Analysis

11/22/22

19 min read

Matthew Hill's Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Matthew Hill

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There is something about baseball that inspires people to write poetry. Warm summer nights, a 162-game season, frequent pauses in the action lending itself to conversations, unique and beautiful ballparks, and deep, rich history have led to the romanticizing of "America's Pastime."

Football is different. The violence, noise, extreme weather, and short schedule that gives heightened significance to every play makes the sport played on the gridiron the polar opposite of the one played at the ballpark. If baseball is poetry, football is a big-budget, action-packed blockbuster. Both take passion to create, and both can be high forms of art…but make no mistake about it, the way the public views the two sports is radically different.

The one exception is Thanksgiving. One day each year, football gets its turn to make the masses sentimental. The Super Bowl may be a cultural event, and Opening Day may be a football fanatics' Christmas, but Thanksgiving is its own unique and special day on the sports calendar. 

Thanksgiving can be wonderful. Taking a day to pause, reset, and give thanks for our blessings is good for the soul. Unfortunately, cliched prayers and speeches giving thanks for family, good health, and food on the table can be a day-long gut punch for families plagued by trauma, struggling with grief, dealing with sickness, or struggling to put "food on the table." Thanksgiving can be wonderful, but the reality is often not as pleasant as the happy images that flood our televisions and social media accounts. 

If you are reading this, it stands to reason you love football. And for that, we can give thanks. Thanksgiving football provides us background noise to help drown out some of the most toxic of Thanksgiving conversations and gives us a means of escape for those grieving, struggling with health, apart from family (for one of many reasons), or have been going through it for so long, a day of "thanksgiving" can be exhaustingly difficult. 

Whatever your situation is this Thanksgiving, I hope the day's three games bring you an added measure of escape, rest, and joy…and may your DFS lineups hit.

As always, this article will feature my complete rankings for the week, as well as blurbs for players I have above or below consensus, according to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). My initial rankings will include blurbs focused entirely on players from the three Thanksgiving games. Be sure to check back this weekend as I update my rankings and additional player blurbs.

Top 20 Quarterbacks

• Kirk Cousins' struggles against aggressive defenses, as well as his disappointing prime-time history, are well known. Despite this, Cousins has an early ECR of QB12 in the Thanksgiving finale against New England and their 36 sacks, second most in the NFL. With the day's lowest total and Justin Jefferson coming off his second-worst outing of the year amidst reports of a significant toe injury, I will largely be fading Cousins in DFS and have him several spots below consensus. 
• Daniel Jones is taking on a Dallas defense that is coming off a dominant performance against the Vikings and will be doing so with an injury-ridden receiver corps featuring Darius Slayton as his primary receiver. Add in his having only thrown for 196 with an interception and no touchdown in his home contest against Dallas in Week 3, and his consensus ranking of QB14 seems several spots too high to me. 
• I don't expect Jared Goff to recapture his early-season magic when he finished as a QB1 in two of the first four weeks (including the overall QB1 in Week 4). I do, however, expect him to outplay his QB24 consensus rankings in what is expected to be the week's highest-scoring game. Goff has not had the volume needed to put up high-end QB2 numbers in recent weeks, but he should have little trouble surpassing 30 pass attempts for the first time since Week 8 in a game where the Lions are going to need to put the ball in the air in order to keep pace with Buffalo. There are safer options on the 3-game slate, but at $5,200, Goff is worth some exposure for high-volume players.
• Taylor Heinicke has a consensus ranking of QB19 going against an Atlanta defense that, on the surface, seems to be improving, having allowed an average of 169 yards through the air the past three weeks. A closer look reveals that not a lot of difference between the Falcons defense of the past three games and the one that was getting ripped to the tune of 361 yards a game from Week 5-8…other than their opponents. In the past three weeks, Atlanta has taken on a banged-up Justin Herbert, P.J. Walker’s Panthers, and a run-first Bears offense. With Washington’s receiving corps getting healthy, including the recent returns of Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas gives Heinicke a sneaky-high ceiling.

Top 50 Running Backs

• D'Andre Swift was only on the field for 30% of offensive snaps in Week 11, conceding goal-line work to Jamaal Williams. Justin Jackson is carving out a role in the Lions' backfield, which is even more concerning for Swift. Jackson paced Detroit with 66 yards rushing on nine carries, bringing in his only target for an additional 11 yards. The Lions seem committed to expanding Jackson's role with him seeing his touches grow each of the past three games (4, 6, 10). If Swift is not seeing any work near the goal line and is mired in a three-way committee for early and passing-down work, there doesn't seem to be much of a ceiling in his current role. 
• Jamaal Williams seems to have been phased completely out of the passing game, not having seen a target since Week 8, but his Red Zone usage has been elite. Williams leads all running backs this season with 34 Red Zone rushes. Combine that with him having logged 57 carries over the past three games, and Williams brings a high floor/ceiling to the game with the week's highest expected point total. 
• Devin Singletary has been putting volume and goal-line concerns to rest with 34 touches the past two weeks, along with 14 carries coming in the red zone, resulting in three touchdowns. Singletary's ECR is several spots too low as the lead back against Detroit with a 54-point game total. At $5,700, he will be a popular play, but this is the type of good chalk that warrants significant exposure. 
• Obviously, there is no situation where you are not plugging Saquon Barkley into your regular season lineups. However, last week's shocking RB40 performance against Detroit, coming two games after an RB17 finish against Seattle, does have to be taken into account when deciding what to do with the slate's 2nd most expensive player. Only Justin Jefferson has a higher DK salary than Barkley's $8,000 tag (tied with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs). Deciding what to do with Barkley in a brutal matchup will be one of the key decisions for those playing the Thanksgiving slate.
• It admittedly doesn’t feel right to rank a rookie making his first start higher than proven backs like Nick Chubb and Travis Etienne, but Rachaad White checks all the high floor/smash ceiling boxes. White should receive significant volume, including the money passing/goal line touches in a plus matchup at Cleveland. I have him as my RB8 and that might be too low.
• James Conner has seen true workhorse usage, averaging 17 touches a game since Week 9, and gets a Chargers defense that has struggled against the run all year in a game featuring the slate's highest total. His ECR of RB15 seems several spots too low.
• Michael Carter saw 7.8 targets and averaged nearly 20 PPR points in the four games Mike White started last season. Carter’s ceiling may be a little capped, seeing a 52 and 48% snap share the past two weeks, but he should have a high weekly floor as the preferred passing-down back.
• Ranking Josh Jacobs as the RB5 for now in a smash spot at Seattle. Will obviously be following updates throughout the weekend. This should go without saying, but if you insist on paying up for him in DFS, be sure to have him in your flex spot as he doesn’t play until late and some of the more natural pivots are wide receivers (or Kelce).

Top 75 Wide Receivers

• I'm cheating a bit by including Stefon Diggs in an article highlighting players I have higher/lower than consensus. Diggs is my WR1 for the week, mirroring his ECR. I include Diggs because when it comes to the high-priced players in the Thanksgiving slate, Diggs will be my most rostered. Diggs has the highest floor of any non-QB in Thursday's player pool, having reached double-digit PPR points in every game this season. In a "get-right game" against Detroit's porous defense, Diggs has slate-breaking upside, in addition to his safe floor. 
• Gabe Davis has been on the field for at least 88% of the offensive snaps each of the past three weeks, seeing 21 targets during that span. His recent usage, combined with his matchup against a Lions defense giving up 262 yards a game through the air, has Davis the "boom/bust" receiver set up for a massive boom week.
• Assuming Josh Reynolds is out, Kalif Raymond is an inexpensive way to get a piece of the Bills/Lions game. Even with DJ Chark returning from a six-week absence, Raymond saw seven targets on an 85% snap share. Raymond's role seems secure for now as Chark continues to work his way back into the lineup (only played in 11 snaps last week), and at $4,100, he is worth a dart throw. 
• If you are really looking for salary relief, Isaiah Hodgins will likely serve as the Giants' No. 2 wide receiver with Wan'Dale Robinson out for the year and is priced at $3,000. Hodgins out-snapped Richie James and Kenny Golladay last week and should see his role grow in Week 12.
• If Heinicke were to have a big week, Terry McLaurin would stand to benefit most. McLaurin has seen a 32% target share with Heinicke and has broken 110 yards receiving in 2 of 4 games.
• Drake London has received a frustratingly low amount of volume this season after having seen 19 targets the first two weeks. With Kyle Pitts out and as 4-point road underdogs, Atlanta may have little choice but to feed London, making his WR39 too low.
• Matt Ryan’s return has not been the boon for Michael Pittman’s fantasy value that we all hoped. But a home game against a Steelers defense that has struggled slowing down opposing wide receivers may be what the Pittman needs to get back to his early season excellence, where he finished in the top 5 in two of his first five games.
• Mike Williams has already been declared out, giving Josh Palmer at least one more week of serving as a high-volume receiver in the Chargers offense. Palmer has greater than a 90% snap share each of the past four weeks, seeing between 8-12 targets each game. Look for his prominent role to continue in an expected shootout at Arizona.
• Chris Godwin has personified a high-floor, “safe” receiver, logging 6 or 7 receptions each of the past seven weeks. Godwin finally found the end zone last week en route to a WR14 finish. More positive regression should be on tap this year for the receiver, who has seen at least one red zone target every game but one this season.
• Marquise Brown is expected to see limited snaps in his first game back from injury. With Rondale Moore out and Greg Dortch questionable, Brown may be asked to play more snaps than was the plan early this week. His ECR of WR54 seems extremely conservative. 

Top 20 Tight Ends

• Dawson Knox is coming off a Week 11 TE6 finish, has seen 13 targets the past two games, and gets a Detroit defense getting ripped by tight ends. He is several spots too low as the consensus TE9, and at $3,800, he is a great way to get exposure to the Bills' offense. 
• If you are hesitant to roster Isaiah Hodgins, New York features another of the more interesting salary savers in Lawrence Cager. Cager has logged a 67% and 71% snap share in the past two weeks and will once again serve as the Giants' primary tight end on Thursday.
• David Njoku is ready to go for Sunday and is expected to see an increased role after playing only 35% of the snaps in his return from a two-week absence. Njoku was the TE4 prior to Week 7. If sees anything close to his normal workload, he could smash his ECR of TE13.
• Trey McBride has seen an 87% and 76% snap share in the past two games, running 58 routes. He gets a big QB upgrade and goes against a Chargers team allowing the 3rd most yards to tight ends this season in a likely shootout. His ECR of TE24 is far too low.

WATCH MORE: Previewing Bills vs. Lions Week 12

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Matthew Hill

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Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.