Analysis

10/22/22

7 min read

NFL Week 7 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Texans vs. Raiders

By Ryan Reynolds

Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Houston Texans (1-3-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)

Opening Spread: Raiders -7.

Opening Game Total: 44.

Totals: Raiders (25.5), Texans (18.5)

Weather: Dome.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Raiders -7.
  • This line has moved slightly down to Raiders -6.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Raiders -7.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Raiders -7.
  • This total opened at 44 points.
  • This total has moved to 45.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Raiders: Out: TE Darren Waller, CB Anthony Averett, CB Nate Hobbs. Questionable: WR Hunter Renfrow, WR Mack Hollins, LB Jayon Brown.

Texans: Out: Edge Jonathan Greenard. Questionable: WR Chris Moore, TE Brevin Jordan.

The Raiders Offense vs. the Texans Defense

This is a trench matchup between two below-average lines. There’s no significant trench advantage for either side here.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Raiders are 2-3 against the spread this season.
  • The Raiders are 3-1-1 on overs this season.
  • Derek Carr is 63-67-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Derek Carr is 69-58-5 on overs in his career.
  • Josh McDaniels is 15-18 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Josh McDaniels is 17-15-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Raiders Offense

  • The Raiders are scoring 25 points per game, good for sixth in the league.
  • Las Vegas is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, among running backs, Josh Jacobs is third in yards rushing per game and tenth in yards receiving per game this season.
  • Davante Adams is fifth in the league in target share (31.2%) and air yards share (40.9%).
  • After returning from injury, Hunter Renfrow only had four targets against the Chiefs last week.
  • With Darren Waller out, Foster Moreau takes over at tight end. He’s a viable streaming option this week in deep leagues.

Texans Defense

  • The Texans have allowed 19.8 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Texans are allowing the most yards rushing per game and the eighth most receiving yards per game to running backs.
  • Houston is giving up the 14th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
  • The Texans are allowing the 13th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
  • The Texans are allowing the fourth most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot. 

The Texans Offense vs. the Raiders Defense

I have the Texans offensive line ranked as the 12th best. I have the Raiders front ranked in that same general area. Houston has an elite left tackle in Laremy Tunsil, which puts them in a great position to mitigate the Raiders' premium edge duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby. I’m treating this as a relative draw in the trenches.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Texans are 3-1-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Texans are 2-3 on overs this season.
  • Davis Mills is 9-8-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Davis Mills is 9-9 on overs in his career.
  • Lovie Smith is 85-87-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Lovie Smith is 84-94-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Texans Offense

  • The Texans are scoring 17.2 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
  • Houston is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and 22nd in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Texans rookie running back Dameon Pierce is fifth among running backs in yards rushing per game.
  • Brandin Cooks has a 25.2% target share and a 30.1% air yards share. Cooks has a range of six to 12 targets through the Texans’ first five games.
  • Nico Collins has a 16.6% target share and a 30.4% air yards share.
  • Per TruMedia, Chris Moore leads the Texans in snaps out of the slot with 109.
  • Brandin Cooks has played 180 snaps on the perimeter and 66 in the slot.
  • O.J. Howard leads the Texans with 114 snaps as an inline tight end. 

Raiders Defense

  • The Raiders have allowed 26 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 26th most yards rushing per game and the sixth most yards receiving per game to running backs this year.
  • Las Vegas has given up the tenth most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
  • Las Vegas has given up the second most PPR points per game to wide receivers in the slot this season.
  • The Raiders have allowed the 16th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
  • The Raiders have allowed the third most PPR points per game to inline tight ends this year.

This is What You’re Betting On in Texans vs. Raiders

A bet on the Raiders is a bet on a 1-4 team that is better than their record indicates. Every game the Raiders have lost has been a one-score game against a team with a winning record last season. Even though Vegas is coming off their bye, they will still be without their dynamic tight end, Darren Waller. Hunter Renfrow remains on the injury report as well. Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, and Davante Adams are enough to get the job done on offense, but the Raiders are driven by their offense and will not be entering this game at full strength.

Vegas is currently giving up the league's 28th most points per game. My concern with a bet on the Raiders in this spot is they are not at full strength on offense, and their defense is the sort of unit that can allow a team like Houston to hang around all game. In fact, while the Raiders are the better team, I don’t view this as a slam-dunk win for them.

A bet on the Texans is a bet on a scrappy, high-effort team that has been a tougher than expected out in a number of games over the past two seasons. Just like the Raiders, the Texans are also coming off their bye this week. My favorite aspect of a Texans bet is that their offensive line is anchored by elite left tackle Laremy Tunsil. That gives Houston the ability to provide right tackle Tytus Howard with help as needed. The Texans offensive line is in a good position to mitigate the strength of the Raiders defense, which is their edge duo.

Houston hasn’t had a real spike game on offense yet this season, and I think they are in a good position to exceed expectations against the Raiders here. My biggest concern with a Texans bet is that the Raiders offense comes out hot while Houston’s continues to fall below expectations despite coming off their bye. 

Texans vs. Raiders Pool Picks

Awards Market Ramifications: Dameon Pierce is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Texans in at least one of my large field winner pools as a differentiator this week. I will be lower than the consensus on this game in confidence pools. For example, I will have the Chargers and Bengals ranked ahead of the Raiders in that format.

Spread Pool: I will take the Texans with the points in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.

Survivor Pool: The Raiders are not an unreasonable choice in survivor pools this week. However, I think I will go in a different direction on this slate. If you’re still alive in your survivor pool, be sure to take a look ahead.\

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 21-9

Props 2022: 19-12

 

WATCH MORE: Raiders Need to Clean Up Small Mistakes

 

 

 

Tags: Betting, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders See More

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

RELATED