Analysis
7/24/23
6 min read
Rookie Running Backs Are Unique Fantasy Football Cheat Code
“You can’t draft a rookie in fantasy when they haven’t even played a single NFL snap yet.” — Terrible fantasy football managers
This article walks through the recent (and highly impressive) history of rookie running back fantasy production before discussing the 2023 fantasy outlook for nine incoming rookie runners.
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History of Rookie RBs in Fantasy
This analysis covers the past decade of rookie fantasy production (2013-2022). In order to be eligible for this study, running backs needed to play in at least 12 games. All fantasy point scoring represented is measured by PPR fantasy points per game.
Season-Long Finishes
The table below showcases how many rookie running backs finished as top-12 (fantasy RB1), top-24 (fantasy RB2), and top-36 (fantasy RB3) options for each of the past 10 seasons.
To help with interpretation, here is an example. In 2013, two rookies finished as fantasy RB1s [Le’Veon Bell (RB8), Eddie Lacy (RB10)], two rookies finished as fantasy RB2s [Giovani Bernard (RB14) and Zac Stacy (RB18)] and two rookies finished as fantasy RB3s [Andre Ellington (RB26) and Cordarrelle Patterson (RB30)].
| Season | Top-12 | Top-24 | Top-36 |
| 2013 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2014 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2015 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 2016 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2017 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 2020 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 2021 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2022 | 0* | 2 | 2 |
| Averages | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
*Breece Hall was the RB8 overall (16.4 PPR/game) through seven games before getting injured. He likely would have finished as a top-12 option were he to have met the 12-game threshold.
The average season produces 1.5 rookies finishing in the top 12 (fantasy RB1 types), 1.8 rookies finishing in the top 24 (fantasy RB2 types) and 2.0 rookies finishing in the top 36 (fantasy RB3 types). Put another way, 12.5 percent of all top-12 fantasy finishes, 15 percent of all top-24 fantasy finishes and 16.7 percent of all top-36 fantasy finishes during the past decade were rookies.
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Second Half, Fantasy Playoff Stars
Not all fantasy points are created equal. Fantasy points in the playoffs (Weeks 15-17) are more impactful because all the money in fantasy leagues is won in the final few weeks. Yet, it's often difficult to get running back fantasy production late in the season once injuries have ravaged the position.
Rookie runners, however, have backloaded fantasy production similar to wide receivers. This presents a unique point of leverage against your league mates.
If we split the past 10 seasons into first-half (through Week 8) and second-half production, we'll see rookie running backs provide many more spike weeks (games with at least 15 PPR points) in second-half games.
| Rookie RBs | First Half | Second Half |
| Games with 15+ PPR Points | 147 | 212 |
If we split the season into quarters, we once again see rookie backs get steadily better. They most often hit 15 fantasy points in the final part of the season.
| Rookie RBs | Weeks 1-4 | Weeks 5-8 | Weeks 9-12 | Weeks 13-17* |
| Games with 15+ PPR Points | 62 | 85 | 90 | 122 |
*Only the 2021 and 2022 seasons included Week 17. 2013-2020 stopped at Week 16 since that was previously when fantasy football championships were played. The NFL moved to a 17-game (18-week) season in 2021.
If we break this down further and look week-by-week, we'll see rookie running backs are hitting 15 fantasy points more often as the season moves along.
| Week | 15+ PPR Fantasy Point Games |
| 1 | 12 |
| 2 | 10 |
| 3 | 16 |
| 4 | 24 |
| 5 | 21 |
| 6 | 20 |
| 7 | 21 |
| 8 | 23 |
| 9 | 21 |
| 10 | 21 |
| 11 | 23 |
| 12 | 25 |
| 13 | 33 |
| 14 | 25 |
| 15 | 28 |
| 16 | 29 |
| 17 | 28 |
Check out our top-25 fantasy tight end rankings. Full write-ups for every player, along with tiers, add important context.
2023 Rookie Running Backs
Below are the nine rookie running backs most easily poised for a top-36 or better fantasy football finish, and they’re listed below in their general ADP order. For added context, their 2023 NFL Draft pick number is included with each name.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons - Pick 8
Bijan Robinson should be a first-round redraft pick in 2023. Taken No. 8 overall by the Atlanta Falcons, Robinson is set up to receive high touch volume. He likely joins Ezekiel Elliott (RB3, 2016), Alvin Kamara (RB3, 2017) and Saquon Barkley (RB2, 2018) as rookie running backs who were elite fantasy assets in Year 1.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions - Pick 12
Jahmyr Gibbs is a pass-catching specialist who is also a home run hitter with the ball in his hands. Think of him like rookie year Christian McCaffrey, who parlayed 117 rush attempts and 113 targets into the RB10 fantasy finish for PPR leagues.
Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks - Pick 52
Zach Charbonnet is a big back with a strong pass-catching background. While he’s most likely behind Kenneth Walker to start the season, expect Charbonnet to siphon some goal-line touches and the majority of the receptions from Walker. He likely finishes as a top-36 option and could elevate to the top-12 should anything happen to Walker early in the 2023 season.
Devon Achane, Dolphins - Pick 84
A college sprinter, Devon Achane was taken in Round 3 of the 2023 draft by the Miami Dolphins. He is a strong pass-catcher who should be a slightly higher volume Nyheim Hines in the NFL. Hines had more than 60 receptions in his first year. Expect Achane to hover around the top-36 range throughout the season. His 190-pound frame is unlikely to support any type of workhorse role on the ground.
Kendre Miller, Saints - Pick 71
Kendre Miller was drafted by a Saints team with one of the NFL's more unique running back rooms. Kamara could be suspended, and journeyman veteran Jamaal Williams is unlikely to repeat as the NFL’s rushing touchdown leader. Miller is an explosive runner who will be playing behind an elite Saints offensive line. If Kamara misses significant time, Miller is a threat to sneak into the top 36 fantasy running backs.
Tank Bigsby, Jaguars - Pick 88
Tank Bigsby probably takes on a change-of-pace role behind Travis Etienne. He’s well-rounded and should be a top-24 fantasy option if anything happens to Etienne.
Roschon Johnson, Bears - Pick 115
The Bears picked Roschon Johnson in the fourth round and he immediately became their best pass-catching back, as Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman offer little in that area. While Round 4 isn’t a significant investment, Herbert went in Round 6, and Foreman is on a one-year $2 million deal. There’s a small chance Johnson looks like this year’s Dameon Pierce and takes over the backfield early.
Tyjae Spears, Titans - Pick 81
The Titans drafted Tyjae Spears in Round 3. Should the 29-year-old Derrick Henry suffer an injury, he’d be in line for a heavy workload. Spears is fast, well-rounded and should flirt with top-24 fantasy production if Henry goes down.
Chase Brown, Bengals - Pick 163
The Bengals have little running back depth behind Joe Mixon. Samaje Perine was a fantasy RB1 anytime Mixon was hurt last year. Chase Brown could produce similarly, though it’s unclear if he’s the direct backup. Brown had 328 carries and 27 receptions for 1,883 total yards for Illinois last season.
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