Analysis
11/7/22
6 min read
Ravens vs. Saints DFS Monday Night Showdown
The NFL is about having multiple play-making pass catchers, and the Baltimore Ravens are without WR Rashod Bateman and TE Mark Andrews for this week's Monday night match-up with the New Orleans Saints. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is as dynamic of an athlete as they come, but without those two, he will struggle to move the ball efficiently. Ravens WR DeSean Jackson is making his debut after practicing for a few weeks, and it at least adds a deep threat to their offense.
The  Saints are another team that cannot manage to have their star players healthy, as WR Michael Thomas and CB Marshon Lattimore are not playing in this matchup. The Saints are coming off their most dominant win of the year over the Raiders, but this Ravens defense just added Roquan Smith and has figured out how to defend the deep ball after the early season mistakes.
Vegas Line: Ravens -3
Over Under: 48.5
Notable Injuries:
Ravens:
Out: RB J.K. Dobbins, WR Rashod Bateman, DT Michael Pierce, CB Kyle Fuller, S Marcus Williams, TE Mark Andrews
Doubtful: RB Gus Edwards.
Questionable: WR Demarcus Robinson, CB Marcus Peters
Saints:
Out: RB Mark Ingram, WR Michael Thomas, LT Trevor Penning, CB Marshon Lattimore, CB PJ Williams, CB Bradley Roby
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Ravens Offense vs. Saints Defense
- Jackson averages 6.9 yards per attempt, 8.5 air yards per attempt and a 6.4% pass touchdown rate.
- Jackson faces man coverage at a 42.6% rate and is blitzed at a 39.1% rate.
- The Saints have only blitzed at more than 15% once this season, and it was the only game they played a heavy amount of man coverage.
- When the Saints played Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, they blitzed on 15.6% of dropbacks and played man at a 32.4% rate.
- Jackson continues to get plenty of designed carries. Without their top-two pass catchers, they need to revert to this style of play and rely on their defense to win games.
- WRs Devin Duvernay, Demarcus Robinson and James Proche will lead their group, while TEs Isaiah Likely and Josh Oliver lead theirs.Â
- Duvernay, Robinson and Likely will compete for the majority of targets.
- Proche, Oliver, and DeSean Jackson will compete for what’s left.
- Likely is my bet to lead the team in targets, as he got six receptions for 77 yards and found the end zone after Andrews was injuried.
- Duvernay will see plenty of involvement, and they will scheme him up touches in every game.
- Robinson is a player I am hesitant about playing because DeSean Jackson will impact his deep targets.
- The Saints' run defense has allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season.
- They allowed Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson and then Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey to rush for more than 100 yards.
- They allowed Cardinals RB Eno Benjamin and Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker to have more than 80 yards on under 15 attempts.
- Without Gus Edwards, Baltimore's running back room relies on Kenyan Drake, Justice Hill and Mike Davis.
- Drake averages 5.1 yards per carry, but inside the red zone has six yards on seven attempts.
- Hill averages 6.4 yards per carry on 28 attempts.
- Davis has only had eight carries this season, but three have been in the red zone.
- Lamar Jackson has the most carries on this team and is the best player to have running the ball.
Saints Offense vs. Ravens Defense
- Saints QB Andy Dalton averages 7.3 yards per attempt, 7.9 air yards per attempt and a 5.6 pass touchdown rate.
- The Ravens blitz on around 25% of plays and play zone coverage at a 70% rate.
- Against zone coverage, Dalton averages 6.6 yards per attempt, 7.4 air yards per attempt and a 1.7% pass touchdown rate.
- Dalton ranks below the league average against zone coverage.
- Against zone coverage, with Dalton at QB, WR Chris Olave and RB Alvin Kamara have a 44% target share.Â
- Olave averages 2.4 yards per route run and gets targeted on 28% of his routes.
- Last week, only Olave and Kamara ran more than 70% of the routes.
- WRs Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway and Rashid Saheed were the only other wide receivers that ran routes.
- Smith averages 1.8 yards per route run and gets targeted on 16% of his routes.
- Smith has been much better against man coverage than zone, as he holds a 5% target share vs. zone this season.
- Callaway averages 0.8 yards per route run and gets targeted on 17% of his routes.
- Callaway hasn’t been effective vs. man or zone this season.
- Rasheed averages 3.8 yards per route run and gets targeted on 21% of his routes.
- Rasheed hasn’t seen man coverage but has been successfully targeted deep down the field against zone coverage.
- Juwan Johnson leads the tight end room, with Adam Trautman and Taysom Hill also seeing snaps.
- The Ravens are one of the top teams defending tight ends this season.
- Kamara will be the lead back in the offense, with Hill seeing plenty of work with no Mark Ingram.
- RB Dwayne Washington will be the direct backup to Kamara in this matchup.
- The Ravens haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher this season, but only one running back has had more than 20 carries against them.
Overall Thoughts
The Ravens' offense lost their two best players, and that loss will show up in this matchup with the Saints. Likely is a talented player, but expecting a rookie tight end to take the lead role at wide receiver is difficult. Teams have attacked the Saints on the perimeter, leading me to look at Robinson and DeSean Jackson as the two pass catchers to take a chance on. I expect the Ravens to come out pass heavy to test the Saints' secondary, knowing they can always flip to a run-heavy offense. This is a spot in a showdown slate where you can fade Lamar Jackson, who is extremely popular.
The Saints' offense under Dalton hasn’t been too exciting, but we know he gets the ball to Kamara and Olave plenty. Taysom Hill will continue being a threat to everybody in the running game and steal red zone touchdowns. Rasheed is too explosive to continue not being on the field, but the Saints are committed to giving him a low snap share. Smith dominates the slot, and teams have targeted that position plenty against the Ravens.
Ravens vs. Saints Multiplier Pool
- RB Alvin Kamara
- WR Chris Olave
- TE Isaiah Likely (Price is too low)
- WR Demarcus Robinson
Ravens vs. Saints FLEX Pool
- QB Lamar Jackson
- QB Andy Dalton
- RB Kenyan Drake
- WR Devin Duvernay
- QB Taysom Hill
- WR Rashid Shaheed
- D/ST Ravens
- K Justin Tucker
- K Will Lutz
- D/ST Saints
- TE Josh Oliver
- WR DeSean Jackson
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