Analysis
1/1/23
9 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bills vs. Bengals
Bills (12-3) at Bengals (11-4)
Opening Spread: Bengals +1.5
Opening Game Total: 49.5
Opening Team Totals: Bengals (24) Bills (25.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bengals +1.5
- This line remains at +1.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bengals +.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bengals +1
- This total opened at 49.5-points
- This total remains at 49.5-points
Notable Injuries
Bengals: Out: La’el Collins. Questionable: Edge Sam Hubbard.
Bills: Questionable: S Jordan Poyer
Bengals Offense vs. Bills Defense
I have the Bengals tiered as a league-average offensive line. I have the Bills' injury-reduced defensive front tiered in the same group. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bengals are 12-3 against the spread this season
- Cincinnati is 5-9-1 on overs this season
- Joe Burrow is 27-14 against the spread in his career
- Burrow is 19-20-2 on overs in his career
- Zac Taylor is 37-27 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Taylor is 28-34-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
Bengals Offense
- Cincinnati is scoring 26.1 points per game, good for sixth in the league
- The Bengals are third in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing
- Cincinnati passes on 66% of plays and runs on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Joe Mixon is 23rd in the league in yards rushing with 787, and he’s sixth among running backs in yards receiving
- Samaje Perine is 27th among running backs in yards receiving
- Ja’Marr Chase has 79 receptions for 960 yards receiving and eight touchdowns in 11 games. Chase has a 29% target share and a 39.1% air yards share
- Tee Higgins has 73 receptions for 1,022 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Higgins has an 18.5% target share and a 28.1% air yards share
- Tyler Boyd has 53 receptions for 711 yards receiving and five touchdowns. Boyd has a 13.4% target share and a 17.6% air yards share
- Hayden Hurst has a 14.4% target share and a 10.6% air yards share
- Per TruMedia, Chase has played 540 snaps on the perimeter and 139 in the slot
- Higgins has played 538 snaps on the perimeter and 125 in the slot
- Boyd has played 121 snaps on the perimeter and 588 in the slot
Bills Defense
- Buffalo has allowed 17.5 points per game, which is second in the league
- Per The Edge, the Bills have allowed the 21st-most yards rushing and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Buffalo has given up the 10th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Bills have given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers
- Buffalo has allowed the 26th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
Bills Offense vs. Bengals Defense
I have the Bills' offensive line tiered in the back of league average to slightly below average range. I have the Bengals' defensive front tiered as a below-average group. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bills are 7-8 against the spread this season
- Buffalo is 5-10 on overs this season
- Josh Allen is 42-30-4 against the spread in his career
- Allen is 32-42-2 on overs in his career
- Sean McDermott is 52-38-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- McDermott is 41-52-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
Bills Offense
- Buffalo is scoring 28 points per game, which is fourth in the league
- The Bills are seventh in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing
- Buffalo passes on 65% of plays and runs on 35% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Allen is 28th in the league in yards rushing with 746
- Devin Singletary is 22nd in the league in yards rushing with 790, and he’s 19th among running backs in yards receiving
- James Cook has double-digit carries in three of his last six games. He has five or fewer in the other three
- Stefon Diggs is fourth in the league in receptions (101), third in yards receiving (1,325), third in receiving touchdowns (10), 12th in target share (27.3%) and 18th in air yards share (34%)
- Gabe Davis has a 16.9% target share and a 29.6% air yards share. Davis has breached 75 yards receiving in three of his 14 games this season
- Isaiah McKenzie has a 13.1% target share and a 13.1% air yards share. McKenzie has 25 yards receiving or less in nine of his 14 games, and 75 yards receiving or more in two
- Dawson Knox has a 13.1% target share and an 11.2% air yards share. Knox has a receiving touchdown in each of his last three games
- Per TruMedia, Diggs has played 509 snaps on the perimeter and 240 in the slot
- Davis has played 708 snaps on the perimeter and 105 in the slot
- McKenzie has played 134 snaps on the perimeter and 358 in the slot
Bengals Defense
- Cincinnati has allowed 20.4 points per game, which is ninth in the league
- Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the 26th-most yards rushing per game and the 20th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Cincinnati has given up the 18th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Bengals have given up the sixth-most PPR points to slot receivers
- Cincinnati has allowed the 13th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Bills are the current top seed in the AFC. They could fall to the third seed with a loss in this contest and a Chiefs victory against the Broncos. A Bengals win and a Ravens loss would clinch the AFC North for Cincinnati. If the Bengals win out they’ll be the No. 2 seed, with a narrow path to claiming the conference's top seed.
Both teams are highly motivated in one of the highest-interest games of the regular season. In terms of points scored and points allowed per game, both teams have a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense. This is the first time Burrow and Allen have played against each other.
If You’re Betting on the Bengals
The Bengals have won seven games in a row and nine of their last 10. Five of those contests were one-score games. The Bengals are 5-3 in one-score games this season.
In just his third season, Burrow has already established himself as one of the faces of the league. Any bet on the Bengals is always built around Burrow and his premium collection of skill position players. Early in the year, Cincinnati’s offensive line consistently struggled, but they have steadily improved to the point they are now a league-average unit. The Bills' defense has still performed at a high level despite being without difference makers in Von Miller and Micah Hyde, but that group will be put to the test by Cincinnati’s elite offense. Just like they were against the Dolphins two weeks ago.
The Bengals are rock-solid team defense. I’d frame them and the Patriots as two groups that are notably better on the field than they are on paper. The Bengals held Lamar Jackson to 58 yards rushing on 12 carries and the Ravens to 19 points earlier in the year. They held Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs to 24 points. Cincinnati has already shown that they can keep an MVP-caliber player like Allen near expectations. Still, your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is Allen carrying the Bills to yet another massive output on offense.
If You’re Betting on the Bills
The Bills have won six in a row and eight of their last 10. Seven of those contests were one-score games. The Bills are 6-3 in one-score games this season.
I have been saying this since the offseason: outside of Diggs, Allen has an average supporting cast on offense. If you are betting on the Bills, especially against a contender like the Bengals, you are betting on Allen to carry this offense. Allen is one of the few players in the league where exceeding expectations has become the expectation. The Bengals have a rock-solid team defense, but Allen is more than capable of beating the Bills' 25.5-point team total against this group.
Buffalo has been a high-performing defense for the majority of Allen’s young career. Buffalo held the Chiefs to 20 points earlier in the year, but they recently gave up 29 points to the Dolphins, 25 to the Lions and 33 to the Vikings. Your biggest concern as a Bills bettor is Burrow’s offense is the premium version of Minnesota’s, and Burrow is starting to make a habit of beating the best of the best.
Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is the MVP favorite, but the winning quarterback of this game could potentially challenge him in that race.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: This game is a true coin flip, and I will treat it as such in winner pools. I will rank this game at the very bottom in my confidence pools this week.
Spread Pool: This is a great football game, perhaps the most even high-end contest of the year. I will not bet on this game directly, but I will lean Bengals in pick every game ATS pools.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
WATCH: Betting Bills vs. Bengals
