NFL Analysis
12/13/23
5 min read
NFL Week 15 Injury Analysis: Examining How Playoff Teams Have Fared Without Starting QBs
This week, the trend of quarterback injuries continued. Justin Herbert is out for the season after having finger surgery, and C.J. Stroud is in concussion protocol. Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett were also added to the long list of quarterbacks who have missed a game this season.
The playoff race is starting to heat up as we head into the final month of the regular season, and injuries to quarterbacks are helping shape that race.
QBs With at Least One Game Missed
| QB | Injury |
| Justin Fields | Thumb |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | Concussion/Back |
| Daniel Jones | Neck/Knee |
| Anthony Richardson | Shoulder |
| Aaron Rodgers | Achilles |
| Ryan Tannehill | Ankle |
| Deshaun Watson | Shoulder |
| Bryce Young | Ankle |
| Justin Herbert* | Finger |
| Joe Burrow | Wrist |
| Kirk Cousins | Achilles |
| Geno Smith | Elbow |
| Kenny Pickett | Ankle |
| Desmond Ridder | Concussion |
| Matthew Stafford | Thumb |
*Will miss first game this week
Because quarterback is the most influential position in football, an injury to the position can derail a team’s season, as we’ve seen with the New York Jets.
Let’s look at how teams in the playoff race have dealt with their QB1 missing time.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings’ record stood at 4-4 when Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. Public perception was that the Vikings’ season was over because of how much Cousins meant to that team. He ranked third in passing Total Points among quarterbacks at the time of his injury.
The Vikings have gone 3-1 since Cousins’ injury despite the offense taking a step back. This table takes a look at the on/off splits for Cousins this year:
| On-Field | Off-Field | |
| EPA/60 Plays | -1 | -7 |
The Vikings' offense wasn’t lighting the world on fire with Cousins, but you can see why Minnesota would want to make a change at quarterback to see if Nick Mullens can provide a spark.
Minnesota finishes with a brutal four-game stretch, playing the Lions twice and the Bengals and Packers. The offense must improve if the Vikings want to reach the playoffs.
Justin Jefferson’s return would be essential, but the offense has been 2.0 EPA per 60 plays better with Jefferson off the field (much of which overlaps with Cousins’ absence).
Obviously, getting Jefferson back is critical, but improved quarterback play will be the deciding factor in the Vikings’ playoff fate.
Cincinnati Bengals
Our sample size for the Cincinnati Bengals is limited, because Jake Browning has only started the last three games. Similarly to the Vikings, public perception was that the Bengals’ season was over once Joe Burrow was injured.
Yet they are 2-1 in Browning’s starts and have put up 34 points in the past two games. Here are Cincinnati's splits without Burrow.
| On-Field | Off-Field | |
| EPA/60 Plays | -3 | -1 |
Remember, it is a small sample size, but the Bengals' offense has performed better from an EPA perspective with Browning than Burrow. The rushing EPA metrics are the same, so it’s just the passing offense that has improved.
Let’s take a look at some passing and receiving stats with Burrow on and off the field:
| On-Field | Off-Field | |
| Attempts | 364 | 105 |
| ADoT | 6.4 | 5.1 |
| Yds/Att | 6.3 | 8.7 |
| Yds/Dropback | 5.5 | 7.6 |
Burrow has significantly more attempts, but we can’t help but notice the differences in ADoT and yards per attempt. Burrow’s were similar at 6.4 and 6.3, respectively. However, Browning has a 3.6 yards difference in ADoT and yards per attempt.
Let’s take a look at the receiving data:
| On-Field | Off-Field | |
| Yds/Tgt | 6.3 | 8.7 |
| YAC/Rec | 5.5 | 7.6 |
| Avg YACBC* | 3.2 | 4.1 |
* Yards after catch before contact
This table shows us that Bengals receivers have averaged 2.1 yards more after the catch without Burrow, which could explain the improvement in the Bengals' offense in the last three games.
Easier throws and more space for the receivers to operate have made the passing game more consistent.
Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns have been playing a game of musical chairs at quarterback all season. Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Joe Flacco have all started.
Despite getting below-average quarterback play all season, the Browns are sitting at 8-5 and are leading the AFC’s wild-card race.
Looking at the EPA metrics with Watson on and off the field gives us this:
| On-Field | Off-Field | |
| EPA/60 Plays | -6 | -13 |
The Browns’ offense has performed twice as poorly with Watson off the field. Since Cleveland has started multiple quarterbacks this year, let’s break it down by each:
| QB | Snaps | EPA/60 Plays |
| Watson | 364 | -6 |
| Walker | 226 | -15 |
| Thompson-Robinson | 192 | -14 |
| Flacco | 137 | -9 |
That table does not paint a pretty picture, but we can see why the Browns chose the experienced Flacco instead of Thompson-Robinson or the journeyman Walker.
The Browns' defense deserves all the credit in the world — specifically Myles Garrett, who deserves to be in the MVP conversation.
Rest of the League
Stroud is in concussion protocol, and his absence would be brutal for the Texans’ playoff hopes. He ranks seventh in Total Points among quarterbacks.
Herbert being ruled out for the rest of the season should be the knockout blow to the Chargers’ long shot playoff hopes, and it could also be the nail in the coffin for the Brandon Staley era.
That said, the teams above can attest that the backups could still keep the ship afloat.
This article was written by JD Allen.
