Betting
3/28/23
6 min read
Fantasy Football Landing Spots: Quentin Johnston
TCU receiver Quentin Johnston (scouting report) is one of the more intriguing prospects available in the 2023 NFL Draft. Here, we've analyzed his top fantasy landing spots in order of betting market likelihood. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. For each team, Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds provide fantasy analysis for Johnston, along with all other affected receiving options. We also give an overall ranking (1-10) for how exciting this landing spot would be for fantasy football.
Implied percentage odds are included for all betting figures to provide additional context. All projected draft slots are courtesy of the NFL Mock Draft Database.
Quentin Johnston's Profile
Projected Average Draft Slot: 17th Overall
- He's a big-bodied (6-foot-3, 208 lbs) moderate-volume-downfield threat with elite after-the-catch ability.
- From a production standpoint, think smaller but more dynamic Michael Pittman.
Potential Landing Spots
Minnesota Vikings, Pick 23
Odds: +650, 13.3 percent
Rating: 9/10
- Gets a competent QB in Kirk Cousins.
- Johnston has a much different skill set than Justin Jefferson, who should require frequent double teams.
- Adam Thielen is with the Carolina Panthers, so Johnston could push KJ Osborn for the WR2 role early in the year.
- The issue is whether he's available this late in Round 1.
- He has a 1,000-yard rookie upside with the Minnesota Vikings.
- This is catastrophic for Osborn and would decrease T.J. Hockenson's outrageous volume.
New England Patriots, Pick 14
Odds: +700, 12.5 percent
Rating: 5/10
- New offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien likely improves the New England Patriots' disastrous offense.
- Mac Jones is not an ideal QB for a perimeter receiver like Johnston.
- It probably starts in 2-WR sets with JuJu-Smith Schuster and/or DeVante Parker.
- Johnston would have minimal target competition in a suboptimal offensive environment.
- This greatly hurts Smith-Schuster, who we currently project for high volume, given the depth chart.
- Parker is ruined for 2023, as Johnston compares closely to a younger Parker.
- Tyquan Thornton is likely a situational player (a la his rookie year) if they draft Johnston.
Baltimore Ravens, Pick 22
Odds: +750, 11.8 percent
Rating: 7/10
- Todd Monken is the Baltimore Ravens' new offensive coordinator. He has a long history of pass-heavy, high-depth of target offenses.
- Think Jameis Winston's Buccaneers with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for pass-game upside.
- We are extremely confident he gets starting reps opposite Rashod Bateman, given their depth chart.
- QB is a question mark. But, if Lamar Jackson returns, the upside is 4,000 efficient passing yards.
- It's a 7/10 if Jackson returns, and a 3/10 if a QB like Tyler Huntley is their Week 1 starter.
- Slight target share downgrade for Mark Andrews, and this could force Bateman into a WR3 role in an offense with a mobile QB.
Green Bay Packers, Pick 15
Odds: +950, 9.5 percent
Rating: 4/10
- Johnston fits the Green Bay Packers WR archetype well, as he's a big-bodied perimeter WR.
- Jordan Love is a QB downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, but at least the depth chart is wide-open after Christian Watson.
- There would be a worrisome amount of downfield overlap with Watson, who was a high-volume option last season.
- This would be a bad landing spot, as there's a chance he plays a part-time role behind Watson for much of 2023 with a below-average QB.
- Minimal impact on Watson, but would significantly hurt Romeo Doubs.
New York Giants, Pick 25
Odds: +1000, 9.1 percent
Rating: 8/10
- The New York Giants' WR depth chart consists mostly of slot-only players.
- Johnston shouldn't have too much trouble beating out Isaiah Hodgins for the starting X receiver role by October.
- Daniel Jones' rapport with Darius Slayton (46 receptions and 724 yards in 13 full games) demonstrates Johnston's upside in New York.
- Great landing spot for fantasy, as Darren Waller is the only other big-bodied pass-catcher, and he plays primarily in the slot.
- Hodgins should no longer be drafted, and Waller likely experiences a slight volume downgrade if Johnston lands here.
- Slayton becomes more of a rotational player.
Houston Texans, Pick 12
Odds: +1000, 9.1 percent
Rating: 8.5/10
- Would be paired with rookie QB C.J. Stroud (scouting report) or Bryce Young (scouting report), as the Houston Texans are frequently mocked to take a WR at No. 12 to pair with their QB at No. 2.
- Has a chance to emerge as their WR1 by midseason.
- Above-average landing spot, as Johnston would join a barren WR room with a talented but raw QB.
- Every WR on the Texans likely moves down on the depth chart, and Nico Collins suffers the most.
- We think this would be a strange pick by Houston (potential overdraft), as Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) and Jordan Addison (scouting report) look like better fits on paper for this offense.
Tennessee Titans, Pick 11
Odds: +1500, 6.3 percent
Rating: 6/10
- The Tennessee Titans have no receiving options outside WR Treylon Burks and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo.
- Ryan Tannehill is a professional QB, and you're hoping the Derrick Henry trade rumors come to fruition, as this currently projects to be an extremely low-volume passing offense again.
- The Titans have a bottom-tier offensive line, which negatively impacts the passing game, particularly on deep throws.
- Johnston to Tennessee hurts Burks and Okonkwo's volume.
Pipe Dream Landing Spots
Johnston is unlikely to be available by the time most of these teams pick, and these tantalizing landing spots total just 18.3% cumulative odds of happening in the betting markets. However, these would all represent elite fantasy landing spots for Johnston's year-one outlook.
- Buffalo Bills, Pick 27 (+2000, 4.8%)
- Los Angeles Chargers, Pick 21 (+2000, 4.8%)
- Dallas Cowboys, Pick 26 (+2000, 4.8%)
- Kansas City Chiefs, Pick 31 (+2500, 3.9%)
We hope you enjoyed our thoughts on Johnston's likely fantasy landing spots. We'll have more information about an NFL Draft live stream with a fantasy/betting/dynasty slant at a later date.
