Analysis
8/24/23
4 min read
Predicting NFL’s Potential 2023 Salary Cap Casualties
As the NFL preseason wraps up this week and the start of the regular season draws close, teams must confront their roster limit.
Several factors contribute to that overall decision-making process, and more often than not, it is based purely on the team’s evaluation of the player’s skill and contribution to the team. Other times, it is a matter of depth, age, and salary savings.
Rosters boil down to a cost-benefit analysis. Players cut at this time of the year are not always undrafted rookies or players bouncing between rosters and practice squads.
As we saw last year, Alex Leatherwood, the 16th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, was cut by the Las Vegas Raiders before the season started. The Buffalo Bills cut former first-round tight end O.J. Howard, who absorbed more than $3 million in dead money. The Miami Dolphins cut former Super Bowl champion Sony Michel in the days leading up to the 2022 regular season.
These moves often have ramifications; those players likely will not remain free agents for long. Leatherwood did not make it through waivers before the Chicago Bears picked him up. The Houston Texans signed Howard, and he scored two touchdowns in the season opener. Michel joined the Los Angeles Chargers to back up Austin Ekeler.
Here are a few other veterans who are cut candidates this preseason.
Three Potential Cap Casualties
La’el Collins, OT, Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals overhauled their offensive line after struggling to avert pressure in the 2021 season and Super Bowl LVI. After La'el Collins signed a three-year, $21 million contract in the 2022 offseason, he largely underwhelmed in his first season as the Bengals’ “right tackle of the future.”
Collins could be a cut candidate this preseason because of his lofty contract and poor performance last season, where he allowed six sacks and a 6.2 percent pressure rate, both of which were bottom 12 among tackles with at least 600 pass-blocking snaps.
Nonetheless, Collins carries the ninth-largest cap hit among right tackles for the 2023 season. With Orlando Brown Jr. debuting for the Bengals at left tackle and Jonah Williams assuming Collins’ responsibility on the right side, Collins suddenly finds himself on the sidelines.
Collins is 30 and has not performed up to par. A salary of $9.384 million for a backup right tackle is a hefty insurance policy, and the Bengals can save more than $6 million against the cap in 2023 by cutting him. While depth is never a bad idea, it is a luxury the Bengals may be unable to afford with contract extensions for WR Tee Higgins, QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase looming.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders awarded their do-it-all skill player Curtis Samuel with a three-year, $34.5 million contract before the 2021 season. In two seasons with the Commanders, Samuel amassed just 74 receptions for 723 yards and four touchdowns and 198 rushing yards on 42 carries for one touchdown.
Samuel carries $7.2 million in dead money for the remainder of his contract; however, $4.8 million comes in two void years after the deal's expiration after this season. The Commanders can save $5.8 million against the 2023 salary cap by cutting Samuel.
With Terry McLaurin’s stability on the outside and the emergence of Jahan Dotson, Samuel is expendable. And with a cap hit of $13 million, he might not be worth his weight; that is quite the price to pay for a player who has failed to eclipse 1,000 scrimmage yards in two years, albeit hampered by injuries.
Although just 27, Samuel is entering the final year of his contract with the Commanders, which might be a logical stepping-off point for both sides.
Jamal Agnew, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars can save $4,714,706 against the salary cap this season if they cut WR Jamal Agnew. Agnew is not the fifth or possibly even sixth option in the Jaguars' receiving game behind WR Calvin Ridley, WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram, RB Travis Etienne and WR Zay Jones. Agnew is relegated to a returner-only role on this team.
Even as a rusher, he is behind 2023 draft pick Tank Bigsby. Agnew also has dipped a bit as a returner. He has yet to come close to his league-leading rookie yardage total of 447 and two touchdowns on punt returns; 205 yards in 2022 was his next closest.
Compounding matters, Agnew has missed 11 games in the past three seasons. Penn State product Parker Washington has fielded every return for the Jaguars in the preseason after serving as the Nittany Lions’ primary returner this past season. The more than $4.7 million in cap savings could be more valuable than the performance above replacement.
