Analysis
10/22/22
7 min read
NFL Week 7 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Jets vs. Broncos
New York Jets (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4)
Opening Spread: Broncos -3.
Opening Game Total: 42.5.
Team Totals: Broncos (22.75), Jets (19.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Broncos -3.
- This line moved all the way down to Broncos -.5, but it’s since bounced back up to Broncos -1.5 as of Friday evening.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Broncos -1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Broncos -1.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 39.5.
Notable Injuries
Broncos: IR: RB Javonte Williams, LT Garrett Bolles, Edge Randy Gregory, CB Ronald Darby. Questionable: QB Russell Wilson, RG Quinn Meinerz, DL Dre’Mont Jones, DT D.J. Jones, DL DeShawn Williams, LB Josey Jewell, CB K’Waun Williams.
Jets: IR: OT Mekhi Becton, OT George Fant. Out: WR Elijah Moore. Questionable: WR Braxton Berrios, LT Duane Brown, Edge Jermaine Johnson, LB Quincy Williams.
The Broncos Offense vs. the Jets Defense
Denver’s offensive line is a slightly below-average unit. After a slow start, the Jets front is playing like a top-ten caliber unit. The Jets defensive front has an edge in this contest, though Russell Wilson’s evasion abilities are an asset for Denver’s ability to manage pressure.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Broncos are 2-4 against the spread this season.
- The Broncos are 1-5 on overs this season.
- Russell Wilson is 85-73-6 against the spread in his career.
- Russell Wilson is 76-87-1 on overs in his career.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 2-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 1-5 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Broncos Offense
- The Broncos are scoring 15.2 points per game, which is last in the league.
- Denver is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
- Russell Wilson still shows flashes of the player he’s always been, but he’s been much less consistent this season.
- Denver’s backfield deployments are a mess, as Latavius Murray ran ahead of Melvin Gordon last Monday night. After the game, Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett said that Gordon is still the starter. Mike Boone is mixing in some in the passing game.
- Per the Edge, Courtland Sutton leads the Broncos in target share (25.9%) and air yards share (38.5%).
- Jerry Jeudy is second on the team in target share (19%), and air yards share (26%).
- After returning from injury, rookie tight end Greg Dulcich has a 12% target share and a 12.6% air yards share.
Jets Defense
- The Jets have allowed 21.3 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 19th most yards rushing per game and the 20th most yards receiving per game to running backs this year.
- New York has given up the 25th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets have allowed the eighth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Jets Offense vs. the Broncos Defense
The Jets have done a tremendous job putting together stable offensive line play despite their injuries at offensive tackle this season. I have the Jets offensive line right in the middle of the pack. Without Edge Randy Gregory, I’ve moved Denver’s top-ten caliber front into the middle of the pack. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 4-2 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 3-3 on overs this season.
- Zach Wilson is 8-8 against the spread in his career.
- Zach Wilson is 9-7 on overs in his career.
- Robert Saleh is 10-13 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Robert Saleh is 13-10 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jets Offense
- The Jets are scoring 23.8 points per game, good for 11th in the league.
- New York is 15th in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing.
- Since Zach Wilson has returned to action, the Jets have been a more run-heavy offense than they were under Joe Flacco. Wilson has had 21 and 18 passing attempts over the last two games.
- Per the Edge, Breece Hall has 391 yards rushing and 218 yards receiving this season.
- Rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson leads the Jets with a 22.3% target share, and he’s second on the team with a 24.3% air yards share.
- Corey Davis has a range of four to six targets in the three games since Zach Wilson returned.
- Tyler Conklin’s high-end role through the first three games has fallen off a cliff since Wilson’s return.
Broncos Defense
- The Broncos have allowed 16.5 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Broncos have allowed the 15th most yards rushing per game and the 12th most yards receiving per game to running backs this year.
- Denver has given up the third-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
- The Broncos have allowed the 17th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
This is What You’re Betting On in Jets vs. Broncos
A bet on the Broncos is a bet on, arguably, the most disappointing team in the league through the first six weeks. As Josh Larky and I discussed on our Tuesday Waiver Wire show, at some point this season, Russell Wilson will have a spike week that looks a lot like Matt Ryan’s explosion in Week 5. You can’t bank on that happening this week if you’re betting on Denver, but it’s in the range of outcomes. My favorite aspect of a Denver bet is the Jets are in a classic letdown spot after their big win in Green Bay last week, while 2-4 Denver is in desperate need of a win.
Denver lost a game to the Raiders by nine points. They’ve lost their other three games by seven total points. Denver is capable of winning a low-scoring contest against the Jets here. Apart from Denver’s struggling offense and questionable coaching staff, I have two core concerns with a Broncos bet. The first is that they are coming off back-to-back overtime games, which were both losses. Denver is banged up, and they’ve played an extra two quarters of professional football over the past two weeks. The second is that the Jets front four has the potential to derail this game, much like they did against Green Bay last week.
A bet on the Jets is a bet on a young, talented roster that is 4-2 despite a brutal opening schedule stretch. The Jets have been more run-heavy since Zach Wilson has returned to action. If you’re betting on the Jets, you are betting on a grind-it-out offensive effort while their front four dominates Denver in the trenches on the other side of the ball. A bet on the Jets is, effectively, a bet against Russell Wilson’s struggling offense. My biggest concern with a bet on the Jets is that this is their second road game in a row, and they are in a classic letdown spot after their big win against Aaron Rodgers’ Packers last week. My second most significant concern is that if Denver jumps out to a lead, Zach Wilson will have to play from behind against one of the league’s best pass defenses.
Jets vs. Broncos Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Breece Hall is the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will have exposure to both of these teams in winner pools this week. Similar to Titans vs. Colts, I’ll be ranking this game as far down as I realistically can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m not going to bet Denver directly, but I will take them in one of my secondary ATS tournament entries.
Survivor Pool: This game should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12
WATCH MORE: Former NFL Head Coaches Marvin Lewis and Mike Zimmer discuss Jets vs. Broncos and how Patrick Surtain II could be the next Deion Sanders.
