Fantasy Football: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Great Choice for Seahawks
Fantasy 4/28/23
The 2023 NFL Draft was filled with talented wide receivers, and the Seattle Seahawks were fortunate enough to land Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall pick. With the team looking to bolster their passing game, Smith-Njigba is expected to have an immediate impact. This article will examine why Smith-Njigba is a perfect fit for the Seahawks and how his skills and abilities can help the team in Year 1.
Fantasy Breakdown
College Review
In Smith-Njigba’s lone season at Ohio State, he was one of the most dominant players in the country. He had 95 receptions, 1606 yards receiving and nine touchdowns. Only DeVonta Smith and Smith-Njigba had more than 1,600 yards in a season while running fewer than 400 routes. In addition, Smith-Njigba averaged 4.45 yards per route run, a 25.3 percent target per route run, and had 50.2 percent of his yards after the catch.
A player running more than 200 routes in a Power 5 conference and producing more than 2.5 yards per route run is impressive. However, adding the context of playing with two other first-round wide receivers of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, makes it special. To better understand his potential role, we can look closer at his route tree and yards per route run on each route. This data shows us where his strengths lie and how the Seahawks may utilize him in Year 1.
The numbers on the Route Tree will not add up to 100% because of the lack of video for some routes and screen passes not being on the route tree.
Smith-Njigba primarily ran routes from the slot position while at Ohio State. However, when we break down his route tree further, there are three routes where he showed high potential: Outs, Crossers, and Hooks. Smith-Njigba averaged more than 3 yards on these routes per route run, which is an impressive mark for a receiver considering these routes accounted for 46.6 percent of his total route tree.
The routes - Corner, Vertical and Post - typically produce high yards per route, and at the college level, it’s much easier to win deep than in the pros, and Smith-Njigba doesn’t profile to win that way. With his agility and elusiveness in open space, Smith-Njigba could be a reliable target for quick passes and yards after the catch, making him a valuable asset in the Seahawks' passing game and the perfect pair to DK Metcalf.
NFL Role
Shane Waldron, who previously served as the Los Angeles Rams' passing game coordinator from 2018 to 2020, is the current offensive mastermind for the Seattle Seahawks. During his tenure with the Rams, Waldron learned about targeting the slot position from Sean McVay, which proved a successful strategy. He worked closely with a talented trio of wide receivers, namely Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, all of whom had significant usage from the slot. Given Smith-Njigba's impressive college profile as a dominant slot receiver, it's likely that he'll earn a similar role in Waldron's offense. I comped Smith-Njigba similarly to Kupp, and from a rookie wide receiver perspective, I see similar production; Kupp finished the season with 62 receptions for 869 yards.
Season | Team | Player | Hook | Out | Cross |
2019 | Los Angeles Rams | Brandin Cooks | 13.98% | 10.60% | 24.58% |
2019 | Los Angeles Rams | Cooper Kupp | 25.34% | 15.01% | 15.98% |
2019 | Los Angeles Rams | Robert Woods | 16.43% | 19.64% | 17.32% |
2018 | Los Angeles Rams | Brandin Cooks | 13.01% | 11.04% | 23.60% |
2018 | Los Angeles Rams | Cooper Kupp | 25.11% | 8.97% | 14.80% |
2018 | Los Angeles Rams | Robert Woods | 20.42% | 12.41% | 21.48% |
Smith-Njigba had 46.6 percent of his route tree come from these three routes and was highly productive off of them. Smith-Njigba will have a mix of these wide receivers' usage, I don’t think he will be running as many out routes as Woods did, but I do believe how often he was utilized on Hooks pairs well. He won’t be utilized as the vertical threat of Cooks, but the crossing route usage should be there immediately, and Waldron has a blueprint for how to use him.
Tyler Lockett turns 31 in September, and he’s either stagnant or declining in his career. Smith-Njigba presents a seamless replacement for Lockett long-term and a complementary pairing with Metcalf for the future. In his first year, Smith-Njigba will gradually overtake Lockett in target share as the season progresses, eventually competing with Metcalf for looks. The combination of Metcalf and Lockett's deep threat abilities makes it easier for Smith-Njigba to work the middle of the field, as safeties are forced to respect the deep ball. Overall, Seattle made a fantastic selection in Smith-Njigba, as he provides the perfect pairing with Metcalf and a potential long-term solution for the Lockett role.
In Conclusion
Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver selected, and the slight draft day fall paired him with an offense that best suits his strengths. Lockett is on the wrong side of 30 and will be a good player for Smith-Njigba to learn from, and Metcalf is the perfect player to have opposite of Smith-Njigba. Shane Waldron should utilize Smith-Njigba in the slot and work that intermediate portion of the field.