Analysis
10/12/22
6 min read
Commanders vs. Bears DFS Thursday Night Showdown
In this week's Thursday night matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears, both teams are coming off last-possession turnovers that ended their comeback attempts. Their play styles couldn’t be any different. Commanders QB Carson Wentz is averaging 42 passing attempts per game this season, and Bears QB Justin Fields averages 17. These clashing playstyles make for an exciting showdown slate.
Vegas Line: Pickem
Over-Under: 38
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Commanders Offense vs. Bears Defense
- Bears coach Matt Eberflus is familiar with Wentz from his time as the Indianapolis Colts' defensive coordinator.
- Wentz is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, 8.1 air yards per attempt and a 4.8% pass touchdown rate.
- The Bears' defense has done a great job switching up their game plans each week. I think the Bears will play more man coverage and not blitz against this weaker offensive line.
- Against man coverage, Wentz averages 5.8 yards per attempt and 7.8 air yards per attempt.
- Commanders WR Terry McLaurin has yet to lead the team in single-game targets this season.
- WR Curtis Samuel has led the team in targets this year but is second in receiving yards due to his average depth of target.
- Samuel leads the team in target share vs. man coverage at 23.8%, with McLaurin ranked second at 19.1%.
- McLaurin does average more yards per route run vs. man coverage but gets a targeted less than Samuel.
- Without WR Jahan Dotson last week, Cam Sims ran 58.1% of the routes, while Dyami Brown ran a route on 37.2% of dropbacks.
- Without TE Logan Thomas, Cole Turner and John Bates split the tight end role. Neither were productive.
- However, Sims only drew a 5.3% target share, and Brown had more than 100 yards receiving and scored twice.
- In the running back room, we have three players getting touches. Brian Robinson will likely be the primary ball carrier.
- Robinson got the most carries after returning from injury. But J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson got the most passing game touches.
- The Bears have given up 80 or more yards rushing to four running backs this season.
READ MORE: Commanders vs. Bears The 33rd Team Scouting Report
Bears Offense vs. Commanders Defense
- The Commanders have given up 7.82 yards per attempt, 9.23 air yards per attempt and a 6.8% touchdown pass rate this season. These numbers are amongst the worst in the league.
- Bears QB Justin Fields averages 7.7 yards per attempt with 9.4 air yards per attempt and a 2.4% pass touchdown rate.
- These numbers are skewed because he only attempts 17 passes per game.
- Fields had more than 200 yards passing for the first time this year in Week 5 against the Vikings.
- Against Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, the Commanders played man on 48.8% of dropbacks and didn’t blitz. This matches the game plan I anticipate they'll utilize vs. Fields, who like Hurts, is a mobile quarterback.
- Against man coverage, Fields averages 12.3 air yards per attempt but gets sacked at a 25% rate.
- WR Darnell Mooney averages 16.7 air yards per target and leads the team with 2.2 yards per route run against man coverage.
- Fellow WR Equanimous St. Brown leads the team in target share vs. man coverage and is one of four players that ran over 65% of the routes this past weekend.
- TE Cole Kmet has seen more than a 10% target share for three straight weeks and is coming off his most productive game of the season.
- Dante Pettis is the only other player running more than 60% of the routes, with WRs Velus Jones and Ihmir Smith-Marsette running less than 40% of the routes.
- In the running back room, David Montgomery returned last weekend and took most of Khalil Herbert's workload.
- The Commanders' run defense has played well outside of last week's performance against the Titans and Derrick Henry, and I’d expect that to continue vs. the Bears.
Commanders vs. Bears Multiplier Pool
- Justin Fields
- Fields’ ability to run keeps him at the spot where he could be the multiplier. However, I want to get to these positional players more.
- Terry McLaurin
- McLaurin has disappointed, but he is Washington's best wide receiver and can beat bracketed coverage.
- Curtis Samuel
- Samuel gets plenty of work and usage into this offense. The only concern is his ability to get to 100 yards receiving and how Washington decides to treat the red zone with a running back like Robinson.
- Darnell Mooney
- I expect the Commanders to run a ton of man coverage, so Mooney will have opportunities to make plays down the field.
- Brian Robinson
- He took the lead rushing role in that backfield, and I do not expect that to change.
Commanders vs. Bears FLEX Pool
- QB, Carson Wentz
- The volume Wentz gets keeps him in the pool, but there is a good chance the Commanders are leading in this game and running the football late to run out the clock.
- TE, Cole Kmet
- Kmet is running a route on the second-most dropbacks. If there is any increase in his attempts, he becomes a viable flex option.
- WR, Equanimous St. Brown
- St.Brown averages 1.4 yards per route run vs. man coverage, and the Bears will see plenty of it.
- K, Cairo Santos
- With the low-point total and struggling offenses, I expect a lot of field goals in this one.
- K, Joey Slye
- The Commanders didn’t attempt a field goal the first three weeks but attempted two this past weekend. In his career, Slye averages 3.5 field goals made vs. Chicago.
- Bears D/ST
- Wentz gets sacked at a high rate, and we all know he turns over the ball.
- Commanders D/ST
- When Justin Fields has thrown the ball, he has thrown some interceptions, and the Commanders have a talented defensive line to get after him.
- TE, John Bates
- Without Logan Thomas, Bates and Cole Turner will split routes at tight end.
- WR, Cam Sims
- Sims was on the field more than Dyami Brown this past weekend, and I will go away from the popularity of Sims.
- TE, Cole Turner
- He is a punt play at $200 on DraftKings and ran routes on the same amount of dropbacks as Bates.
WATCH MORE: Dave Wannstedt Previews Thursday Night's Game.
