
While this play resulted in an open receiver who could have caught a touchdown, it was not blocked well, which resulted in Rodgers being hurried and uncharacteristically short-arming a pass that was ultimately intercepted.
8. Improve Rodgers' Reads and Drops
As Rodgers has already stated, he can do better.
On this play a few weeks back against the Buccaneers (above), Rodgers misread Todd Bowles' "4-cheat" coverage by not seeing the free safety on the back of the formation, who was freed up to see crossers coming from the three-receiver side. Rodgers is as good as anyone reading coverage. This pick was surprising.
9. Rodgers needs to keep using his legs.
Over the past few weeks, Rodgers has relied on his legs more to extend drives and create first downs.
In this play above, Rodgers converts a third-and-17 by stepping up in the pocket, finding an open rushing lane, and outrunning multiple defenders to move the chains.
Rodgers also used his legs to buy time in the pocket, direct traffic and give his receivers extra time to break open, which they have needed.
10. Assure Open QB-HC Communication
Over the next eight days, the Packers season is likely to be defined. Knowing Aaron Rodgers, he will look at this as an opportunity and competitive challenge to pull his team together.
With two games in the next eight days, the Packers will have to carry over much of their game plan against Dallas on the following Thursday vs. Tennessee.
I am sure that Coach LaFleur and Aaron will take the time to openly communicate and assess the situation, and the importance of continuity football against two opponents who play different styes of football.
The Packers have the quarterback to change the narrative. It's a great challenge, It will not be easy, it never is, but it is doable.
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