Greg Cosell and Andy Benoit dive into the Buffalo Bills-Miami Dolphins Week 18 matchup and explain what Buffalo needs from Josh Allen to steal the division. Plus, the guys discuss whether Kyler Murray and Justin Fields should be in their teams' long-term plans.

Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 18.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth Down Decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

WEEK 18 MATCHUPS

Steelers vs. Ravens

Fourth-down decisions: Steelers 28th, Ravens 30th

The Pittsburgh Steelers need to attack the Baltimore Ravens’ run defense if they want to sneak into the playoffs. The Ravens are strong across the board in our metrics, with the exception of their run defense.

While the Ravens have locked up the AFC's No. 1 seed, they will look to keep the Steelers out of the playoffs with their dominant, balanced offense and their ability to bring pressure as well as cover on defense.

Texans vs. Colts

Fourth-down decisions: Texans 7th, Colts 31st

The Indianapolis Colts will look to exploit the last-ranked Houston Texans’ coverage unit in this win-and-in game. Gardner Minshew has provided a spark and launched the Colts into the league's top half in Passing Total Points.

On the other side, the Texans must protect C.J. Stroud against a tough Colts pass rush. The Texans’ blocking ranking is concerning in this matchup, but the Colts struggle to stop the run or cover on the back end, so a well-balanced, quick-passing attack could succeed.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers

Fourth-down decisions: Buccaneers 27th, Panthers 11th

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quest for a division title will face a minor final test against an inept Carolina Panthers team.

The Panthers struggle across the board on offense and, with the exception of a middle-of-the-road run defense, struggle on defense. 

Bryce Young will end his rookie season against a tough Buccaneers secondary, and will likely receive little help in the run game as Tampa Bay is even tougher against the run.

Browns vs. Bengals

Fourth-down decisions: Browns 12th, Bengals 14th

The Cleveland Browns locked up the No. 5 seed. They should their top-ranked run defense to finish strong against the Cincinnati Bengals.

While pride may be the only thing on the line, the Bengals must get the ball out quickly to avoid a ferocious Browns pass rush and exploit a mediocre coverage unit.

Vikings vs. Lions

Fourth-down decisions: Vikings 18th, Lions 6th

The Minnesota Vikings’ slim playoff hopes will be tested against a Detroit Lions team that ranks in the top half of the league in every ranking.

The Lions’ balanced offense can attack and pick apart the Vikings' defense any way it sees fit, as it has an advantage on every front.

If the Detroit defense can contain Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Vikings might not have enough firepower to overwhelm the Lions’ defense.

Jets vs. Patriots

Fourth-down decisions: Jets 20th, Patriots 26th

The New England Patriots offense finds a tough final match-up against a balanced, albeit wasted, New York Jets defense. The Jets will have to air it out a bit to exploit a struggling pass defense.

Both offenses are at risk of ranking last in the league in multiple offensive categories after this game. So don’t expect more than a few candles, let alone fireworks.

Falcons vs. Saints

Fourth-down decisions: Falcons 16th, Saints 21st

The top two coverage units in the league square off, but the New Orleans Saints hold a significant edge in the passing ranking.

Derek Carr will need to be sharp against a tough Atlanta Falcons coverage unit. However, the Falcons struggle to generate pressure. If the Saints can protect Carr, he could find holes in the defense.

The Falcons' ability to take away the run is a bit of a waste against New Orleans’ limited ground attack. Still, the Falcons' rushing attack could be the difference needed to win. The Saints’ run defense is vulnerable, and the Falcons will want to keep this a low-scoring game to minimize the Saints' passing advantage.

Jaguars vs. Titans

Fourth-down decisions: Jaguars 23rd, Titans 5th

The path to an upset starts with the run game. The Tennessee Titans have a stout run defense, while the Jacksonville Jaguars have a below-average run game with near-the-bottom blocking numbers. 

The Titans also run the ball extremely well, and the Jaguars struggle to stop the run. Controlling the clock will be key for the Titans, whose porous coverage unit could be exploited.

This game could come down to a couple of key plays, so it is important to note the Titans have a significant edge in fourth-down decision-making.

Bears vs. Packers

Fourth-down decisions: Bears 8th, Packers 2nd

The Green Bay Packers matchup favorably on paper against the Chicago Bears. They have top-10 passing and receiving metrics against a so-so coverage unit. They also have a considerable blocking vs. pass rush advantage on offense.

Week 18 division rival games are tricky, however. 

There is some opportunity for this game to be a shootout. The Bears’ run defense could force Jordan Love to become more one-dimensional, and a resurgent Justin Fields faces a Packers’ coverage unit that is far from impressive in its own right. 

While the Packers should put themselves in the playoffs, stranger things have happened (see Week 18 of last season).

Eagles vs. Giants

Fourth-down decisions: Eagles 1st, Giants 24th

The New York Giants’ rankings are an eye-sore, but the Philadelphia Eagles are also lower than anticipated in several metrics.

Each of the three Eagles’ defensive categories ranks in the league's bottom half, and their rushing rank is not as high as expected. Fortunately, the Giants' defense is a sieve, and their offense is ranks last in receiving and blocking.

It might not be enough to win the division, but the Eagles should get their groove back.

Cowboys vs. Commanders

Fourth-down decisions: Cowboys 9th, Commanders 19th

The Washington Commanders do not have a favorable matchup on either side of the ball. Their impressive rushing ranking will be challenged by an above-average Dallas Cowboys’ run defense.

With a division title on the line, the Cowboys will look to repeat their earlier matchup against the Commanders. That game included Dak Prescott’s top-ranked passing attack feasting on the Commanders’ coverage unit.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Fourth-down decisions: Seahawks 22nd, Cardinals 3rd

Both rushing attacks should find success, as this is a battle of the two lowest-ranked run defenses in the league.

The Seattle Seahawks have an outside chance at the playoffs and could exploit an Arizona Cardinals defense that struggles to stop the run or get after the quarterback.

Being eliminated from contention did not stop the Cardinals from winning last week, and they have an extremely favorable matchup, bringing the No. 1-ranked rushing attack against the next-to-last run defense.

Chiefs vs. Chargers

Fourth-down decisions: Chiefs 25th, Chargers N/A

The Kansas City Chiefs would have an advantage on both sides of the ball, but with minimal on the line for either team and Patrick Mahomes sitting, the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense gets a break.

The Chargers' defense struggled against the run and the pass, and their running game is a no-show. To top it off, the Chargers' offensive line will be tested greatly against an elite Chiefs pass-rushing unit.

Broncos vs. Raiders

Fourth-down decisions: Broncos 15th, Raiders 29th

The AFC West is not the division to watch this week.

Both teams can focus on next season as the Las Vegas Raiders try to get their lifeless running game going against a sub-par Denver Broncos run defense.

The Broncos could find some success in the passing game against a Raiders defense that struggles to lock down the back end.

Rams vs. 49ers

Fourth-down decisions: Rams 13th, 49ers 10th

With the NFC's No. 1 seed locked up, the San Francisco 49ers will give their elite offense a rest against a mediocre Los Angeles Rams defense.

The Rams do a decent job against the run but struggle to generate pressure or cover down the field. This is not ideal when going against the third-ranked blocking and top-ranked receiving units, even without the starting QB.

The Rams have an advantage running the ball against a below-average 49ers run defense, so the game can be shortened a bit that way.

Bills vs. Dolphins

Fourth-down decisions: Bills 4th, Dolphins 17th

Both teams have some elite units, so playing for the division title on Sunday night is perfect. This is easily the best game of the week.

The Miami Dolphins’ top-ranked blocking unit will be tested against a Buffalo Bills defense strong against the run and gets after the quarterback. The Dolphins’ offensive balance will be key to strategically choosing their battles against a good coverage unit.

The Bills line will also be tested against the top-ranked pass rushing unit in the league, albeit one now without Bradley Chubb after losing Jaelan Phillips earlier in the season. The Bills' run game should find some success against a solid but not exceptional Dolphins run defense.

The biggest key to this game could be the Bills receiving corps, who have struggled, matching up against a good Dolphins coverage unit. Both teams can have explosive plays, which could come down right to the end.

This article was written by Jeff Dean.

Chase Daniel explains why Indianapolis Colts QB Gardner Minshew is the backup quarterback of the year — in a season where QB1s were injured at an alarming rate.

Chase Daniel and Trey Wingo look ahead to Week 18's Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers game. They explain why the suddenly red-hot Bears pose a problem for a Packers team that controls its own playoff destiny.

Chase Daniel and Trey Wingo debate which of last year’s Super Bowl teams is in more trouble with the 2023 NFL Playoffs approaching. Is it the Philadelphia Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs?

There were only five head coaching openings a year ago, far fewer than usual. Three jobs opened in-season in 2023, and the expectation is that the NFL will be back to the normal 6-7 range this cycle, and likely more.

Here are potential candidates for the upcoming coaching cycle. Please note that I’m not including current head coaches who could potentially be available (Bill Belichick) or interim coaches (Antonio Pierce) on this list.

9 Top NFL Coaching Candidates for 2024

Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh

Jim Harbaugh’s name comes up every year, and that won’t stop. But this year feels a little different.

First, there's been all the off-the-field issues, from the sign-stealing scandal to alleged recruiting violations. As a result, some believe Harbaugh may want to leave college coaching simply because of that.

There’s also the possibility that Michigan could win the National Championship on Jan. 8, which was always the ultimate goal for Harbaugh. If that were to happen, he might feel like his work is done with his alma mater.

Third, and potentially most important, Harbaugh recently hired agent Don Yee, who has more than 30 years of experience and represents high-profile NFL clients, including Sean Payton.

Sometimes actions speak louder than words, and it sure feels like this could be the year Harbaugh strongly considers returning to the NFL, where he was 44-19-1 as the 49ers' head coach from 2011-14. He led San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game three times and a Super Bowl appearance in 2012.

Detroit Lions OC Ben Johnson

Ben Johnson will be the most sought-after candidate this offseason. The 37-year-old took over as the Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator in 2022 and rapidly helped their offense evolve into a top unit.

Despite interviewing with several teams last year, he chose to remain in Detroit. Once again, the team boasts one of the most prolific offenses and clinched its division for the first time in 30 years.

Before becoming the offensive coordinator, Johnson coached quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends, showcasing experience in various offensive roles. He fits the mold of the bright, young offensive mind many owners want as a head coach.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers OC Dave Canales

Dave Canales spent 13 years in Seattle before joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past offseason as their offensive coordinator. The 42-year-old has a strong track record with quarterbacks, having served as Seattle’s quarterbacks coach in 2022. He played a significant role in Geno Smith’s Comeback Player of the Year season.

In his first year in Tampa, Canales has achieved similar results by helping Baker Mayfield revive his career to the point where Mayfield could be the long-term answer for the Buccaneers.

A very energetic and positive person, Canales exudes some Pete Carroll vibes, which makes sense considering he was with Carroll for more than a decade. He could be a sneaky candidate in this year’s coaching cycle.

Baltimore Ravens DC Mike Macdonald

Mike Macdonald spent the 2021 season at Michigan as the defensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh before returning to Baltimore last season to be the defensive coordinator under John Harbaugh. The 36-year-old has remade the Baltimore Ravens defense into one of the most feared units in the league. His defense allows a league-low 16.4 points per game and has 57 sacks and 29 takeaways.

Macdonald has probably been the most rapidly rising star on this list in 2023 — and if a team is willing to go young and defensive-minded, he should be at the top of the list.

Dallas Cowboys DC Dan Quinn

The former Falcons head coach has been a popular candidate for the past two years, but it’s been made clear in league circles that Dan Quinn is only going to take a job that he truly wants. He’s been the Dallas Cowboys' defensive coordinator for three years, and he has loved everything about Dallas.

His defense has consistently been among the league’s best each season. It’s no longer a question of if Quinn will get another job; it’s more about when and if that job is good enough for him to leave the joy he’s experienced working in Dallas. He's also one of the highest-paid defensive coordinators in the NFL.

Los Angeles Rams DC Raheem Morris

The Los Angeles Rams have been one of the more special teams this season simply because not many people could’ve seen them having the season they’ve had. Their roster was torn down in the offseason, and the team made virtually no notable signings in free agency. The Rams filled out the roster with mid-to-late-round draft picks and undrafted players.

The development on defense, with players like Ernest Jones, Byron Young, Kobie Turner, Cobie Durant, Derion Kendrick, Russ Yeast and Quentin Lake all getting significant snaps and playing complementary football, is impressive. This all goes back to Raheem Morris, who was the Rams' defensive coordinator when they won the Super Bowl two years ago and has gone through this entire change of players. He has worked closely on getting these players ready week-to-week.

Morris was previously a head coach with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2009-11 when he got the job at age 32, replacing Jon Gruden. Morris was an interim coach for the Falcons in 2020. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has said on numerous occasions that Morris deserves another shot at being a head coach. It’s fair to say that his work this year in Los Angeles might be his best yet.

New York Jets DC Jeff Ulbrich

Some around the league have wondered if there will be a new trend of seeking coaches who are former players and are more of a leader than the X's and O's guy. Dan Campbell is the perfect example in Detroit, and the entire league has taken notice of what Antonio Pierce did as the interim coach of the Raiders.

Jeff Ulbrich, a former 10-year NFL linebacker, has served as the New York Jets’ defensive coordinator since 2021. His energy is infectious, and his players love him. The Jets' defense has consistently ranked among the top in the league every year under his leadership.

Before joining the Jets, Ulbrich spent six years with Dan Quinn in Atlanta, where he was the linebackers coach and eventually gained the assistant head coach title. During that period, he spent time with Kyle Shanahan, who was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator for two years. Many coaches from the Shanahan tree have become fans of Ulbrich, which should help him build his offensive staff if he becomes a head coach.

Las Vegas Raiders DC Patrick Graham

A lot of attention in Las Vegas has rightfully gone to Pierce, who has been outstanding. However, the unsung hero behind the entire defense is Patrick Graham. Graham is very passionate, sets high expectations and holds his players accountable.

Despite lacking top-tier talent beyond Maxx Crosby, the Las Vegas Raiders defense has shown improvement as the season has gone on. Since Week 9, the defense ranks first in the NFL in points allowed (16.3), 10th in takeaways (13), and ninth in sacks (25). They are fourth in the NFL in EPA per play.

“He’s doing a great job leading us and putting us in great positions, and we have a lot of guys that are bought in,” Crosby said of Graham. Teams have sought to interview Graham in the past, and his impactful work on the Raiders' defense this season could lead to more opportunities in the upcoming coaching cycle.

Cincinnati Bengals OC Brian Callahan

Brian Callahan, 39, has worked with some of the top quarterbacks over the years. He was with Peyton Manning during his time with the Broncos, served as the Lions quarterbacks coach with Matthew Stafford and was the Raiders quarterbacks coach with Derek Carr.

Zac Taylor brought him to Cincinnati in 2019, and although Callahan doesn't call plays, he has been an integral part of the Bengals offense. Callahan plays a major role in game planning, and the flashes the team had with Jake Browning should bolster his reputation.

He has interviewed for several head coaching jobs in the past couple of years, including multiple interviews with the Colts last year.

Other Candidates to keep an eye on

• Houston Texans OC Bobby Slowik
• Cincinnati Bengals DC Lou Anarumo
• Miami Dolphins OC Frank Smith
• San Francisco 49ers assistant HC and running backs coach Anthony Lynn
• Baltimore Ravens special teams coordinator Chris Horton

Carson Wentz will be the starting quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18. If you had just that fact ahead of the season, you’d probably assume the Rams’ 2023 season went as poorly or worse than 2022. 

But the 9-7 Rams clinched a playoff spot and have the luxury of resting starters in the regular season finale.

The 2023 season was not expected to be like this in Los Angeles, especially given how the 2022 went. Injuries and underperformance sent Sean McVay into a soul-searching offseason with his coaching future up in the air. 

Even as McVay returned, there was not much hope for a rebound. The Rams’ preseason win total was just 6.5, tied for the second-lowest among all teams. They cleared the over in Week 15, the first game of a three-game win streak.

They are one of the most dangerous wild-card teams heading into the playoffs because of their offensive potential. The Rams enter Week 18 ranked seventh in DVOA and EPA per play. 

This type of turnaround might suggest the Rams have found their 2021 groove. This isn’t the offense that won the Super Bowl. It’s grown. It’s evolved and is more well-rounded.

Nacua, Stafford Steer The Ship

There are still some similarities to McVay’s past offenses. The Rams still work to make all of their plays look the same. This is an offense that has leaned even more into using 11 personnel. The Rams have used three wide receivers on a league-leading 94.3 percent of plays this season. In 2021, the Rams led the league at 83.3 percent.

When healthy, those receivers mostly stay the same. It’s Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Tutu Atwell with a little Demarcus Robinson mixed in. 

Van Jefferson is seventh among all Rams in routes run this season (including tight ends and running backs), and he has not been with the team since he was sent to the Atlanta Falcons at the trade deadline. Having the same receivers allows the Rams to use the same looks to get to just about everything in their offense.

Nacua’s emergence is one of the most impressive developments from this offense. The fifth-round pick is fourth among all players in receiving yards and seventh in target share. He’s 29 yards away from the all-time rookie receiving record. He’s excelled with and without Kupp on the field.

Nacua, at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, is the perfect McVay receiver. He’s smooth as a route runner and physical enough to play tight and run block. That versatility from a receiver — in a McVay offense specifically — opens up so many opportunities, and it’s helped the passing game thrive.

Like the 2021 team, the most significant upside comes from Matthew Stafford's high-level play. Stafford is third among quarterbacks in EPA per play, according to TruMedia. 

He has the same EPA per play (0.15) as he did during the 2021 season but has done so in an environment where the league has shifted toward defensive success. The average EPA per play among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in 2021 was 0.02. In 2023, it’s -0.04.

Stafford still can sling the ball and has made some unreal throws, but the structure of the passing game does not solely rely on the quarterback’s play-making ability. 

When the Rams went to the Super Bowl, they had the most expansive and explosive empty packages in the league. Stafford used empty 29.4 percent of the time.

That allowed the Rams to get five players spread out in a passing route while Stafford pushed the ball down the field. It was on the quarterback to make a play with his arm. With that setup, no team tested defenses more horizontally and vertically than the 2021 Rams offense.

A Change In Formation

This year, the Rams have only gone empty 11.4 percent of the time, which ranks 21st among all offenses. As a replacement, the Rams have gotten better everywhere else. There’s more variance in how Stafford drops back.

The Rams have gone under center just less than 40 percent of the time this season, and they are one of the league’s best offenses while doing it. They rank fifth in EPA per play and first in EPA per dropback under center.

The under-center offense is devastating because the Rams have killed the play-action game. Stafford is just below the league average in overall play-action rate, but the Rams run play-action on 88 percent of his under-center dropbacks. With a league-average 70-30 run-to-pass ratio under center, defenses can’t focus on a tendency.

This is more difficult for defenses because the Rams’ offense looks the same before the snap. One of the Rams’ most-used looks under center is a pre-snap motion from Nacua. 

The Rams will come out in a 2x2 set, and Nacua starts in a condensed split to the tight end side before motioning across the formation to the two-receiver side.

Occasionally, he’ll motion back as the ball is snapped to act as a lead blocker for the Rams’ inside runs. However, when he goes out on a route, the offense shows many different concepts off the same look. 

Nacua can run to the flat or run a go. Against the Giants last week, the Rams set up a screen. Everything is on the table.

When Stafford struggled last season, the offense was just stuck. There was no explosion and not much mystery. Defenses dropped an extra defender into the box to remove crossers from Kupp, and if those weren’t working, not much else did. There’s nothing stale this season, and no one thing defenses can try to take away.

Shifting to Pistol

As the season progressed, modifications to the offense continued. From Stafford's acquisition until Week 5 of 2023, the Rams had used zero snaps of pistol. 

Since Week 6, the Rams have used it on 12.9 percent of snaps, third in the league in that span. That includes three games of at least 20 percent and 18 percent against the Giants in Week 17.

Using pistol is a way to marry more of Stafford’s straight dropback game from shotgun and the under-center run game. From pistol, both avenues are available. 

The dropback game has mostly been quick game for Stafford, with 82 percent of his throws within 2.5 seconds of the snaps, per TruMedia. Still, he’s averaging 0.13 EPA per play with a 57.1 percent success rate.

Meanwhile, the Rams have run 52 times for 310 yards, with 15.4 percent of rushing attempts going 10 or more yards from pistol. It’s a recent changeup, but it works.

Fixing The Running Game

Perhaps the most significant difference for this version of the Rams is the success and deployment of a run game that ranks seventh in EPA per play and fifth in success rate.

The McVay/Shanahan offenses were initially built around the wide zone, using those outside runs to build the play-action game. Kyle Shanahan has moved away from that, and McVay made a hard pivot this season to more gap schemes and runs up the middle.

Yet, there are still shades of the original McVay philosophy as the personnel and motion allow the Rams to run into some of the lightest boxes in the league. For the Rams, 38.5 percent of their rushing attempts have been into a box of six defenders or fewer, the fifth-lowest rate in the league.

This marriage of the old and new has allowed the running game to work. This year, 56 percent of the Rams’ runs have been between the guards, per FTN. That rate was 45 percent in 2021. Not only are the Rams going there more often, but they’re first in adjusted line yards on those carries.

A switch to the gap scheme with an emphasis on running duo (a power scheme with no pullers that emphasizes double teams at the point of attack) has aided the Rams’ offensive line by creating contact quickly instead of using horizontal movement and asking the offensive linemen to reach the second level often.

This vertical run game gives Kyren Williams more choices and control for which gaps to hit when he gets to the line. Despite an offensive line that’s been about average in run block win rate (15th per ESPN), the Rams rank 11th in yards before contact per rush.

Any runway for Williams, the 2022 fifth-round pick from Notre Dame, is a plus because he can be a wrecking ball running through contact. Among backs with at least 100 rushes, Williams ranks fifth in yards after contact per rush.

Williams is first in EPA per rush and success rate among those backs with at least 100 carries. He’s taking advantage of the space provided. He’s faced the highest percentage of rushes into boxes of six defenders or fewer. The Rams have chosen to run straight into those light boxes.

Rams Are Set Up For The Future

The overarching idea for a McVay offense is that everything works together. There might have been better offenses statistically during McVay’s tenure, but there might not be an offense that better reflects that philosophy than this current version. 

The scheme is great. Their quarterback can take over a game. The receivers are exceptional, and the run game is a positive in multiple ways.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rams stole a game in the playoffs. Some defenses in the NFC would struggle to contain this offense. But that isn’t the most important thing here. 

The 2023 season is already a resounding success for this team, and now the future looks brighter after so much unknown in the offseason. McVay did not just come back; he came back better. 

That’s scary for the NFC teams in the playoffs and for teams that will have to defend against this team in the future.

Chase Daniel and Trey Wingo look ahead to Week 18 in the NFL with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and others jockeying for playoff positioning.

This article goes out to all the masochists who play into Week 18. 

After numerous, decisive Week 17 wins and losses, the number of NFL teams with little to nothing to play for outnumbers those still vying for playoff spots in the final week of the NFL regular season.

The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers wrapped up the No. 1 seeds while the Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and Kansas City Chiefs are essentially locked into their spots. This makes it unlikely players from these teams will play for a substantial amount of time this weekend, given the risk of injury heading into the playoffs.  

On the other end of the spectrum, the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, and Washington Commanders are eliminated from playoff contention.

Teams in this category may or may not rest their players since they do not have the playoffs to prepare for, so usage will be more case-by-case. 

This leaves fewer than half of the NFL teams with something on the line this weekend, which will complicate many start/sit decisions.

Below, we will break down one player at each position to target (love) and one player at each position to avoid (hate) for your Week 18 fantasy football lineups based on matchups, injuries, strategies and more.

Players We Love This Week

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (vs. CHI)

The Green Bay Packers hold a precarious 8-8 record heading into the final week of the regular season, which puts them in a four-way tie with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks in a race for the last NFC wild-card spot.

Green Bay is squaring off against its division rivals, the Chicago Bears, who have nothing to play for. The Bears are still likely to play quarterback Justin Fields as they head into a much-anticipated offseason with the Panthers’ No. 1 overall pick. 

Given this situation and recent performance, Jordan Love should be a locked-in QB1 start this week. He has finished as the QB6 and QB2 in back-to-back weeks and has seven touchdowns to zero interceptions in that span.

Love even faced a challenging Minnesota Vikings defense last week on the road and was near-perfect. He should excel in this much softer matchup and must-win game.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Dallas Cowboys (at WAS)

Brandin Cooks is coming off a strong fantasy performance against the Detroit Lions. He caught five of eight targets for 60 yards and a touchdown – his second in two weeks and seventh of the season. 

The Dallas Cowboys are one of a handful of teams who have already clinched a playoff spot but whose playoff seeding remains up in the air. They sit atop the NFC East, tied (in record) with the Philadelphia Eagles, who would earn the No. 1 wild-card spot if the season ended today.

With a decent amount on the line, Cooks should be a sneaky WR2 play this week, especially against the Washington Commanders. Their defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (vs. BUF)

De’Von Achane exploded last week (likely on most managers’ benches) for 14 carries and 107 yards against a shutdown Ravens defense. He also tacked on four catches for 30 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the RB8 in half-PPR scoring – his fifth RB1 in 10 games played this season. 

Like the Cowboys, the Miami Dolphins nabbed a spot in the playoffs but haven't won the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills are just one game behind and have won four straight games, so Miami needs the win (or a tie) to clinch the division title.

The last time these two teams met in Week 4, Achane popped off for more than 100 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. He should be regarded as a premium RB2 option with sky-high RB1 upside in this crucial divisional showdown.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints (vs. ATL)

Juwan Johnson is in the midst of a late-season hot streak. In weeks 15 through 17 (i.e., most leagues’ playoffs), Johnson finished as the TE10, TE4 and TE1 in half-PPR scoring. He was the TE2 in those three weeks combined, behind only David Njoku. 

New Orleans is in a similar boat as Green Bay and needs a Week 18 win to punch its ticket to the playoffs, though their path is slightly more convoluted. They sit in second place in the NFC South, tied with Tampa Bay and in a four-way tie for the potential last wild-card spot.

Johnson and the Saints will be highly motivated heading into this divisional matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, whose defense is subpar against the pass and fantasy tight ends.

Johnson is a fringe top-12 play, who could be a fill-in for an otherwise premium tight end on a team with nothing left to play for.

Players We Hate This Week

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (vs. MIN)

Jared Goff is one of a handful of fantasy-relevant quarterbacks fighting for a higher seed who could still disappoint this weekend. He and the Detroit Lions take on the Vikings (who have the slimmest of playoff chances) at home after facing them just two weeks ago.

Goff was unremarkable in that game, throwing for 257 yards and a touchdown. The team relied heavily on their one-two punch of RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. 

However, the Lions’ situation is not enough to vault Goff into the must-start category. His recent anemic performance, paired with the Vikings’ stout pass defense, should give managers pause. He is a low-end QB1 with a wide range of potential outcomes in a challenging Week 18 faceoff.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. CLE)

Ja’Marr Chase has been a disappointment for fantasy managers this season. He was drafted top three in many leagues – especially in point-per-reception formats. He is the overall WR10 in half-PPR heading into Week 18.

Much of his production has come from a few monster games. The most recent of which occurred in Week 13 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. His numbers have been erratic all season, especially after Joe Burrow’s season was cut short in Week 11.

Managers should temper expectations for Chase, along with most members of this squad, in a game with nothing on the line. As mentioned, the Bengals were eliminated, the Ravens have won the AFC North, and the Browns will nab the No. 5 seed as the conference’s top wild-card team.

Chase could be a sit-candidate in the final week of play, making him far too risky to start in the fantasy finals.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (at LV)

Javonte Williams was mediocre in the Broncos’ Week 16 win against the Chargers. He rushed 15 times for a meager 41 yards and finished as the RB36 in half-PPR. This continues an unfortunate trend of inefficiency. Williams is averaging just 3.6 yards per attempt in his third season in the league. 

The former second-round pick has yet to ink a deal to follow his four-year rookie deal. So in theory, the Broncos could use this game as an additional opportunity to assess his future with the team.

The more likely scenario is Williams and most of Denver’s starters see minimal playing time – especially with QB Russell Wilson already sitting out this game. Williams is an RB3 with limited upside in a game between two eliminated teams.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers (vs. LAR)

George Kittle struggled in what should have been an easy matchup in Week 17 against the Commanders. He caught three of four targets for 29 yards and finished as the week's TE28.

With the 49ers locking up the No. 1 seed, the prospect of Kittle playing enough, only to risk injury, strains credulity. He is a prime example of why fantasy leagues should not play into Week 18 and does not belong in championship lineups.

Motivation plays a massive role in the regular season finale. Several playoff teams are in a position to rest starters but haven’t announced their intentions. 

Regardless of that uncertainty, we’ll provide picks and predictions for every game on the Week 18 slate.

Saturday Slate

Ravens vs. Steelers

Spread: Steelers -4

Total: 36.5

The Baltimore Ravens clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so they are in a position to rest starters against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tyler Huntley will start over Lamar Jackson in this contest. Sportsbooks expected that which is why the line only moved from Steelers -3.5 to Steelers -4 once this became official.

Pittsburgh needs help to make the playoffs, but the team has won two in a row since Mason Rudolph took over at quarterback. Surprisingly, the Steelers have scored 64 points during Ruldoph’s two starts. 

Expect Pittsburgh to be highly motivated.

Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Ravens 13

Colts vs. Texans

Spread: Colts +1

Total: 47.5

This matchup is a win-and-in game for both AFC South rivals. We’ve been saying all season that Shane Steichen’s Indianapolis Colts are the league’s most overachieving team. The fact that they are even in this position is a remarkable achievement. 

Indianapolis beat the Houston Texans 31-20 in Week 2, but the Texans are a far more dangerous team now.

C.J. Stroud returned to action last week, and he remains the favorite in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. The Colts are giving up the sixth-most points per game this season. Houston doesn’t have a supremely talented roster, but neither does Indianapolis. Stroud is the biggest difference-maker on either team.

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 20

Sunday Slate

Panthers vs. Buccaneers

Spread: Panthers +5.5

Total: 37.5

We’re entering the final week of the regular season, and no one wants to win the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers control their own destiny. They’ll win the division with a victory in Carolina. 

The Carolina Panthers are coming off a 26-0 loss to C.J. Beathard’s Jaguars, which shows literally anyone can beat the Panthers by distance. The Buccaneers have the raw materials to do that, but they aren’t exactly a model of consistency. 

To beat the Buccaneers, you generally have to throw on them. That means a bet on Carolina is either a bet against Baker Mayfield or a bet on Bryce Young.

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 17

Titans vs. Jaguars

Spread: Titans +5.5

Total: 39.5

The Tennessee Titans’ roster is filled with holes, but they are a well-coached team that’s already pulled off several upsets this season. If the Jacksonville Jaguars win this contest, they’ll win the AFC South. Playing the role of spoiler is the only motivation Tennessee has.

Trevor Lawrence missed last week’s contest, but there is optimism he’ll return against Tennessee. If he plays, the Jaguars have the raw materials to light up Tennessee’s beatable pass defense. The Titans’ pass rush has been reduced by injury, making Lawrence’s life easier.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Titans 16

Lions vs. Vikings

Spread: Lions -3

Total: 45

Dan Campbell said the Detroit Lions will play their starters this week, but that doesn’t guarantee they’ll play the whole game. If they do, Detroit could realistically roll the free-falling Minnesota Vikings. 

The Vikings have lost five of their last six games while playing musical chairs at quarterback. The decision to start rookie Jaren Hall in primetime against rival Green Bay last week was questionable at best. 

Nick Mullens returns as the Vikings starting quarterback. Mullens passed for 411 yards against the Lions on Christmas Eve, but he also threw four interceptions.

Score Prediction: Lions 24, Vikings 17

Saints vs. Falcons

Spread: Saints -3.5

Total: 42

You could argue this contest features the two most maddening teams in the NFL. Both have talented rosters, but both have been wildly inconsistent. 

The New Orleans Saints have a more stable quarterback in Derek Carr and one of the league’s best home-field advantages. Alvin Kamara is in danger of missing this contest, which would make New Orleans’ offense less versatile.

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 37-17 beatdown in Chicago. They’ve played musical chairs at quarterback all season; Taylor Heinicke is the current starter. Atlanta beat New Orleans 24-15 in Week 12. 

Both teams need help to make the playoffs, although the Saints have more paths with a win against Atlanta.

Score Prediction: Saints 23, Falcons 20

Patriots vs. Jets

Spread: Patriots -2

Total: 30.5

This could be Bill Belichick’s last game as the coach of the New England Patriots. If that is the case, New England hosting the New York Jets is poetic. 

Regardless of Belichick’s future, his Patriots continue to be a high-effort team. New England is 2-2 in its last four, with competitive losses to the Chiefs and Bills. The Patriots’ offense is a bottom-tier unit, but their defense continues to be rock solid. Belichick’s defense could carry this team to victory against New York like the unit did in Week 3.

The Jets’ offense is among the league’s worst, and their defense has had a rough month. New York has given up at least 28 points in each of its last three games. That probably doesn’t happen against New England, but motivation is more of a question for the Jets than the Patriots.

Score Prediction: Patriots 16, Jets 10

Bengals vs. Browns

Spread: Bengals -6

Total: 38.5

The Cleveland Browns have already clinched a wild-card berth, which puts them in position to rest their starters. That’s why sportsbooks have the Cincinnati Bengals as six-point home favorites. 

Joe Flacco has thrown for more than 300 passing yards in four straight games, all of which were Cleveland victories. However, Jeff Driskel will start this week with Flacco resting before the playoffs. Driskel is the Browns’ fifth starter this season. 

Jake Browning has kept the Bengals competitive, going 3-3 in his six starts. But he's a volatile backup quarterback who has underwhelmed in those three losses. It’s hard to count on Browning, but we can expect the Bengals to play hard against their interstate rival.

Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Browns 13

Giants vs. Eagles

Spread: Giants +5.5

Total: 41.5

The New York Giants have one of the league’s thinnest rosters, but they’ve stayed competitive throughout the season’s second half. Tyrod Taylor nearly led New York to an upset win against the Rams last week. And he came on in relief duty against the Eagles on Christmas, which gave the Giants’ offense a spark in that matchup, as well. 

The Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary is a liability. If New York upsets Philadelphia, Taylor likely has a strong game through the air. With that in mind, the Eagles’ pass rush will have a trench advantage against New York.

The Eagles suffered a brutal loss to the Cardinals last week, which pushed Philadelphia out of the NFC East lead. The Eagles now need Dallas to lose to Washington to take back the lead in the division. 

Because Philadelphia and Dallas play in the 4:25 p.m. slot, expect the Eagles to play this game to win. On Christmas, the Eagles ran all over New York, so it would be a surprise if they didn’t start this game more run-centric than normal.

Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Giants 20

Commanders vs. Cowboys

Spread: Commanders +13

Total: 45.5

If the Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders, they’ll win the NFC East and finish as the NFC’s No. 2 seed. The Cowboys have two major advantages in this contest. 

First, Dak Prescott has massive upside against Washington’s league-worst pass defense. The Cowboys’ pass rush will also have a major advantage against the Commanders’ bottom-tier offensive line. 

Dallas has a clear path to winning this game by distance against a Washington team that has lost seven games in a row.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Commanders 17

Packers vs. Bears

Spread: Packers -3

Total: 44

The Green Bay Packers will make the playoffs with a win against rival Chicago. If that happens, Jordan Love likely carries Green Bay’s offense to victory. Suddenly, Love has a shot to lead the league in passing touchdowns; he’s only two behind Prescott.

Love will face an ascending Chicago Bears’ defense that is giving up the fewest rushing yards in the league.

Chicago has won four of its last five and is two or three plays away from a seven-game winning streak. Love has been more consistent than Justin Fields, but you could argue the Bears are a better team than Green Bay.

Score Prediction: Bears 23, Packers 20

Raiders vs. Broncos

Spread: Raiders -2.5

Total: 38

This is a divisional matchup between two teams with little to play for other than pride. The Las Vegas Raiders’ defense is one of the league’s most overachieving units since Antonio Pierce took over in Week 9. 

The Raiders are 4-4 under Pierce, which is remarkable because Aidan O’Connell has started each of those games. O’Connell will have his hands full against a capable Denver Broncos defense.

Jared Stidham took over for Russell Wilson last week against the Chargers. That pivot was a business decision, which could easily be the difference between a win and a loss this week. 

The Raiders have more talent on offense than Denver, so the Broncos' defense likely drives a win.

Score Prediction: Raiders 20, Broncos 17

49ers vs. Rams

Spread: 49ers -3.5

Total: 42.5

The San Francisco 49ers have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which means the 49ers could rest their starters. Sam Darnold has been named the starting quarterback, so we can reasonably expect the 49ers to rest or limit several key players.

The Los Angeles Rams are in a similar position, as they’ve already clinched a wild-card spot. However, if they lose this game and the Packers beat Chicago, the Rams would fall from the sixth seed to the seventh. Regardless of that shift, Carson Wentz will start this game while Los Angeles is expected to rest several other key players.

Score Prediction: 49ers 23, Rams 20

Chargers vs. Chiefs

Spread: Chargers -3

Total: 35.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are in a position to rest their starters because they are locked into the No. 3 seed. Blaine Gabbert will replace Patrick Mahomes in this contest.

Still, the Justin Herbert-less Los Angeles Chargers are beatable. Los Angeles has lost all four games Easton Stick has played and has been one of the worst teams in the league.

The biggest advantage for the Chargers is that edge Khalil Mack and safety Derwin James are practicing with no restrictions.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 17, Chargers 13

Cardinals vs. Seahawks

Spread: Cardinals +2.5

Total: 48

The Arizona Cardinals are 3-4 with Kyler Murray starting, and they just upset the Eagles on the road last week. The Cardinals have one of the league’s weaker rosters, but they are playing hard, and Murray makes them dangerous.

The Seattle Seahawks gave up 30 points to Mason Rudolph’s Steelers last week. That loss will cost Seattle the playoffs if the Packers beat the Bears. You could argue Seattle is the most disappointing team this season, but it has the raw materials to win this game with distance.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 23

Sunday Night 

Dolphins vs. Bills

Spread: Dolphins +3

Total: 50

The Buffalo Bills have won four in a row and five of their last six, pushing themselves back into the playoff picture. If Buffalo wins this game, it will be AFC’s No. 2 seed. If the Bills lose this game, there are scenarios where they won’t make the playoffs.

Buffalo beat Miami 48-20 in Week 4.

At full strength, the Miami Dolphins are a supremely talented team with great play-callers on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, the Dolphins are managing a litany of injuries that are turning them into a less capable team. 

A few key players on offense are questionable for this game, but Miami’s defense has been hit hard. The Dolphins will be without both of their starting edge rushers and, likely, CB Xavien Howard. LB Jerome Baker is still on injured reserve, meaning Miami could be down four of its best seven defenders.

If the Dolphins win, they finish the year as AFC East champions and the No. 2 seed in the conference. That said, they are three-point home underdogs for a reason. 

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 23