In his first year as the Green Bay Packers' starting QB Jordan Love started inconsistently, leading his team to a 3-6 record. Since then, it’s been a dramatic turnaround with five wins in the last seven games and a red-hot Love is leading the way. He has 16 TD passes and only one interception during that stretch.

Heading into Sunday’s regular-season finale at Lambeau Field against the Chicago Bears, the Packers can claim a wild-card spot with a victory. They would enter the playoffs as a team on the rise.

Better Luck Next Year

Back in mid-November, the prevailing opinion among media and Packers Nation was the NFL’s youngest team, and its quarterback was destined for a losing season. It was expected to be a transition year after trading Aaron Rodgers, who spent 15 seasons as the Packers' starter.

Green Bay lost soundly by two touchdowns in Week 4 and Week 8 against two division rivals — the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings. Veteran QBs Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins outplayed Love in both games.

“It’s part of the learning process and better luck next year” was what Love heard from outsiders. But coach Matt LaFleur delivered a different message: Keep working hard.

That message extended to Love’s supporting cast, which included two fine running backs — Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, a receiving corps of all first- and second-year players and an offensive line in flux.

“It’s taken a lot of hard work,” LaFleur said in a press conference. “We’ve evolved as an offense. There’s a learning curve any time you’ve got a bunch of new players. I’m super happy for Jordan because he’s put in a ton of work to get to this point.” 

Slaying Lions Became Turning Point

The biggest turning point came on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. Love threw three TD passes with no turnovers, and the Packers defense forced three Goff fumbles in a 29-22 upset.

That confidence-building victory was followed by a huge 27-19 Sunday night home win against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. In that game, Love again threw three TD passes with no turnovers. 

The talk after the game centered on a controversial non-call on an obvious pass interference (against ex-Packer Marquez Valdes-Scantling). More pertinent from the Packers’ standpoint was Love had outperformed Patrick Mahomes in prime time. Love had led the team back into the playoff race at 6-6 with its third straight win.

Tough losses to the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers followed. Again, the Packers were written off at 6-8. But the team survived a scare with a three-point win in Carolina. 

That led to a virtual elimination game in Minnesota on New Year’s Eve, Love and the Packers played their most complete game of the season, dominating the Vikings 33-10 in a game they led 30-3 in the third quarter.

Love is the NFC Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 256 yards and three TDs with no interceptions. He added a two-yard rushing TD, which showed his athleticism and toughness by outrunning the Vikings' defenders before crashing into the end zone.

Jordan Love's Tale of Two Seasons

Performances vs. Vikings Illustrate Love's Growth

Love looked more poised and confident in Sunday’s rematch with the Vikings compared to the October meeting. In October, he was unsure of where Vikings defense coordinator Brian Flores was sending the pressure from. Love took four sacks, threw one interception and Green Bay scored just 10 points in that loss.

Love talked postgame about the difference from the previous Vikings matchup. 

“I’ve grown in a lot of ways,” he said. “Trying to find ways to get better and understanding how I need to attack these guys after the first game. Drawing on little mistakes and trusting everyone around me.”

LaFleur was heavy in his postgame praise of his quarterback.

 “I can’t say enough great things about Jordan Love,” he said. “Just his ability to hang in there vs. tough looks, drift away from pressure, allowing his guys to go make plays. 

“I think he’s playing at an incredibly high level. The sky’s the limit. He’s shown a glimpse of what he can ultimately be. He’s been more consistent as the season has progressed and with a young group around him who have performed at a higher level.”

During this late-season run, Love is the hottest quarterback in the league. He has a passer rating higher than 108 in six of the past seven games.

It’s a stunning turnaround for the 2020 first-round pick after a stretch of seven games (from Sept. 24-Nov. 12) in which Love threw 10 interceptions as the Packers lost five of seven.

Love ranks third in TD passes (30) and 10th in passer rating (93.8) among quarterbacks with at least nine starts. He’s getting the ball out quicker, and his offensive line has improved as it’s overcome the loss of Pro Bowl tackle David Bakhtiari.

Love has taken only 29 sacks (third-fewest), including taking zero against the Vikings defense that had four in the Week 8 meeting.

'I think he's playing at an incredible level. The sky's the limit. He's shown a glimpse of what he can ultimately be.'

Packers coach Matt LaFleur

Supporting Cast Improves With Love

Love has been missing his expected No. 1 receiver, Christian Watson (hamstring), for the past four weeks. But rookie second-rounder Jayden Reed came on with 12 catches for 141 yards and three TDs in his last two games. Reed leads the team with 60 catches, 681 yards and 10 total TDs.

Jones has had two consecutive excellent games. He had 127 rushing yards at Carolina and 120 yards against Minnesota. The running game’s effectiveness has set up play-action passing for Love.

An amazing 98 percent of the Packers’ receiving production at wide receiver and tight end has come from first- or second-year players. That is the most in NFL history.

It’s also a tribute to good drafting and free agent pickups by GM Brian Gutekunst. It's also excellent development by the coaching staff, who certainly deserve a lot of credit for Love’s improvement. 

Gutekunst also made the wise decision to trade Rodgers to the Jets last April with Love entering his fourth season. It's the same move Gutekunst’s predecessor, Ted Thompson, did in 2008 when he traded Favre to the Jets, opening the door for Rodgers.  

As the offense emerged, the Green Bay defense came off one of its best games with 211 yards allowed, four sacks and two takeaways against the Vikings. The quarterback edge for the Packers was obvious.

Love played great, and the Cousins-less Vikings struggled with rookie Jaren Hall playing poorly in the first half, and Nick Mullens was unimpressive in the second half.

Opportunity to Change the Narrative

The Packers beat the Bears in Chicago 38-20 on opening day. Love knows the Packers blew a similar Week 18 opportunity to make the playoffs last season when they lost at home to Detroit. 

If they sweep a hot Bears team, which has four wins in its last five games, the Packers will enter the playoffs as dangerous road underdogs. That puts the pressure clearly on their wild-card round opponent (the Cowboys, Eagles, or Lions). It’s a great place to be for a team considered by most to be at least a year away from playoff contention.

That was back when the Packers quarterback’s development, along with that of his supporting cast, was a work in progress.

“It hasn’t been easy,” Love said. “There’s been a lot of highs and lows and adversity. We had a lot of young guys but you could see how many playmakers we had and how deep our skill positions were. Everybody continued to work hard and find ways to get better. We’re controlling our destiny now so I’m excited to go handle business this week.”

Playoff Berth Would Exceed Favre, Rodgers Debuts

Love waited until his fourth year to succeed Rodgers, who also sat for three years behind Favre. In his first season as the starter, Rodgers went 6-10 before. He took off in Year 2 when he led the Packers to the playoffs. Then, he won the Super Bowl in his third year.

Favre started in his second season, made the playoffs in Year 3 and won the Super Bowl in his fifth season as Packers starter.

With a win Sunday, Love will have accomplished what his predecessors couldn't in their first season as the Packers starting quarterback — lead the team to the playoffs.

The Packers and their passionate fan base hope this is the start of another 15-plus year run for a championship and future Hall of Fame quarterback in Titletown.

Jay Gruden explains what rookie QB C.J. Stroud has done this season for his Houston Texans to have a league-low 14 offensive turnovers.

Dave Wannstedt explains how Will Anderson and the Houston Texans defense have evolved this season under DeMeco Ryans, creating a unit that mirrors the Jets and 49ers' elite squads.

Dave Wannstedt and Jay Gruden see a lot of similarities between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts but explain why they like Houston to take the "win-and-in" matchup Saturday night in Indianapolis.

Saturday night's game between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts will crown the AFC South champion if the Jaguars lose Sunday. At the very least, the winner can earn a Wild Card berth. Dave Wannstedt and Jay Gruden break down how these teams with rookie coaches reached this point.

Below, you’ll find 2023 Week 18 fantasy rankings for points per reception (PPR) and half-PPR leagues. There are 32 ranked quarterbacks, 42 running backs, 49 wide receivers and 18 tight ends.

On Thursday, Matthew Hill and Kev Wheeler’s rankings will be added, and positional rankings will then be ordered by averaging the three rankings.

There also are the top-12 defense rankings from Ryan Reynolds.

For each player, you can view their ranking, matchup and implied team total according to Las Vegas sportsbooks. You also can view the adjusted fantasy points of each player’s upcoming matchup. For example, WR Justin Jefferson faces a Detroit Lions defense ranking fifth in fantasy points allowed. When adjusting for schedule, wide receiver rooms average 5.1 more fantasy points against the Lions than they do in their typical matchup.

Meanwhile, xPPR (expected PPR points) looks strictly at usage rather than a player’s ability. Think of this as each player’s average expected fantasy points per game based on the touches they get.

The Proj. column in the table (projected fantasy points, added mid-week) is courtesy of our data scientist, Ahaan Rungta. His projections won’t fully align with my fantasy rankings, but it’s another good piece of the puzzle to consider.Join our FREE Discord for help with start-sits, trades, and general fantasy advice each week. We’ll also drop player prop bets and DFS strategy throughout the season.

WEEK 18 FANTASY RANKINGS

TOP 32 QUARTERBACKS

Top 42 Running Backs

Top 48 Wide Receivers

Top 18 Tight Ends

Top 12 Fantasy Defenses

This guide will help you understand which NFL teams are motivated in Week 18 and how to navigate the prop betting markets or Week 18 fantasy championships. Playoff implications, which teams are resting starters and other matchup notes are included throughout.

Saturday Games

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Steelers -3.5

Game Total: 36.5

Pittsburgh Steelers — 29 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Pittsburgh Steelers should be highly motivated against the Ravens because they’ll need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Against a Baltimore team that’s already clinched the No. 1 seed (and a first-round bye), all Steelers players should be considered for overs or pass on them.

Baltimore Ravens — Clinched AFC's No. 1 Seed

The Baltimore Ravens may play their starters for a couple of drives so they don’t go two weeks without NFL game action, but it will likely be the Steelers starters vs. the Ravens backups by halftime.

Baltimore's starters are unlikely to play in the second half, so betting unders should be considered when lines come out.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Texans -1

Game Total: 47.5

Houston Texans — 46 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Houston Texans will clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Indianapolis Colts. Houston wins the AFC South if the Jaguars lose on Sunday. While the Colts have faced an easier slate of quarterbacks, they still have allowed the 11th-most yards per pass attempt (7.2). That positions C.J. Stroud to have a big game through the air. His 213 passing yards in his Week 17 return from a concussion were largely due to the Titans’ anemic offense.

Indianapolis is also a plus matchup for the Houston run game because running backs average 106 rushing yards per game against the Colts (fifth-highest). In the receiving game, running backs average 44 yards per game against the Colts, the fourth-most in the NFL. 

Devin Singletary overs can be considered, as 74 total yards in Week 18 would trigger a $125,000 bonus for him.

Indianapolis Colts — 54 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Colts make the playoffs with a home win and, like Houston, win the AFC South if the Jaguars lose. The Texans allow the seventh-most passing yards per game (260) yet the fourth-fewest (68) rushing yards per game to running backs. Gardner Minshew overs and Jonathan Taylor unders can be considered here. The Texans are also a slightly plus matchup for wide receivers.

Sunday Early Window Games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Jaguars -5.5

Game Total: 39.5

Jacksonville Jaguars — 77 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Jacksonville Jaguars will secure the AFC South, and the No. 4 seed, with a win against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans lost several key defensive starters in the past two months and are a very beatable team through the air.

Should Trevor Lawrence return this week, he, Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones are in great spots for fantasy and prop betting. Despite tight end Evan Engram’s recent hot streak, when adjusting for schedule, the Titans are one of the three toughest teams for tight end receiving yardage. His overs are probably not a savvy play this week. 

Tennessee Titans — Eliminated From Playoff Contention

The Jaguars pass defense has been a liability for much of the season, and DeAndre Hopkins gets an additional $250,000 if he records seven receptions. Look for long odds on a seven-reception milestone in the betting markets.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Buccaneers -5.5

Game Total: 37.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 69 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win the AFC South and lock down the No. 4 seed with a win, so they’ll be highly motivated against a Carolina Panthers team that’s clinched the worst record in football.

Running backs had huge days on the ground against Carolina, so Rachaad White is a strong start in fantasy, and his overs should be looked at in betting markets. 6-foot-5 Mike Evans could have a massive day anytime he’s running routes against 5-foot-10 CB Donte Jackson, even though the Panthers have generally been stingy against receivers. Be careful if you’re blindly taking Evans’ unders in this contest.

Carolina Panthers - Clinched No. 1 Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

The Panthers failed to score against the Jaguars last week, and Bryce Young threw for just 112 yards, while Chuba Hubbard only ran for 45 himself. Against the stout Buccaneers’ defensive line, Hubbard's rushing unders are firmly in play.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -3

Game Total: 45

Minnesota Vikings — 3 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Minnesota Vikings need a win, along with some help from several other teams, to reach the playoffs. Nick Mullens likely draws the start at quarterback, and all pass game/receiving overs can be considered because the Detroit Lions are one of the five best secondaries to target for passing yardage. Conversely, the Vikings' struggling run game should be left alone or faded in betting markets against a stout Lions front.

Detroit Lions — Locked Up No. 2 or No. 3 Seed in the NFC

The Lions are the current No. 3 seed. A win against Minnesota and a Cowboys loss in the late afternoon slate will propel them to the No. 2 seed. Lions Coach Dan Campbell emphasizes culture and playing hard-nosed football and has stated he intends to play the Lions starters this week.

No team has allowed more receptions to wide receivers (14.8 per game) than the Vikings. Against their blitz-heavy scheme, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s short-area skill set should be on display, and his receptions overs should be carefully considered.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -3

Game Total: 42

Atlanta Falcons — 10 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

If the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints and the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers, then the Falcons reach the playoffs. Arthur Smith’s offense has been one of the hardest to predict each week with player usage, but the starters should be in for the entire game. Due to injuries to Christian McCaffrey (calf) and Alvin Kamara (ankle), Bijan Robinson finds himself as an elite fantasy start for those who have Week 18 championships on the line.

New Orleans Saints — 31 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Saints need to beat the Falcons, and the Buccaneers need to lose or tie against Carolina for New Orleans to make the playoffs. This team should be motivated, and assuming Kamara sits, it will need to be heavily reliant on the passing game.

The Falcons have been consistently beaten by tight ends, which pairs nicely with Juwan Johnson’s recent surge — his receiving yards overs should be given a close look later this week. Chris Olave struggled last week but should handle immense volume for fantasy managers if Kamara misses this game.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -2

Game Total: 30.5

New York Jets — Eliminated From Playoff Contention

The New England Patriots have consistently participated in sluggish offensive contests this year, so New York Jets' players should be unders or pass in the betting markets.

New England Patriots — Eliminated From Playoff Contention

The Patriots have the No. 3 pick in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft, but Bill Belichick’s coaching future is also at stake. They’re a tough team to pin down, but at the very least, we should see another heavy usage day for Ezekiel Elliott. The Jets secondary is the NFL’s best, so receiving unders are always on the table.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -6

Game Total: 38.5

Cleveland Browns — Clinched No. 5 Seed

The Cleveland Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed and have no reason to play starters. Be careful betting any overs or starting any of their skill players in fantasy football.

Cincinnati Bengals — Eliminated From Playoff Contention

The Cincinnati Bengals are out of playoff contention and could rest their starters in Week 18. Be careful betting any overs or starting any of their skill players in fantasy football.

Sunday Late Window Games

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

Spread: Cowboys -13

Game Total: 46

Dallas Cowboys — Clinched Playoff Berth

With a win, the Dallas Cowboys secure the No. 2 seed. If they lose and the Eagles win, they fall to the No. 5 seed. The Cowboys should steamroll the Washington Commanders' secondary, and all their passing game overs should be in play here.

Washington Commanders — Eliminated From Playoff Contention

They currently have the No. 2 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, and with Sam Howell’s recent struggles, they may prioritize picking a quarterback such as Drake Maye at No. 2 over putting up a fight against their division rival Dallas Cowboys. If the Commanders play their starters, Howell passing unders and interception props are in play. For fantasy football, RB Brian Robinson has the best matchup in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Spread: Eagles -5.5

Game Total: 42

Philadelphia Eagles — Clinched Playoff Berth

The Philadelphia Eagles can get as high as the No. 2 seed if they win and the Cowboys lose. Otherwise, they’ll be the No. 5 seed and face whichever team wins the NFC South (Buccaneers, Saints or Falcons) on the road.

An issue with motivation arises because the Cowboys play simultaneously and could smoke the Commanders. Coach Nick Sirianni has publicly acknowledged the Cowboys game will factor into his decisions in this one, and he could pull starters early if Dallas jumps out to a multi-touchdown lead at halftime. Be wary of Eagles players in fantasy and prop betting markets.

New York Giants — Eliminated From Playoff Contention

Out of the playoffs and currently holding the No. 5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the New York Giants played the Eagles hard two weeks ago, losing by one score. Philadelphia is exploitable through the air. Assuming Tyrod Taylor is under center, this New York pass attack is intriguing, especially if the Eagles turn to second-stringers for the final quarter or two.

Saquon Barkley is not under contract next season, and it’s unclear if he will remain in New York. Unfortunately for him, the Eagles rank as one of the toughest matchups for opposing backs.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -3

Game Total: 44

Chicago Bears — Eliminated From Playoff Contention

While the Chicago Bears were eliminated from the playoffs a couple of weeks ago, Justin Fields is playing for the rest of his career. He faces a Packers pass defense that’s been inconsistent. WR DJ Moore has publicly vouched for the signal caller, and it would not be wise to blindly bet any Bears unders.

Khalil Herbert has at least 18 carries for 112 rushing yards in back-to-back games and faces a Packers team that struggles to stop the run. His overs, especially long shots like reaching 75 or 100 rushing yards, are firmly in play in this matchup.

Green Bay Packers — 60 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Green Bay Packers will make the playoffs with a win against the Bears. Despite the high level of motivation for the Packers, the Bears have played strong defense the past two months. Be wary of getting too excited about Packers’ overs with their depleted receiving core — Jayden Reed left Week 17 early, and Christian Watson hasn’t played in nearly a month.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -2.5

Game Total: 38

Denver Broncos — Eliminated From Playoff Contention

Expect another Jarrett Stidham start against a tough divisional foe. The Las Vegas Raiders defense has played at a top-10 level since Antonio Pierce took over, and Denver Broncos players should be viewed as unders or passes in the prop markets.

Las Vegas Raiders — Eliminated From Playoff Contention

The players want Pierce to be their coach next year, and they’ve played hard in the second half of the season. Josh Jacobs should return from injury and is not under contract in 2024. He could have a 100-yard day against a Broncos defense allowing 5.3 yards per carry to running backs, by far the highest mark in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Seahawks -2.5

Game Total: 48

Seattle Seahawks — 26 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Seattle Seahawks sneak into the playoffs with a win and a Packers loss. Geno Smith also gets an additional $2 million if he can lead the team to the playoffs. Given how well the Bears' defense has played, it’s tough to imagine the Packers blowing out Chicago.

The Seahawks are all strong starts in fantasy this week against a lackluster Arizona Cardinals defense. The Cardinals allow top-five marks in yards per pass attempt and yards per carry, so Seattle skill players could be in for some big performances.

Arizona Cardinals - Eliminated From Playoff Contention

The Cardinals currently own the fourth pick in the upcoming draft, and Kyler Murray is playing for his future, in Arizona or elsewhere. The Seahawks have struggled against running backs and slot wide receivers this season, so James Conner, Rondale Moore, and — to a lesser extent — Greg Dortch are in plus matchups. Seattle is also the only team to allow more than 400 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, so Murray should use his legs heavily.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -3.5

Game Total: 42

Los Angeles Rams — Locked Up No. 6 or No. 7 Seed in the NFC

The Los Angeles Rams announced Carson Wentz will start at quarterback, signaling they’re OK with facing Detroit or Dallas in the Wild Card round. A win against the San Francisco 49ers gives them the No. 6 seed, and a loss with a Packers win would cause them to fall to the No. 7 seed. No Rams are safe plays for Week 18 fantasy championships with this news.

San Francisco 49ers — Clinched NFC’s No. 1 Seed

The 49ers will probably play their starters for a few drives because they likely don’t want their key players taking two full weeks off from football. This makes it challenging to evaluate and project all their players. The one player we already know about is Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers ruled him out due to a calf injury.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3

Game Total: 35.5

Kansas City Chiefs - Clinched AFC’s No. 3 Seed

The Kansas City Chiefs, who have no upward or downward mobility in the standings, will likely rest starters.

Los Angeles Chargers - Eliminated From Playoff Contention

Like prior weeks, the Los Angeles Chargers have minimal motivation. This week, Austin Ekeler’s playing time is a risky proposition, and we should not expect Keenan Allen back.

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Bills -3

Game Total: 50

Buffalo Bills — 94 Percent  Chance to Reach Playoffs

The Buffalo Bills will secure the No. 2 seed with a win. If the Steelers and Jaguars win earlier in the weekend and the Texans-Colts game doesn’t end in a tie, then the Bills will miss the playoffs with a loss.

This matchup against an injured Miami Dolphins team has significant playoff-seeding implications on the line, and the Dolphins just lost two key starters on defense — edge Bradley Chubb (ACL) and CB Xavien Howard (foot). All Bills offensive players are strong fantasy starts, and with a diminished Miami pass rush and secondary, the Bills’ passing game should thrive.

Miami Dolphins — Clinched Playoff Berth

The Dolphins secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win. A loss drops them to the No. 6 seed and a road game against the Chiefs.

We shouldn't expect Jaylen Waddle back until the playoffs, so this should be a hyper-consolidated and motivated offense. The Bills defense has struggled at times this season against opposing run games, and they’ll likely try to bracket Tyreek Hill all game.

As the 2023 NFL regular season comes to a close, we all can agree injuries have affected your favorite team in one way or another. 

Concussions are still one of football’s most common injuries. We wanted to compare year-to-year data on the number of concussions suffered and the different ways they occur in the game.

Season By Season Concussion Data

We’ve seen a slight uptick in the number of concussions. But with the NFL’s initiatives on player safety, teams and personnel are more aware of these head injuries and are looking out for them.

This season, there have been 387 plays resulting in fines for players. Almost all of these are unnecessary roughness fines, and many don’t get penalized during the game.

This could be why there are fewer games missed due to concussions in 2023 compared with years prior. With detection and spotting improving, we are diagnosing more concussions players would have played through. 

This results in more “mild” concussions that don’t result in time missed.

The tricky part about concussions is each player is affected differently due to a variety of factors. How the concussion occurred, the player's personal history with head injuries and different symptoms all play a role in a player returning. 

Trevor Lawrence suffered a concussion and got through the five-step return-to-play protocol and didn't miss the following week. On the other hand, Hayden Hurst suffered a concussion in Week 10 and hasn’t played since; he was recently put on injured reserve, ending his season.

We can also look at the contact type for how the concussions occurred in the past few seasons. 

Clearly, a majority of concussions happen from contact with other players. However, there has been a slight rise in concussions that occur from the ground. C.J. Stroud’s concussion that cost him two games happened when he slammed his head on the dreaded MetLife turf against the New York Jets in Week 14.

Turf vs. Grass

That raises the question of whether more concussions are due to contact with the ground are happening on turf or grass fields. It is one variable we could change to try and limit the number of concussions.

There don’t seem to be any consistent trends year to year. However, this season, more contact with ground concussions are happening on turf fields. 

Earlier this season, we broke down the numbers in this article on more head injuries happening on turf. Still, concussions directly caused by hitting your head against the ground don’t seem to be field-dependent.

Most importantly, while the number of concussions in the most recent years has stayed around the same, the efforts the NFL has made to reduce the number of games missed due to concussions have worked. 

Rule changes, equipment changes and educating players are the driving forces of making the game safer.

This articled was written by Brett Barnes.

The Fantasy Football Player’s Championship (FFPC) Playoff Challenge was one of the first forms of playoff best ball. In this format, users select no more than one player from each playoff team to fill a roster consisting of 12 positions.

Roster sizes were expanded by adding two additional FLEX spots when the NFL expanded its playoff field to seven teams from each conference. The roster requirements consist of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, four FLEX, one tight end, one kicker and one defense.

FPPC uses a tight end premium scoring structure, with each reception at the position worth 1.5 points. That’s it — simple enough, right? There is no salary and no draft; just pick players from each team while leaving two teams out.

But within those basic rules is a slew of theoretical discussions that maximize expected value.

This two-part series will explore what’s important to success in this unique contest. We’ll start by examining how to optimize rosters against the field in Part 1 before shifting to a discussion on the players in Part 2.

FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy

Positional Importance

The above table compares positional scoring in the FFPC format for this season (through Week 17). By examining the data, we find the QB1 averaged 29.6 percent more points per game (ppg) than the QB12. The RB1 averaged 61.2 percent more ppg than the RB12. The WR1 averaged 37.7 percent more ppg than the WR12. And the TE1 averaged 48.3 percent more than the TE12.

The most valuable positions for this format are quarterback and running back, which makes sense considering those are the two positions where volume is most projectable. That said, you’ll notice the WR12 averaged more PPR points per game than the RB12, meaning the drop-off at the position beyond the elites was bigger.

You’ll also notice the quarterback and wide receiver positions had flatter scoring than running back and tight end. That means the dip in production from the first-ranked player to the 12th-ranked player was less than at running back and tight end.

Importance of Playoff Structure

One of the major differences between FFPC’s playoff best ball format and other formats is the limit placed on the number of players you can select from each team (one).

This format changes how we think about the playoff bracket, how teams advance, who they play and the road to the Super Bowl. Instead of favoring team stacks and Super Bowl correlations, the FFPC format emphasizes games played, which directly correlates to more opportunities for fantasy points.

Even more important than who makes your roster is who is left off your roster.

There are 12 roster spots in this tournament, and 14 NFL teams make the postseason. We are limited to one player per team, which means two teams will remain unaccounted for on each roster in play. So it's paramount the two teams we don’t have play only one game.

That doesn’t mean we should leave out players from teams playing in Super Wild Card weekend; that introduces an interesting theoretical wrinkle to this contest. Basically, the field is likely to omit teams playing on the first weekend of the playoffs as opposed to the two one-seed teams that earned a bye week. That leads to an opportunity to generate meaningful leverage on the field.

Because scoring at kicker and defense/special teams is much lower than at the skill positions, we should aim to have players at kicker and defense play exactly one game. So we should begin the roster-building process with players from teams we project to play just one game, which includes the players from the two teams we leave off rosters.

At quarterback and running back, we should select players from teams we project to play the most games.

Because the maximum number of games a team can play in the postseason is four — and because the only way for that to happen is for one of (or two of) the teams playing in Super Wild Card weekend to make the Super Bowl — optimal theory suggests our quarterbacks and running backs should come from teams that did not earn a bye.

We’ll discuss the process of roster building in the next installment, so we’ll leave that discussion there for now.

Tight end is the lowest-scoring skill position but carries the second-largest difference in PPG between the top and the 12th-ranked producer. The position carries some of the lowest contributions to a roster, but the gap in production would have us limiting exposure to the elites.

There isn’t a “right” answer. It's just something we need to be aware of as we construct rosters. "Limiting exposure to the elites” and “trying to capture an outlier score at the position from a non-elite” have merit.

The FLEX

The expansion of the NFL playoffs led to FFPC expanding its rosters by adding two additional FLEX positions. That increased the available options and the decision points on a roster. More decision points mean more opportunities for mistakes, too.

The data tells us elite running backs score far more points per game than elite wide receivers, but things even out at the bottom tier of RB1 and WR1. There, wide receivers edge out running backs in fantasy PPG.

Without considering matchups, seeding or the playoff bracket, theoretics tell us we should prioritize running backs in the FLEX to the maximum extent possible. That said, this discussion involves considering the median, and we know fantasy football is extremely variant, meaning there is always an edge in searching for leverage.

However, leverage is one of the more misunderstood principles. A median outcome implies the end result will land below the projection and above the projection at equal rates. However, outliers will occur in either direction from the median, which is why we target variance at low ownership.

We place bets on outlier outcomes when the field isn’t and largely avoid those positions when the field is — the basic principle of leverage. We’ll dive further into this discussion in the second installment of this series.

This ties most directly into optimal FLEX utilization. Analytics tell us the optimal FLEX would be four running backs, but we must also consider field tendencies and expected FLEX positional utilization rates.

Optimally, we would select a quarterback and six running backs (two running back positions and four FLEX) that all play multiple games. But that is hard to do and involves immense variance through things like injuries, coaching tendencies, matchups, game flow and game environment. More on this in next week’s article.

The Players

We’ll dive into the actual players and more of the nuts and bolts behind constructing a roster next week. This first installment is to introduce the contest and get readers thinking about the unique format.

We only scratched the surface of the innumerable theoretical decisions at play in this format. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X) or ping me in The 33rd Team Discord channel.

Hall of Famer, NFL All-Time sack leader and Buffalo Bills legend Bruce Smith breaks down his top-five pass rushers of all time.