Analysis

5/22/23

5 min read

Fantasy Football 2023: Biggest QB Mistakes in Best Ball

By Josh Larky

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Drafters routinely make a massive quarterback mistake early in their best ball drafts, torpedoing their chances for success. Below, I outline this mistake, along with the concrete data to support this stance.

All fantasy point figures referenced in this article come from TruMedia. All ADPs referenced in this article are from Underdog Fantasy.

The Mistake

Drafters are often selecting two quarterbacks early in their fantasy draft. There have been multiple popular tweets on social media promoting this strategy, showcasing their early stacks. I’ve seen teams that began with A.J. Brown (ADP 9.0), Jalen Hurts (ADP 20), Tee Higgins (ADP 24) and Joe Burrow (ADP 41), where the team has two premium stacks (Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals) through four picks.

Don’t blindly abandon this strategy without unpacking the rationale first. It’s important to understand the data which puts the nail in the coffin for those who draft two quarterbacks early on. Learning about the why behind a decision will improve your critical thinking and help you spot mistakes like this on your own over time.

Fantasy Scoring Combinations

Because only one quarterback can start for your best ball team each week, taking the high weekly score from a pair of quarterbacks, then adding those fantasy point totals up gives us an understanding of how much this duo helped us in 2022 best ball.

The four quarterbacks used as benchmarks are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Hurts and Burrow — the four best 2022 fantasy quarterbacks when looking at either total fantasy points or fantasy points per game.

Fantasy points are calculated using traditional four-point passing touchdown scoring and only looking at Weeks 1-17.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

From the table below, we can see no fantasy quarterback added more than Hurts’ 94 fantasy points to Mahomes’ total. If you draft Mahomes and then follow that pick-up with another early-round quarterback, you are not adding many fantasy points to your best ball team. 

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Like Mahomes, no quarterback paired with Allen delivers 100 or more additional best ball fantasy points.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

No quarterback adds many fantasy points to Hurts, even though he missed multiple games due to injury.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

No quarterback added more than Justin Fields’ 92 fantasy points to Burrow’s best ball contributions last season.

Takeaways

Only one quarterback can enter your best ball lineup on any given week, and drafters often underestimate how consistent the top fantasy quarterbacks are.

When drafting a quarterback early, wait until the double-digit rounds to take your second one.

Early Quarterback Candidates for 2023

• Patrick Mahomes (ADP 19)
• Jalen Hurts (ADP 20)
• Josh Allen (ADP 21)
• Lamar Jackson (ADP 31)
• Justin Fields (ADP 39)
• Joe Burrow (ADP 41)

Put another way, if you select a quarterback early, ensure you have at least two running backs, five wide receivers and a tight end before taking an additional quarterback.

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.