Analysis

10/14/23

8 min read

First Read: Zach Wilson Learning How to Play Winning Football

When Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the first drive of the season, the hopes and dreams of the New York Jets’ organization and fan base were in the balance knowing that 2021 second overall pick Zach Wilson would be back under center. With Wilson’s performance across 2021 and 2022 still on their minds, there was clearly an indication of what was ahead, and it was fair to say that the Jets’ season could’ve been lost.

Over the last two games, the narrative around Wilson may be slowly changing. There is hope that the 2-3 Jets can push for the playoffs with 12 games remaining, including this Sunday’s matchup against Jalen Hurts and company at MetLife Stadium.

After a slow start across the first three weeks that was reminiscent of his first two seasons in New York, I have seen incremental growth in Wilson’s maturity, confidence and overall performance in the last two games against the Kansas City Chiefs (a 23-20 loss) and Denver Broncos (a 31-21 win). Wilson has given the Jets organization a glimmer of hope that something special, even without the presence of Rodgers on the field, might be in the works.

Statistical breakdown Com Att Yds TD Int
First three games 44 84 467 2 4
Last two games 47 65 444 2 1

In the past two games, Wilson has completed 47 of his 65 passes (72.3 percent) for 444 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The tape has clearly validated that the 24-year-old has developed as a passer, and as the season continues to progress, he has the opportunity to alter the narrative on his still very early journey in the NFL.

How Has Wilson Improved?

Footwork

One of the most significant improvements I’ve seen from Wilson this season is his more disciplined footwork. While he looked sloppy and inconsistent on his drops in 2022, his tape over the past two weeks shows a quarterback whose feet are in rhythm with the timing of the pass concepts called by offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.

New York Jets Zach Wilson

Throwing Mechanics

His mechanical improvements do not stop there, as he has become more consistent staging the ball, which is a key component to his improved accuracy. Early last season, Wilson often held the ball low and away from his body before his delivery, lengthening his throwing motion and inhibiting his ability to get the ball up and out quickly and accurately. This season, his improved staging of the football with the tip of the ball at the “V” of the neck has led to better ball security, timing of his release and overall accuracy which, as previously mentioned, has dramatically improved.

Decision-Making

In addition to his mechanical growth, Wilson is showing improved discipline as a decision-maker.

The tape validates that the game has begun to slow down for him. He’s been more comfortable amidst chaos in the confines of the pocket and is working through his progressions and finding the open man or settling for a secondary flare control receiver. When no open receiver is available, he’s shown a more keen understanding of when to take off and extend plays with his arm or legs outside the pocket.

This was clearly illustrated in the Jets’ primetime matchup with Kansas City when Wilson nearly led his team to a comeback victory after being down 17-0 in the first half. In previous seasons, Wilson might have pressed in this area by recklessly overestimating his ability, which led to turnovers. Instead, against the Chiefs he showed visible confidence and poise by continuing to make good decisions. Throughout that game, it appeared to me that a more mature and confident Wilson had his teammates rallying around him.

The drive coming out of halftime against the Chiefs might have been the best of his career, and the late fumble that ultimately ended the Jets’ chance at a win should not take away from his gutsy and courageous performance against the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Wilson has always had high-end NFL arm talent, good athleticism and flashes of accuracy when his mechanics were sound. But now, along with his improvements to his footwork, throwing mechanics and decision-making, it feels like he has regained the swagger we saw from him in college.

That boost in confidence is likely a result of several factors, including but not limited to the tutelage of Rodgers, Hackett’s re-designing of the playbook, a strong run game, and improved offensive line play. Wilson is playing under considerable pressure from a personal and professional standpoint in only his third NFL season, and in the last two weeks he has proven himself well.

What’s Holding Wilson and the Jets Back?

While it’s exciting to see the progress Wilson has made since my open letter to him last October, there is still work to be done.

Outside Lane Throws

His location on outside lane throws will need to improve, as his deep shots tend to drift out of bounds at times.

Finish

He also needs to continue to be disciplined as a decision-maker throughout all 60 minutes, as there were some forces into heavily covered areas in both of his past two games. The NFL is a 58+2 game. Starting quarterbacks must find a way to win late in the fourth quarter and on final drives. Wilson is likely to get those opportunities in the weeks to come.

Can’t Miss Open Receivers

If a player is wide-open and Wilson is able to complete a throwing motion, he cannot afford to miss him.

Against Kansas City, Wilson had a very impactful missed throw on third-and-3 on the Chiefs’ 13-yard line while trailing 17-2. Running back Michael Carter was wide-open in front of Wilson on a shallow burst route and would have easily walked in for a touchdown to make it a one-score game. Instead, Wilson ended up scrambling around the pocket before throwing an incompletion to Tyler Conklin in the end zone, which forced the Jets to settle for a field goal. The four-point swing on this play could have changed the trajectory of a game that New York ultimately lost by three.

New York Jets Zach Wilson

Ball Security

Additionally, I would like to see Wilson be more careful with his ball security while on the move.

When taking off to run — an area where he’s been productive throughout the course of his young career — Wilson often holds the ball low and away from his body with one hand, subjecting it to a blindside knockout. Protecting the ball and limiting turnovers is arguably the most important job of a quarterback, and this is an area his coaches are likely to emphasize again this week in practice. 

Living For Next Play

With the exception of ball security, the second-most important job of any NFL quarterback is to live for the next play.

Once the quarterback leaves the pocket and begins to head upfield, he needs to slide and not throw his body into defenders. This is “living for the next play.” 

Teammates always appreciate a quarterback’s courage to extend a play for extra yards, but those extra few yards are not worth the risk of injury. He needs to slide to avoid harm’s way, quickly get back into the huddle, get the call from coach Hackett, line his team up and move on to the next play.

With Wilson starting to show growth, he cannot afford an injury that stunts his progress. The 2-3 Jets cannot afford for their second quarterback to sustain an injury if they hope to compete in the AFC East.

What’s Next?

With 12 regular season games left to play, we will get a definitive answer on whether or not Wilson can continue to improve, or if these two positive games will end up being an outlier. Given his age and the development I’ve seen in his game from year to year, I believe that Wilson should keep getting better if his supporting cast continues to hold up their end of the bargain.

New York Jets Zach Wilson

Offensive Line Must Continue to Improve

It cannot be overstated how much the Jets’ offensive line play over the past few weeks has benefitted Wilson and the offense. His ability to stand in the pocket, read the coverage, work through his progressions and step into his throws has yielded good decisions and accurate passes. With right tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker slated to miss the rest of the season due to injury, I hope that the Jets can overcome his absence and continue to protect at a high level.

Defense and Run Game Must Perform at a High Level

With a talented defense (allowing the 10th-least yards per play in the NFL) and strong running game (third-most yards per carry in the league at 5.4), head coach Robert Saleh must emphasize the importance of complementary football and capitalize on a potent play action game while limiting turnovers. In the past two games, Wilson completed 11 of his 13 play-action passes (84.6 percent) for 93 yards, one touchdown and no turnovers.

Things do not get any easier for the Jets with the Philadelphia Eagles coming to town this week, but Sunday’s game will give Wilson and his team another opportunity to find out more about themselves against one of the NFL’s best teams.


Marc Trestman is a former NFL, CFL and college coach. After more than a decade as an offensive coordinator and a quarterback coach in the NFL, he coached in four Grey Cups in the CFL, winning three over seven years with Montreal and Toronto before becoming head coach of the Chicago Bears. Follow him on Twitter at @CoachTrestman.


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