Analysis

12/28/22

14 min read

Matthew Hill's Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Matthew Hill

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If you made it to Championship Week chances are good you have few decisions to make regarding what is likely a stacked starting lineup. However, with this being the “last call” for a full slate of meaningful games, my Week 17 rankings will once again be a deep dive at each position for DFS enthusiasts.

This article features my complete rankings for the week, as well as blurbs highlighting players I have above or below consensus, according to how my rankings match up with the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).

My initial rankings are based on my first impressions of the players based on matchups and recent trends. Look for updated rankings and additional player blurbs throughout the week as new information presents itself.

Top 20 Quarterbacks

• I understand the matchup is great and his rushing ability gives Justin Fields a high weekly floor, but his ECR of QB3 is too high. Fields has only surpassed 200 yards passing twice this season, and Chicago may be limiting his rushing attempts down the stretch (less than nine carries in two of the past three games). He lands at QB6 in my early rankings.
• Jared Goff has finished as the QB4, QB4, QB17 and QB2 during the past four weeks and gets a plus matchup vs. Chicago in Week 17. His ECR of QB9 is several spots too low.
• In his first start of the year, Gardner Minshew went on the road against a tough Dallas defense and threw for 355 yards with three touchdowns, finishing as Week 16’s QB5. He now gets a home game against New Orleans and has an early consensus ranking of QB14. I have him as a low-end QB1 in a plus matchup. 
• Mike White returns from injury to take on Seattle in a potential shootout. In White’s first three starts, he finished QB6, QB7 and QB22.

Top 50 Running Backs

• Tyler Allgeier has logged double-digit carries in four straight games, including 17 and 18 rushes in the past two games. Even more encouraging for Allgeier’s floor and ceiling was his Week 16 passing game usage, bringing in four of five targets for 43 receiving yards. With a home game vs. Arizona on tap, Allgeier could be an unlikely Championship Week hero. 
• D’Onta Foreman paced Carolina in carries (21), Chuba Hubbard saw the most targets (nine), and Raheem Blackshear found the end zone on one of his three carries. While it was impressive all three turned in ceiling games the same week (Foreman RB5, Hubbard RB21, Blackshear RB31), I am not chasing last week’s career-best performances. As long as the Panthers remain committed to using all three backs one or more of them will be due for major regression at Tampa Bay. 
• Nick Chubb has four straight weeks of less than a dozen PPR points, which includes smash spots like at Houston and last weekend's arctic home game vs. New Orleans. Chubb continues to play a limited role in the passing attack (eight targets in the past five games) and has a near-even red zone carries split with Kareem Hunt (Chubb’s six carries to Hunt’s four) during the past three games. You love the rushing volume (45 carries past two weeks), but if he does not catch passes and if Hunt continues to be used near the goal line, Chubb will have difficulty hitting his ceiling at Washington. 
• With nothing to play for in Week 17, there is speculation Tennessee may opt to sit Derrick Henry to have him fully rested for the Week 18 game vs. Jacksonville for the AFC South title. I expect an increased opportunity for Hassan Haskins, the only other Titans running back to see the field in Week 16, and if Henry were to sit, Haskins would vault into my top 20.
• Latavius Murray providing consistent flex/RB3 production at age 32 has been one of the surprises of the fantasy season. With Chase Edmonds coming off IR and seeing a 40% snap share in his first game back, Murray can no longer be counted on as a high-floor option, especially as big underdogs at Kansas City where Edmonds may be asked to take on a more significant role.

Top 65 Wide Receivers

• Even with Detroit’s receiving corps getting healthy, Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to receive massive volume, having seen at least nine targets in every game since Week 12. St. Brown secured 10 of 11 targets for 119 yards when he played at Chicago in Week 10. 
• Keenan Allen has been PPR gold the past four weeks, turning his 51 targets into 37 receptions for 370 total yards, finishing as the WR12, WR9, WR19 and WR9. He led all Week 16 receivers with an insane 47% target share. He is a low-end WR1 with upside vs. the Rams. 
• Chris Godwin has received at least eight targets in 10 straight games, seeing double-digit targets in eight games this season. Despite Tampa Bay’s offensive inconsistencies, Godwin’s weekly floor has been elite. With a home game on tap against a Carolina defense that has been ripped by wide receivers all year, Godwin’s his a high ceiling to go with his elevated floor. 
• Brandin Cooks returned from a three-game absence to receive nine targets, securing four catches for 34 yards and a touchdown. Cooks should once again be a high-volume play vs. Jacksonville. 
• Adam Thielen has seen six, eight, four and five targets during his last four games. With Justin Jefferson putting up an MVP-caliber season, T.J. Hockenson heating up and KJ Osborn becoming more involved, Thielen has become a touchdown-or-bust player.
• Rashid Shaheed did not put up big numbers in horrible conditions, but he did lead New Orleans in targets (five) and appears to have settled into the Saints' No.1 wide receiver chair with Chris Olave out with a hamstring. If Olave sits again, Shaheed is a flex-worthy WR4 with upside. 
• Josh Palmer has seen his targets (six, five, three) and snap share (76%, 69%, 59%) steadily decline as the passing attack has consolidated between Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. Palmer is simply not seeing enough volume to trust in your lineup. 
• The Falcons' targets continue to be heavily consolidated between Drake London and Olamide Zaccheaus. While London has been heating up, seeing 23 targets the past two weeks, Zaccheus has deep flex value against Phoenix after his seven Week 16 targets, the second time in his past four games that he has had at least seven balls thrown his way. Both London and Zaccheus are undervalued as the WR29 and WR83 in the early ECR.

Top 22 Tight Ends

• Mark Andrews continues to be ranked as a top-four tight end each week despite not finishing as a high-end TE1 since Week 6. In the last three weeks, he has finished as the TE23, TE24 and TE20, including a two-catch, 17-yard performance vs. the same Steelers defense he gets this week. 
• During the past four weeks, Evan Engram has finished as fantasy’s TE3, TE1, TE17 and TE7. Engram secured six of 10 targets for 69 yards vs. Houston in Week 5. 
• Noah Fant has scored in back-to-back games while being limited to snap shares of 53% and 55%. Fant may see more snaps with Will Dissly headed to IR. 
• Tyler Conklin is back on the streaming radar with White under center and going against a Seahawks defense that has been gashed by tight ends all year. Seattle has allowed a tight end to reach double-digit fantasy points nine times this season.

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Matthew Hill

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Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.