Betting

Larky’s Early 2023 NFL Divisional Round Parlays

Below, you’ll find six Divisional Round parlays I’ve taken well ahead of this weekend’s playoff games (all lines were taken Monday morning).

You’ll notice this is most certainly not your typical parlay article, as there are no wild longshot bets with multiple uncorrelated parlay legs. All my analysis is statistically and logically motivated.

For each parlay, I include the implied odds of it hitting. For example, a +220 parlay has implied odds of 31%. If I’m putting money on this parlay, I expect it to hit more than 31% of the time.

Mahomes 300+ Yards Passing + McKinnon Anytime TD

Odds: +350 (22%) on DraftKings

  • Patrick Mahomes threw for at least 300 yards passing in 10 of 17 (59%) games this season
    • The Chiefs’ offense had an adjustment period with the loss of Tyreek Hill, and Mahomes reached 300 yards passing in nine of his last 12 (75%) games.
  • Jerick McKinnon has scored a touchdown in six straight games
  • McKinnon is averaging 1.3 red zone carries, 0.3 goal line carries and 1.2 red zone targets per game during this stretch

Bengals (+4.5) + Bills Over 20.5 Total Points

Odds: +220 (31%) on DraftKings

  • Bengals +4.5 is -110 (52% implied odds)
  • The Bills have been under 20.5 total points in only three games this season
    • They were under this number in both games against the Jets’ elite defense
    • They were under in Week 3 against Miami, despite having 497 yards of total offense
  • The Bengals only had one loss this season by more than three points.
    • It was Week 8 against Cleveland, their first game playing without Ja’Marr Chase (hip fracture). Chase is healthy now

Eagles Win + Giants Over 13.5 Total Points

Odds: -115 (53%) on DraftKings

  • Eagles moneyline is -295 (75% implied odds)
  • The Giants scored at least 14 points in 17 of 18 games this season (including the playoffs)
  • New York scored 16 and 22 points against the Eagles during the regular season

 

Eagles Win +  Eagles Under 37.5 Total Points + Giants Over 13.5 Total Points

Odds: +140 (42%) on DraftKings

  • Eagles moneyline is -295 (75% implied odds)
  • The Giants scored at least 14 points in 17 of 18 games this season (including the playoffs)
  • New York scored 16 and 22 points against the Eagles during the regular season.
  • The Giants allowed under 37.5 total points in 17 of 18 games (including the playoffs)
    • While that one game was against the Eagles, the Giants were missing key starters CB Adoree’ Jackson and DL Leonard Williams for that contest. Both are now healthy
  • The Eagles were under 37.5 total points in 14 of 17 games

Chiefs Win + Jaguars Over 13.5 Total Points

Odds: -135 (57%) on DraftKings

  • Chiefs moneyline is -390 (80% implied odds)
  • The Jaguars have scored at least 14 points in 17 of 18 games (including the playoffs)
  • The Chiefs have allowed at least 14 points in 14 of 17 games

Chiefs Win + Chiefs Under 40.5 Total Points + Jaguars Over 13.5 Total Points

Odds: +125 (44%) on DraftKings

  • Chiefs moneyline is -390 (80% implied odds).
  • The Jaguars have scored at least 14 points in 17 of 18 games (including the playoffs).
  • Kansas City has allowed at least 14 points in 14 of 17 games.
  • The Chiefs have been under 40.5 total points in 14 of 17 games, with a streak of 10 straight games going under
  • The Jaguars have allowed fewer than 40.5 total points in all 18 games (including the playoffs)

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Divisional Round parlays. As always, please bet responsibly

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