Betting

9/25/22

15 min read

LIVE Blog - Week 3 Fantasy/Betting/DFS Updates

By The 33rd Team

Live fantasy and betting blog

"Trevor Lawrence is getting more comfortable with this offense and is putting his talents on full display. Jacksonville is a very exciting group to watch right now." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 6:45 PM EST

"It's pretty clear that you can't start any Seahawks RBs moving forward. Travis Homer’s role on 3rd downs caps the upside when Penny and Walker are already eating into each other’s workload." - Zach Cohen (@ZachCohenFB) 5:45 PM EST

"Watching Chargers-Jaguars, and it's clear that Keenan Allen is missed. The Chargers offensive play-calling and the overall offense has looked awkward, with Austin Ekeler the only short option available on each pass play." - Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 5:35 PM EST

"Twitter bullied Arthur Smith into getting Kyle Pitts the ball more frequently and ATL has 17 points this half with him being heavily utilized." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 5:30 PM EST

"Justin Fields with two really bad interceptions in this game." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 3:20 p.m. EST.

"Millions of survivor entries are in SERIOUS jeopardy again in Week 3– the Vikings haven’t led yet against their division rival, at home. Minnesota hasn’t lost to the Lions at home since 2017!" - Chris Farley (@FarleyBets) 3:06 p.m. EST.

"Lions are getting pretty good pressure.  They’d be down by ten if Detroit punted at midfield earlier." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 3:05 p.m. EST.

With Julio Jones out for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers again: "Breshad Perriman will be utilized down the field, Gage intermediate routes, and Beasley/Miller will work the slot." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 3:00 p.m. EST.

Justin Herbert Will Play AND Start

Per Chris Farley's tweet below, with Herbert starting, the line has now moved to Chargers -6.5, almost back to the opening line of -7.

*Update: as of 3:10 p.m. EST, the line is Chargers -7.

Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is active and starting today.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 25, 2022

Week 3 Early Slate

"Vikings score off the failed 4th down conversion by Detroit. Tie game with 1:12 to go in the half." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 2:23 p.m. EST.

"Tua’s concussed. We are going to see what the offense looks like with Teddy Bridgewater." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 2:21 p.m. EST.

*Editor's Update: Tua Tagovailoa ran out of the tunnel and hyped the crowd up, seemingly indicating he would be returning to the game.*

"Chiefs force a Matt Ryan fumble in Colts' end. Capitalize after a goal-to-go drive is extended by a holding penalty." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 2:20 p.m. EST.

"Cole Kmet catches wide-open crosser. Was wide open earlier in the game on a similar route, but a very off-line Fields throw led to an interception. Much different role for Kmet this week." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 2:17 p.m. EST.

"Lions fail 4th and 2 conversion at mid-field while up." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 2:14 p.m. EST.

"Dameon Pierce looking good against Chicago. Consistent yards after contact." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 2:08 p.m. EST.

"Burrow has made ridiculous plays in pressure management. Bengals offensive line is still struggling." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 2:03 p.m. EST.

"Live 3rd QTR bets on the Chiefs — almost automatic that they’ll come on fire if they’re down at the half." - Chris Farley (@FarleyBets) 1:53 p.m. EST.

"Just live bet Ja’Marr Chase OVER 48.5 yards receiving. The targets and air yards have been there, and this Bengals offense is starting to cook." - Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) 1:50 p.m. EST.

"Bettors should keep an eye on the Commanders in the 2nd half. This is typical - expect Washington to come alive in the 2nd half. Look for value now while they’re down big." - Chris Farley (@FarleyBets) 1:49 p.m. EST.

"Just live bet the Patrick Mahomes passing yards OVER (285.5). Mahomes just missed MVS on the first drive for a long TD. Then, Kelce is wide open deep for a long completion. Colts pass defense is leaky, and with the Colts’ early lead, the Chiefs will have to keep their foot on the gas." - Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) 1:39 p.m. EST.

"Still hard to fully decipher the KC WR pecking order, but Mahomes’ first two passes went to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS had two steps deep on Kenny Moore, would have been an easy TD if Mahomes didn't overthrow him." - Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) 1:18 p.m. EST.

Last-Minute Updates

"With the Justin Herbert injury status looming we may not have been paying attention to the Keenan Allen injury closely enough. I am benching Allen where I have him at this point."- Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 12:49 p.m. EST.

"I impulsively made a few Derek Carr-Davante Adams-Darren Waller stacks this morning. I really don't think Carr is a DFS-winning QB this week. But, if Carr does drop 25 fantasy points this week, I'm almost certain both Adams and Waller are hitting in this scenario. Hunter Renfrow is OUT with a concussion; this is a rare opportunity to get a double stack where we can realistically see 60-70% of the team's targets funneled there." - Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) 12:45 p.m. EST.

"I know Taysom Hill has had some production early on this season, mainly Week 1. But don't overweight his inactive status, as it pertains to the Saints' other pieces. His opportunity share has been pretty low so far, meaning opportunities for the rest of the Saints players should remain close to the status quo." - Maxx Forde (@Maxx Forde) 12:42 p.m. EST.

"J.K. Dobbins will make his season debut today while back-up RB Kenyan Drake will not be active. I expect Dobbins will have over his 11.5 projected rushing attempts on Underdog. I also moved Dobbins up to RB30 in my rankings, he can be started in your flex if necessary." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 12:08 p.m. EST.

"Miles Sanders/Philly DST is fitting into a lot of my builds, and something I am getting to. Washington has gotten dominated against the run, and their offensive line did not look good in the loss to Detroit." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 11:53 a.m. EST.

"Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 60 percent of the Dolphins' targets, 34 catches, for 524 yards, and 5 TDs. The match-up this week was thought to be a tough one against Buffalo, but both of the Bills safeties, and top defensive communicators, will be out this week." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 10:55 a.m. EST.

Ryan Reynolds' Survivor Pool Advice

"I expected Week 3 to be one of the more difficult survivor weeks before the season started. Dak Prescott being out against the Giants and Justin Herbert being in a situation where he probably shouldn’t play against the Jaguars makes a difficult slate even tougher. I’m going to start my matchups update with the survivor-relevant contests." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 10:51 AM.

Ravens at Patriots

Packers at Buccaneers

"Green Bay LT David Bakhtiari is in, which means the Packers’ offensive line will have all its starters. Rookie wide receiver Christian Watson will reportedly miss this contest, while Randall Cobb will play. On the Tampa Bay side Cole Beasley was elevated to the active roster, while Julio Jones remains a gametime decision." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 11:01 AM.

Bills at Dolphins

"Safety Jordan Poyer will also miss this contest, which means that Buffalo’s entire secondary is out for this matchup. It’s now entirely on Josh Allen and Buffalo’s pass rush (which will be down DT Ed Oliver) to beat this ascending Miami team." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 10:54 AM.

Raiders at Titans

"Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan is out for the year and Edge Bud Dupree will miss this contest. For the Raiders, WR Hunter Renfrow and LB Denzel Perryman are out, while RB Josh Jacobs ended up flying to Tennessee on Saturday.

The Lewan injury is a real problem for Tennessee long-term, and against the Raiders premium Edge duo. Unless Derick Henry returns to form behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines, the already struggling Titans offense has an uphill battle against Vegas this week." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 10:53 AM.

Eagles at Commanders

"The Eagles look like they’ll go into this one at full strength. CB William Jackson III and linebacker David Mayo were late week adds to the injury report for Washington. Both Commanders defenders are currently listed as questionable.

The Eagles are one of the five biggest favorites on the slate, so that alone makes them a reasonable survivor consideration. My concern here is that Washington has some quality position groups in their offensive and defensive lines, while their talented wide receivers have started hot. If Carson Wentz plays well, or Jalen Hurts plays down, Washington can give the Eagles a run here. That quarterback volatility has me looking elsewhere for survivor purposes." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 10:53 AM.

Chiefs at Colts

"Colts’ linebacker Shaquille Leonard will miss his third contest. While that doesn’t radically change my original outlook on this game, that’s certainly not a positive for Indianapolis. I’m not outright opposed to taking the Chiefs in survivor, but I’m going to take my chances elsewhere." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 10:52 AM.

Bengals at Jets

"Bengals linebacker Germaine Pratt is doubtful, while TE Hayden Hurst and RT La’el Collins are both Questionable. For the Jets, there are no injury downgrades since matchups were released.

I try to approach survivor with the mindset that I want to select options where I can live with it if they lose as often as possible. Joe Burrow’s Bengals are 0-2. Cincinnati is motivated, relatively healthy, and if Joe Flacco’s Jets beat Joe Burrow’s Bengals under those conditions, I can live with that decision." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 10:52 AM.

Lions at Vikings

Harrison Smith is out for the Vikings. Left Guard Jonah Jackson is out for Detroit, while RB D’Andre Swift, TE T.J. Hockenson, Center Frank Ragnow, and Edge Aidan Hutchinson are all questionable. Detroit has more injury uncertainty that Minnesota.

I’m not worried about Kirk Cousins or the Vikings offense. My concern here with using the Vikings as a survivor option is that I treat the Lions and Vikings offenses as relative equals. Further, Detroit has made a habit of playing the Vikings tight in recent years. I’m going to use Minnesota in one of my survivor pools, but that selection is based more on need on a tough slate than want." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 10:52 AM.

Jaguars at Chargers

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"Herbert’s in a situation where even if he starts, he’s one bad hit away from leaving early. Two high-end players for the Chargers center Corey Linsley and CB J.C. Jackson are both doubtful. CB Shaquill Griffin is the only Jaguars starter currently on the injury report.

Justin Herbert is debating a gametime pain management shot so he can play in this contest. The line has moved from Chargers -7 down to Chargers -3.5, even Chargers -3 at some spots. For survivor, I’m going to pass on the Chargers here, see what happens, and then potentially deploy them next week in another dicey survivor slate in Houston. Considering the Chargers' likely desire to keep Herbert clean while being aware that Chase Daniels might see action in this matchup, Austin Ekeler has made it into my DraftKings pool. It would be extremely logical if Ekeler saw a usage spike in the passing game this week." - Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 10:51 AM.

Late Injuries, Cheap Finds, and other Notes

"Patriots’ WR Jakobi Meyers, listed as questionable today due to a knee injury, is not expected to play vs. the Ravens, per multiple sources. But it’s the Patriots so we won’t really know until the last possible moment. Kendrick Bourne is probably the biggest target benefactor, but I’m also moving Nelson Agholor and DeVante Parker up in my rankings as they face an already depleted Ravens secondary." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 10:36 a.m. EST.

"Kendrick Bourne is my favorite sub $4,000 tournament WR on DraftKings this weekend." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 10:22 a.m. EST.

"Was thinking about making a DK lineup with Chase Daniel, but the Jags defense is pretty solid." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 10:21 a.m. EST.

"Looks like the Chargers, and Herbert, are being smart about injections after the Charges nearly ended Tyrod Taylor's career. The irony is obvious." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 10:18 a.m. EST.

"We currently live in a world where Nick Chubb is the RB1 in all scoring formats and Clyde Edwards-Helaire and James Robinson are in the top-6... accurate rankings are difficult." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 10:06 a.m. EST.

Running Back Injuries

"Ke'Shawn Vaughn a healthy scratch again speaks to some level of confidence in Leonard Fournette's hamstring. I have Fournette as my RB7 this week, just ahead of Austin Ekeler." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 9:52 a.m. EST.

"I heard many analysts flocking to get Zamir White immediately, but don't be surprised to see a 50/50 split this week. Brandon Bolden had a role in Week 1, has pass-catching upside, and experience. White is a solid long-term play." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 9:42 a.m. EST.

"This year has been a little off-kilter. Week 1 felt more like a normal Week 3, Week 2 felt like a traditional Week 1. I expect Week 3 will be somewhere in-between. But buckle your seatbelts, because any given Sunday the lowliest team can jump up and bite the reigning Super Bowl Champions. Nothing exemplifies this more than Sammy Watkins getting 19 yards in Week 1, where he normally goes nuts, then going for 93 yards in Week 2 and being out for Week 3." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 9:28 a.m. EST.

"I find it crazy the number of people that are panicking on players and making rash moves that will decimate any chance of winning this game. Maybe it’s been a while since I’ve been exposed to novice players. I am a high school teacher, and there are a large number of students playing fantasy football this year. My students have been asking me for roster advice, and I saw Allen Robinson, Cam Akers, and Breece Hall on waivers over the first two weeks, Thursday was my official, 'pick up Treylon Burks day.' I forced all my students to drop their backup QB or TE and pick up Burks." - Kevin Wheeler (FFWheeler) 9:28 a.m. EST.

WATCH MORE: Josh Larky's Fantasy World with Ben Wolbransky

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The 33rd Team

The 33rd Team is a Football Think Tank created by Mike Tannenbaum.

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