The Raiders, fresh off their first win of the season, travel to Kansas City as seven-point underdogs. Last season, the Raiders were the team the Chiefs looked their best against, scoring over 40 points in both matchups. But with this new coaching staff, I don’t see that happening. Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham held the Chiefs to just 20 points with the Giants’ defense in 2021, and this Raiders group has a lot more talent on the defensive line.
Vegas Line: Chiefs -7
Over Under: 51.5
Raiders: TE Foster Moreau (Questionable), LB Jayon Brown (Out), CB Sam Webb (Questionable)
Chiefs: G Trey Smith (Questionable), WR Juju Smith-Schuster (Questionable), K Harrison Butker (Out)
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Raiders Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
- The Chiefs are continuing to run a zone-heavy scheme and not blitzing as much as they did last season.
- Against zone coverage, Derek Carr is averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, 8.1 air yards per attempt, and has a 1.8% touchdown pass rate.
- On the season, Davante Adams has a 31.3% target share and gets targeted on 27.3% of his routes vs. zone coverage.
- Hunter Renfrow hasn’t played much, so his season target share is low. But he has been targeted on 22.8% of his routes vs. zone coverage.
- The player that will take a backseat in terms of production will be Mack Hollins, who has been targeted more frequently vs. man coverage.
- Darren Waller hasn’t had a strong start to the season, but with Renfrow back, Waller won’t have as much attention paid to him across the middle of the field.
- Bigger-bodied wide receivers have been an issue for the Chiefs, as Mike Evans and Mike Williams were both able to get over 100 yards receiving and score a touchdown.
- Josh Jacobs is coming off his best game of the season with 144 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns.
- The Chiefs’ run defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher so far this season and are only allowing 3.2 yards per carry.
- Brandon Bolden is the only running back threatening Jacobs receiving work, and last weekend merely saw 12.8% of the routes from the backfield.
Watch More: Brandon Jacobs Breaks Down Giants’ Hot Start
Chiefs Offense vs. Raiders Defense
- This Raiders defense will play two safeties deep on a majority of snaps and prevent Patrick Mahomes from throwing it down the field.
- Mahomes is averaging 7.6 yards and air yards per attempt, with a 7.5% pass touchdown rate.
- Mahomes’ only game over 300 yards passing has been when he was blitzed and when he got man coverage at a high rate.
- Last weekend against Russell Wilson, the Raiders played zone coverage on 90% of plays, and I expect a similar game plan for this matchup.
- Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster lead the team with the same number of targets vs. zone coverage.
- Twelve different players ran routes for the Chiefs this past weekend, with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling being the only players running over 70% of the routes.
- The Raiders haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiving or rushing to a single player this season.
- The Chiefs’ backfield is a three-headed monster.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the lead back, and see’s work as a rusher and a pass catcher.
- Isaiah Pacheco sees a high number of carries when the team is leading but does not see many routes.
- Jerick McKinnon does not see many carries but has an impact in the passing game.
- The Raiders are one of five teams to give up over 200 yards receiving to RBs this season, while only giving up 3.9 yards per carry.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Multiplier Pool
- Davante Adams
- Adams will be the mismatch for this Raiders offense, and it will be up to Carr to get it to him in a timely fashion.
- Travis Kelce
- Kelce has had a 20% target share each week this year, and the Raiders did allow Zach Ertz and Gerald Everett to have productive games.
- Patrick Graham was able to scheme up a defense that held Kelce to just four catches for 27 yards in last year’s matchup with the Giants.
- Hunter Renfrow
- The Chiefs have given up 1.24 yards per route run to slot players this season, and that is where Renfrow lines up on 90% of snaps.
- Juju Smith-Schuster
- The Raiders have given up 1.95 yards per route run to players aligned in the slot this season, and Smith-Schuster has seen plenty of work in the slot.
Raiders vs. Chiefs FLEX Pool
- Patrick Mahomes
- In his career, Mahomes averages over 300 yards passing against the Raiders and has led the offense to over 30 points in five straight matchups.
- Derek Carr
- We should see a negative game script from Carr in this one, which will lead to a lot of volume as a passer.
- Josh Jacobs
- The best defense for the Raiders will be attempting to keep Mahomes off the field, and in lineups where I am taking Jacobs, I want to pair that with a multiplier player from the Chiefs’ offense.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Edwards-Helaire has been a touchdown machine to begin the season, and as long as Mahomes is 100% healthy, he will have plenty of opportunities to score.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- The Raiders have given up the 8th most receptions of over 20 air yards this season, and Valdes-Scantling has three targets of over 20 air yards this year.
- Chiefs DST
- The Raiders’ interior offensive line has not been good to begin the year, and Chris Jones is a game-wrecker inside. Renfrow does return to give Carr another player to target quickly, but I do not believe it will matter.
- Matthew Wright
- Wright was trusted to kick a 44-yard field goal last weekend, and I don’t see why they wouldn’t trust him near that distance this weekend.
- Daniel Carlson
- Carlson is one of the best kickers in the NFL and has been perfect so far this season.
- Jerick McKinnon
- McKinnon sees plenty of routes, and with the attention, there will be to Kelce.
- Skyy Moore
- The injury news to Smith-Schuster late in the week could lead to more play time with Moore, who has shown flashes when given a chance.
- Brandon Bolden
- Bolden will only see work in the passing game, and he will be a viable option in a negative game script.
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