Analysis
10/23/23
5 min read
Fantasy Football 2023: Offenses To Target Rest Of Season
Game environments matter in fantasy football. This article identifies two teams that help themselves with fantasy points and their opponents. This article will discuss two teams whose offensive struggles have bled over to their opponents, hurting the fantasy points scored on both ends.
Fantasy Friendly Teams
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed a league-high 336 passing yards per game, more than 50 yards higher than any other defense.
Couple this with two passing touchdowns allowed per game (third-highest) and an elite passer in Justin Herbert — seventh-highest passing yards per game — and the Chargers look like the premier shootout team.
The Chargers’ opponents run the third-most plays per game and average the second-most total yards.
- Five of six opposing quarterbacks scored at least 21 fantasy points, with Raiders rookie Aidan O’Connell the lone exception.
- The lead running back scored at least 13 fantasy points in all six games. Five of them reached 16 fantasy points.
- Fifteen receivers reached double-digit fantasy points through six games against the Chargers. A pass-catcher reached 28 PPR points in every other game.
The Chargers face the Bears, Jets, Lions, Packers and Ravens in their next five games, and fantasy managers can flex many of the auxiliary pass-catchers in those offenses.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa has reached 280 passing yards in four of seven games, and he’s tossed multiple touchdowns in four games. Through seven games, the Miami Dolphins have six running back fantasy performances of at least 21 PPR points and 10 running back games of double-digit fantasy points.
However, all the big plays hasten the pace of play for their largely successful opponents. Despite a relatively soft schedule through seven games, the Dolphins’ opponents are averaging the seventh-most total yards and seventh-most total offensive scores per game.
- Three quarterbacks have scored at least 20 fantasy points against the Dolphins through seven games. This happened despite the team facing Mac Jones, Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones and Bryce Young.
- Thirteen pass catchers have topped 11 fantasy points through seven games against Miami, with nine reaching 15 points. With opponents in catch-up mode, eight different receivers have reached 105 air yards against them.
The Dolphins face the Patriots, Chiefs, Raiders, Jets and Commanders in their next five games. Players like Kendrick Bourne, Rashee Rice, Michael Mayer and Jahan Dotson can all be started against the Dolphins’ defense, given the likely game environments.
Non-Fantasy Friendly Teams
New York Giants
The New York Giants have faced a murderer’s row of offenses in the Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks, Dolphins and Bills. Yet, the Giants are middle-of-the-road in plays allowed per game.
They have given up the third-most rushing yards per game, but rushing yards generally aren’t a good source of overall fantasy points. On a rushing play, only the runner gets credited; passing plays allow the quarterback and receiver to score fantasy points.
Quarterbacks score two fewer fantasy points per game against the Giants than their season average. The Giants’ anemic offense (12.1 points per game, last in the NFL) doesn’t force opponents’ hands to push the pace during the game.
The Giants’ opponents only score 2.2 offensive touchdowns per game, a roughly league-average number. Remember, their schedule has been tough through seven games.
- Two of seven quarterbacks have reached 20 fantasy points, while four of seven have scored below 14 points. Five of seven quarterbacks had less than 250 passing yards.
- Running backs have fared better, with three reaching 20 fantasy points. However, they have faced a gauntlet of backs. Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard and De’Von Achane are the three to cross this threshold.
- Just two pass-catchers have reached 10 fantasy points against the Giants in the past two weeks.
The Giants face the Jets, Raiders, Commanders, Patriots, Packers and Saints in six of their next seven games. Any auxiliary fantasy options should remain on your bench or waivers for those matchups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have averaged the sixth-fewest total yards of offense per game, but their solid defense has limited opponents throughout 2023. Opponents have been middle of the road in plays run per game, yet Tampa Bay has surrendered just six offensive touchdowns through six games. Only the Ravens have allowed fewer offensive touchdowns per game.
Generally, passing attempts correlate nicely with fantasy points allowed. While Buccaneers opponents have passed the eighth-most times per game, those quarterbacks are averaging the 19th-most fantasy points per contest.
- Only one of six quarterbacks has reached 20 fantasy points against Tampa Bay.
- Only one running back has reached 15 fantasy points against the Buccaneers.
- Only four pass-catchers have reached 65 yards against Tampa Bay.
- A pass-catcher has reached 15 fantasy points in only four of six games against them.
The Buccaneers face the Texans, Titans, Colts, Panthers, Falcons and Packers in six of their next eight games. Fantasy managers should consider benching many solid fantasy options on those offenses.
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