Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Opening Spread: Titans -2.5
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Titans (22.5), Colts (20)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Titans -2.5.
- This line remains at Titans -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Titans -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Titans -2.5.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total remains at 42.5 points.
Titans: IR: Treylon Burks, LT Taylor Lewan, Edge Harold Landry III; Out: FB Tory Carter, RG Nate Davis, LB Zach Cunningham; Questionable: WR Kyle Philips
Colts: Out: Edge Kwity Paye, LB Shaquille Leonard
The Titans Offense vs. Colts Defense
With left tackle Taylor Lewan on injured reserve and right guard Nate Davis ruled out for this contest, the Titans have a bottom-tier offensive line. From a macro sense the Colts’ front four is an average to below average unit that is down second-year Edge Kwity Paye. Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and edge Yannick Ngakoue have individual matchup advantages in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 3-2 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 2-3 on overs this season.
- Ryan Tannehill is 68-67-3 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan Tannehill is 74-62-2 on overs in his career.
- Mike Vrabel is 36-33-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Vrabel is 40-29-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Titans are scoring 19.2 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Tennessee is 27th in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs, Derrick Henry is seventh in yards rushing per game and 13th in yards receiving per game.
- Robert Woods leads the Titans with a 23% target share and a 28.4% air yards share.
- Austin Hooper has an 8.2% target share to Geoff Swaim’s 6.6% target share.
- The Colts have allowed 20.2 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the 12th-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-most yards receiving per game to running backs.
- Indianapolis has allowed the fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
- The Colts have given up the 12th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
- The Colts have given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the seventh-most to tight ends in the slot.
The Colts Offense vs. Titans Defense
The Colts’ disappointing offensive line has undergone some musical chairs to start this season. This group played its first strong game of the year last week against Jacksonville’s athletic front. That performance gives me some optimism that better days are ahead for the Colts’ line. That said, the Titans have one of the best interior duos in the league, and they’ll be getting Bud Dupree back on the edge. Two weeks ago, I’d give the Titans a significant edge in the trenches against an underachieving Colts’ offensive line. After last week, it’s at least possible that the Colts have closed the gap some in this positional group battle.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Colts are 3-3 against the spread this season.
- The Colts are 1-5 on overs this season.
- Matt Ryan is 111-113-4 against the spread in his career.
- Matt Ryan is 102-123-3 on overs in his career.
- Frank Reich is 36-32-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Frank Reich is 35-36 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Colts are scoring 17.2 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Indianapolis is third in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Jonathan Taylor has missed the last two games. In those that he’s played he had at least 20 carries in three-of-four contests. The contest that he didn’t reach 20 carries, the Colts were shut out by the Jaguars in Week 2.
- Michael Pittman has a range of six to 16 targets in the five games that he’s played this season. The contest where he had six came against the Titans.
- Alec Pierce has a range of six to nine targets over the last three games, which started with six against the Titans.
- Parris Campbell had a usage spike against the Jaguars last week with 11 targets. Before that contest, Campbell ranged between two and four targets in each game.
- Per TruMedia, Michael Pittman leads the Colts with 278 snaps on the perimeter, with an additional 77 from the slot.
- Alec Pierce has played 188 snaps on the perimeter and just 11 from the slot.
- Mo Alie-Cox leads the Colts with 163 snaps as an in-line tight end.
- The Titans have allowed 23.6 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the 21st-most yards rushing per game and the 18th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tennessee has given up the second-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Tennessee has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers and the eighth-most to those in the slot.
- The Titans have given up the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Titans have given up the most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Titans vs. Colts
A bet on the Titans is a bet on a tough, physical football team that makes a regular habit of exceeding expectations. The Titans are coming off their bye, but they’re actually more banged up than the Colts are. If you’re betting on Tennessee, you are betting on the Titans continuing to play winning football despite the numerous impact players they’ve lost due to injury over the last two seasons. The Titans have beaten the Colts in each of their last three matchups, including one earlier this season. If you’re betting on Tennessee, you’re betting on them continuing to get the better of their rival Colts. I have two core concerns with a Titans bet. The first is that their injury-ravaged offensive line is a bottom tier group, and outside of Derrick Henry, Tennessee doesn’t have a whole lot of impact players on offense. The second is that the Titans’ secondary has been shredded this season, and Matt Ryan is coming off his best game as a Colt.
A bet on the Colts is a bet on a tough, physical football team playing a division rival with the same general qualities. One big difference between these two teams is that the Titans have had the Colts’ number in recent years. If you’re betting on Indianapolis, you’re betting on Matt Ryan being a difference-maker in this contest. Another path to a Colts’ victory is their front four playing their best game of the season against Tennessee’s injury-ravaged offensive line. Your biggest concern on a Colts bet is also trench-related, as their offensive line was disappointing through the first five games. That group gets a formidable Titans’ front four.
Awards Market Ramifications: Derrick Henry is a Comeback Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: This contest is a relative coin flip in winner pools. I will get some exposure to both teams in that format. In confidence pools I’m going to rank whoever I take here as low as I realistically can.
Spread Pool: My initial lean on this game was towards the Titans’ side, but after thoroughly digging through this matchup I’m starting to lean the other way. Over the last several years the Titans are among a few teams that I have not had a great read on ATS. I’m going to end up avoiding this contest this weekend.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12