Betting
3/27/23
5 min read
Fantasy Football Landing Spots: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) — also known as JSN — is one of the most promising prospects available in the 2023 NFL Draft. Here, we've analyzed his top fantasy landing spots in order of betting market likelihood. For each team, Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds provide the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and fantasy analysis for Smith-Njigba and all other affected receiving options. We also give an overall ranking (1-10) for how exciting this landing spot would be for fantasy football.
Implied percentage odds are included for all betting figures to provide additional context. All projected draft slots are courtesy of the NFL Mock Draft Database.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's Profile
Projected Average Draft Slot: 15th Overall
- Slot-only WR capable of heavy volume with elite short-area quickness and average long speed
- His ceiling is a Cooper Kupp or Amon-Ra St. Brown type, where you funnel the passing game through the slot
Potential Landing Spots
Houston Texans, Pick 12
Odds: +400, 20 percent
Rating: 9/10
- Walks right into the Houston Texans organization as the primary pass-catcher with 120 or more targets.
- This spot could help Smith-Njigba have a rookie season like St. Brown's only with more even production throughout the season (90 catches and 912 yards).
- Hurts the projected volume of Nico Collins and neutralizes Robert Woods.
Chicago Bears, Pick 9
Odds: +500, 16.7 percent
Rating: 2/10
- This landing spot doesn't make sense as the second-most likely destination — the Chicago Bears already have a complete receiver room with DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool vying for slot reps.
- We have concerns about QB competency, pass volume and target competition
- Smith-Njigba kicks Mooney and Claypool into rotational roles, and Moore's target share is unlikely to go much above 20 percent.
New England Patriots, Pick 14
Odds: +600, 14.3 percent
Rating: 6.5/10
- Smith-Njigba pairs well with Mac Jones' above-average accuracy in the short areas of the field.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster's presence doesn't preclude the New England Patriots from selecting Smith-Njiba, but it would still be a slightly odd draft selection.
- Would be a 10/10 landing spot if Smith-Schuster was not in New England, as Jones is a highly accurate QB disinterested in throwing more than seven yards down the field.
- All things considered, this fantasy landing spot is where Smith-Njiba takes Schuster's slot role down the stretch.
- This move greatly hurts Smith-Schuster, and there would be a target share downgrade for all other Patriots' skill players.
Green Bay Packers, Pick 15
Odds: +800, 11.1 percent
Rating: 8/10
- Christian Watson and Smith-Njigba have complementary skill sets, and this would be a 10/10 landing spot if Aaron Rodgers were still with the Green Bay Packers next season.
- Smith-Njigba has some potential to end the season as the team's WR1.
- Massive downgrade for Romeo Doubs, with a minimal impact on Watson.
Baltimore Ravens, Pick 22
Odds: +800, 11.1 percent
Rating: 6.5/10
- The hope is Rashod Bateman becomes a reduced version of Mike Evans while Smith-Nijgba takes on the Chris Godwin role in Todd Monken's pass-centric offense.
- You need either Lamar Jackson to remain with the Baltimore Ravens or the team to sign or trade for a lower-tier pocket passer to get moderately excited for fantasy.
- Smith-Njiba would be competing with Mark Andrews for looks.
- This would crush Bateman's volume projections and slightly hurt Andrews.
New York Giants, Pick 25
Odds: +900, 10 percent
Rating: 7.5/10
- Usurps the half dozen slot receivers currently on the New York Giants roster
- Smith-Njigba would be a great fit with Daniel Jones, but a healthy Sterling Shepard, Parris Campbell or Jamison Crowder could keep him to a 70% route share.
- Smith-Njigba makes every other slot receiver on this team un-draftable and would cut into Darren Waller's volume.
- If Jones stays at 50:1 to win MVP, that looks like a solid bet should Smith-Njigba land here.
Tennessee Titans, Pick 11
Odds: +1300, 7.1 percent
Rating: 7/10
- Pairs well with Treylon Burks in two wide receiver sets
- Volume concerns in this Tennessee Titans offense could temper some of our enthusiasm about this young and exciting WR room.
- Burks suffers some type of target decrease, and Chigoziem Okonkwo loses late-round TE appeal as the clear third option in this passing game.
Pipe Dream Landing Spots
Smith-Njigba is unlikely to be available by the time most of these teams pick, and these tantalizing landing spots total just 19.5 percent cumulative odds of happening in the betting markets. However, these would all represent elite fantasy landing spots for Smith-Njigba's year-one outlook.
- Minnesota Vikings, Pick 23 (+2000, 4.8%)
- Kansas City Chiefs, Pick 31 (+2000, 4.8%)
- Los Angeles Chargers, Pick 21 (+2500, 3.9%)
- Buffalo Bills, Pick 27 (+3000, 3.2%)
- New York Jets, Pick 13 (+3500, 2.8%)
We hope you enjoyed our thoughts on the likely Smith-Njigba fantasy landing spots. Also, we'll have more information about an NFL Draft live stream with a fantasy/betting/dynasty slant at a later date.
