Betting
12/26/23
6 min read
NFL 2023 Week 17 Survivor Pool Picks, Predictions
There are a ton of playable options in survivor pool this week. We’ll preview all of them before finalizing our survivor pool analysis in our Saturday morning betting preview.
You can also check out our survivor pool channel in our free Discord.
WEEK 17 SURVIVOR POOL PICKS
San Francisco 49ers (at Washington Commanders)
Spread: 49ers -13.5
From a survivor pool perspective, the San Francisco 49ers' Week 16 loss to the Baltimore Ravens was a good thing if you’ve held San Francisco for this Week 17 matchup. The Washington Commanders have the league’s worst pass defense and one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
The 49ers’ have the league’s best four-man pass rush, and Brock Purdy was the MVP favorite just a few days ago. San Francisco is in position to win this game by distance.
Week 18 Matchup: vs. LAR
Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots)
Spread: Bills -12
Back in Week 7, the Buffalo Bills lost to the New England Patriots, 29-25. Buffalo is on a three-game winning streak — while New England has won two of its last three. The Bills are highly motivated and “should” win this game, but they are not as strong of a play as the 49ers.
Right now, there are no weather concerns, but check in on that because severe wind and snow are normal this time of year in Buffalo.
Week 18 Matchup: at MIA
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Spread: Eagles -11
The Philadelphia Eagles still have a talented roster, but they are not the same team they were last season. Their secondary, in particular, continues to be a liability. That group gives Kyler Murray a path to a big day, which in turn gives the Arizona Cardinals a shot at giving the Eagles a scare.
If you still have Philadelphia, the team is playable this week and next week unless it decides to rest key players.
Week 18 Matchup: at NYG
Cleveland Browns (vs. New York Jets)
Spread: Browns -7.5
The Cleveland Browns are a dangerous team, but their roster has a number of parallels with the New York Jets'. The biggest difference is Joe Flacco, who has saved Cleveland’s season in many ways. This week, he’ll go up against a highly capable Jets pass defense that is familiar with Flacco, who played in New York last year.
For survivor purposes, treat Cleveland as more of a three-point favorite where Flacco could struggle against a high-end pass defense.
Week 18 Matchup: at CIN
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Carolina Panthers)
Spread: Jaguars -7
The Jacksonville Jaguars are on a four-game losing streak and can’t be trusted, plain and simple. Trevor Lawrence is playing through an injury to the point his status was in question for most of last week. He was relieved by C.J. Beathard for a big portion of last week’s game against Tampa Bay.
The spread in this matchup against the Carolina Panthers indicates that sportsbooks expect Lawrence to play. If he's a full go, Jacksonville is a strong option. As things stand today, the Jaguars should be avoided if Beathard is forced to start.
Week 18 Matchup: at TEN
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Spread: Chiefs -7
For the first time in a long time, the Kansas City Chiefs are an unreliable team in survivor pools. The Chiefs have lost three of their last four, including last week’s brutal loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Jake Browning’s Cincinnati Bengals were brought back to reality by the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. This is another game where the heavy favorite “should” win, but the Chiefs are an unreliable team right now.
Furthermore, these are familiar opponents; they've played each other four times between 2021 and 2022. This contest should be treated more like a divisional matchup in that sense.
Week 18 Matchup: at LAC
Los Angeles Rams (at New York Giants)
Spread: Rams -6
The Los Angeles Rams have won five of their last six games, with that lone loss coming against the Ravens in overtime on the road. Los Angeles is a highly motivated team with one of the best quarterback and coach duos in the league.
Los Angeles will face a New York Giants team that played two quarterbacks last week. The Rams are a solid option in this matchup and won’t be playable next week unless the 49ers sit all of their starters.
Week 18 Matchup: at SF
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Detroit Lions)
Spread: Cowboys -6.5
The spread for this contest makes it a matchup that warrants mention in survivor pools. That said, if you saved the Dallas Cowboys this long, you probably didn’t hold them to use them against the Detroit Lions.
This contest should be avoided in the vast majority of scenarios. However, Dallas will be usable next week against Washington if the Cowboys play all their starters.
Week 18 Matchup: at WAS
Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee Titans)
Spread: Texans -3.5
If C.J. Stroud plays in this contest, he could shred the Tennessee Titans' porous pass defense. Further, the Houston Texans beat the Titans in Tennessee with Case Keenum just two weeks ago.
If Stroud plays, the Texans are a better option than Dallas and are a strong game theory pivot from a number of options.
Week 18 Matchup: at IND
Denver Broncos (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
Spread: Broncos -5
It’s hard to trust the Denver Broncos after their Week 16 loss to the Patriots. That said, the Los Angeles Chargers are just playing out the season with Easton Stick at quarterback.
The Broncos are a highly motivated team with a narrow path to making the playoffs. They are an aggressive, even unreliable, game theory pivot.
Week 18 Matchup: at LV
Chicago Bears (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Spread: Bears -3
If you need to get creative, betting against the Atlanta Falcons with a Chicago Bears team that is 4-2 in its last six warrants consideration. The Bears have the better quarterback and the better defense. They’ll also host a dome team on New Year’s Eve in Chicago.
Week 18 Matchup: at GB
