Analysis
11/27/22
7 min read
NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions Steelers at Colts
Monday Night Football: Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) at Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)
Opening Spread: Colts -3.
Opening Game Total: 39.5.
Opening Team Totals: Colts (21.25), Steelers (18.25).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Colts -3.
- This line has moved down to Colts -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Colts -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Colts -2.5.
- This total opened at 39.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 38.5 points.
The Colts Offense vs. Steelers Defense
The Colts have a slightly below-average offensive with the raw materials to improve. Now that T.J. Watt is back, the Steelers have a top-10, if not, top-five defensive front. The Steelers have a considerable advantage in the trenches in this contest, which could be a real problem for a statuesque pocket passer like Matt Ryan.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- Indianapolis is 5-6 against the spread this season.
- The Colts are 2-9 on overs this season.
- Ryan is 113-114-4 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan is 103-125-3 on overs in his career.
- Jeff Saturday is 2-0 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Saturday is 1-1 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Colts Offense
- The Colts are scoring 15.7 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Indianapolis is 10th in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, since Saturday took over, Jonathan Taylor has 44 carries for 231 yards rushing, two scores and six targets.
- Michael Pittman has a 25.3% target share and a 28.2% air yards share. Pittman has 16 targets during the last two games.
- In the last four games Ryan has started, Parris Campbell has 38 total targets.
- Alec Pierce has 21 total targets during Ryan’s last four starts. Pierce has a 13.8% target share and a team-leading 29.3% air yards share.
- Kylen Granson has an 8.2% target share on 184 routes run. Mo Alie-Cox has a 4.8% target share on 172 routes run.
- Per TruMedia, Pittman has played 491 snaps on the perimeter and 145 in the slot.
- Campbell has played 151 snaps on the perimeter, and he leads the league in slot snaps with 449.
- Pierce has played 394 snaps on the perimeter and 21 in the slot.
Steelers Defense
- Pittsburgh has allowed 24.4 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Steelers have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing per game and the 13th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Pittsburgh has given up the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Steelers have given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the most to slot receivers.
- Pittsburgh has allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Steelers Offense vs. Colts Defense
The Steelers have a below-average offensive line. The Colts' defensive front is right on the border of average and below average at full strength. As of Saturday night, the Colts' three best defensive linemen were listed as questionable. The Colts have a minor advantage in the trenches in this matchup, which could evaporate if one of DeForest Buckner or Yannick Ngakoue miss this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Steelers are 4-5-1 against the spread this season.
- Pittsburgh is 4-6 on overs this season.
- Quarterback Kenny Pickett is 3-4 against the spread in his career.
- Pickett is 3-4 on overs in his career.
- Mike Tomlin is 127-119-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Tomlin is 110-138-3 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Steelers Offense
- Pittsburgh is scoring 17 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- The Steelers are 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and 22nd in yards rushing.
- Former NFL coach and The 33rd Team analyst Marc Trestman takes a deep dive on Pickett.
- Per the Edge, Najee Harris has exactly 20 carries for at least 90 yards rushing in each of his last two games. Harris has four or more targets in five of his 10 games this season.
- Jaylen Warren is out for this contest, so Harris could see a massive workload on Monday night.
- Since Pickett took over on Oct. 2, Diontae Johnson has breached 50 yards receiving twice in seven games.
- Since Oct. 2, George Pickens has breached 80 yards receiving in three of his seven games.
- Pat Freiermuth has seven or more targets in five of the six games he’s played with Pickett.
- Per TruMedia, Freiermuth has played 292 inline snaps, 14 on the perimeter and 99 in the slot.
Colts Defense
- Indianapolis has allowed 20 points per game, which is 11th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the 19th-most yards rushing per game and the seventh-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Indianapolis has given up the fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Colts have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- Indianapolis has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Colts vs. Steelers
A bet on the Colts is a bet on Saturday’s scrappy football operation. The Sam Ehlinger experiment/debacle is seemingly over, and Ryan is once again the Colts quarterback. While Ryan’s best days are behind him, he has played reasonably well the past two weeks in a win against the Raiders in Saturday’s coaching debut and a narrow loss to the Eagles last week.
The Colts' offensive line is still struggling in pass protection, but Taylor has two productive weeks in a row, and the Colts’ defense has been strong in both outings. If you’re betting on the Colts in this spot, your expectation is another solid effort on both sides of the ball. Your primary concern as a Colts' bettor is the Steelers' defensive front dominating this game.
A bet on the Steelers is a bet on a team with more long-term positives than negatives considering their record. Pickett has gone through some growing pains as most rookie quarterbacks do, but he’s coming off a game where the Steelers hung 30 points against the Bengals. I’ve seen positives in Pickett’s game every week since he took over.
Harris is coming off back-to-back strong efforts where he hit 90-plus yards rushing. Pickens and Freiermuth look like foundational pieces of the next decade of Steelers football. Johnson hasn’t really hit his stride since Pickett took over, and the Steelers' offensive line is still a bottom-tier unit, but this young offense is getting better.
The Steelers' defense has a significant advantage in the trenches in this matchup. If you are betting on Pittsburgh, that advantage is what I’d build that bet around. Your biggest concern with a Steelers bet is their young offense makes a few costly mistakes against a solid Colts defense, while Ryan’s offense mitigates the Steelers' push through smart play-calling.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I’m going to be Steelers-heavy in my winner pools, but I’ll mix in a little Colts exposure in that format. In my confidence pool rankings, I will be a little higher than the consensus on this game.
Spread Pool: The Steelers are in my ATS tournament entry pool this weekend.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
WATCH MORE: Top-10 NFL Defenses Right Now
