Betting AFC South: Jaguars are Where to Put Your Money
Betting 5/3/23
The AFC South has three new faces courtesy of last week’s NFL Draft, as the Houston Texans (C.J. Stroud) and Indianapolis Colts (Anthony Richardson) took rookie quarterbacks in the top four picks, while the Tennessee Titans snagged Will Levis at the start of Round 2.Â
These three rookie quarterbacks represent three critical data points not properly reflected in the betting markets. Inspired by our own NFL Draft and Betting Analyst Dalton Kates, this article will outline how to leverage this information, providing two concrete bets we believe are currently mispriced.
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History of Rookie QB Wins
In the past 10 years, there have been 464 games started by rookie quarterbacks, and they have collectively won 168 games — a paltry 36.2 percent cumulative win percentage. To provide NFL standings context, these rookie quarterbacks average a 6-11 pace over a 17-game season.
Twenty-nine rookie quarterbacks have started at least eight of their team’s games over the past decade, and just seven have won at least 50 percent of them, while only four posted a winning record. Put another way, 24 percent of rookies won at least half their games, while slightly fewer than 14 percent had a winning record overall. No matter how you slice it, teams that start rookie quarterbacks are generally bad.
Rookie quarterbacks generally perform worse on the field, too. This sample of 464 games started by rookies averaged a passer rating of 81.5, while every other game started during this 10-year span featured an average passer rating of 91.5. Even if you think there are slight error bars surrounding passer rating as a measure of quarterback play, this is a massive discrepancy only explained by poor on-field play.
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2022 AFC South Standings
Team | Record | Points Scored | Points Allowed | Differential |
Jaguars | 9-8 | 404 | 350 | 54 |
Titans | 7-10 | 298 | 359 | -61 |
Colts | 4-12 | 289 | 427 | -138 |
Texans | 3-13 | 289 | 420 | -131 |
The Jacksonville Jaguars were the only team to win more games than they lost, while also having a point differential that was 115 better than the Titans, 192 better than the Colts, and 185 better than Houston.
2023 NFL Draft
Houston Texans
The Texans selected quarterback C.J. Stroud (scouting report) with the No. 2 overall pick. He played with receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka in 2022 at Ohio State. Both those players were off the board by Pick 13 in our recent 2024 Mock Draft. Stroud will experience a massive downgrade in the supporting cast as a rookie, as the Texans have arguably the NFL’s worst receiving core. This team will struggle to score points, and their win total of 6.5 in the betting markets signals the public agrees.
Indianapolis Colts
At pick No. 4, quarterback Anthony Richardson (scouting report) was taken by Indianapolis. He’ll compete with Gardner Minshew for reps and should take over by midseason. Richardson started just one season at Florida, where he completed fewer than 54 percent of his passes, throwing 17 TDs to nine INTs. Like the Texans, the Colts’ win total is sitting at just 6.5 in current betting markets.
Tennessee Titans
At pick No. 33, the Titans selected quarterback Will Levis (scouting report), who most expected to be gone in the first half of Round 1. It’s unclear how many games he will start in 2023 as a second-round pick, but the Titans probably have the thinnest receiver room outside of the Texans and one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. The Titans allowed the most passing yards in the NFL last season (274 per game), via our free and flagship tool, The Edge. Expecting Ryan Tannehill to start all 17 games and carry this team to a winning record is a tall ask, and betting markets have Tennessee sitting at only 7.5 wins.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence is one of the favorites in 2023 MVP races, and the Jaguars upset the Los Angeles Chargers in the playoffs, before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The team needed help on the offensive line, and they drafted tackle Anton Harrison (scouting report) with the No. 27 selection. Calvin Ridley was added to a team that already scored the 10th most points last season. The Jaguars have a young, talented defensive unit that should be much improved in 2023. Betting markets share similar optimism, pegging the Jaguars’ over/under at 10.5 wins.
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Jaguars Divisional Odds
To review, rookie quarterbacks play poorly, and their teams rarely win many games. Betting markets expect the Jaguars to win three more games than the Titans, and four more games than the Colts or Texans.
It’s tough to see the Jaguars not winning this division, yet their odds are only -150 (60 percent) on DraftKings. From the above analysis, their implied percentage of winning the division should be closer to 70 percent. We recommend betting on the Jaguars to win the division if you’re considering entering this market.
Jaguars Win Total
All win total figures are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
AFC South (6 Games)
- Jacksonville faces the Texans and Colts twice, each with a win total over/under of 6.5.
- The Jaguars face the Titans (7.5 wins) twice.
The Jaguars likely win at least four of these six games.
NFC South (4 Games)
- The New Orleans Saints are projected for 9.5 wins.
- The Atlanta Falcons are projected to win 8.5 games.
- The Carolina Panthers are projected to win 7.5 games.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to win 6.5 games.
The Jaguars should win at least three of these games.
AFC North (4 Games)
- The Cincinnati Bengals project for 11.5 wins.
- The Baltimore Ravens project for 9.5 wins.
- The Cleveland Browns are projected to win 9.5 games.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to win 8.5 games.
The Jaguars probably win two of these four games.
Other Opponents (3 Games)
- The Chiefs’ win total over/under is 11.5 games.
- The San Francisco 49ers’ win total is also 11.5 games.
- The Buffalo Bills’ win total is 10.5 games.
This is a brutal final three teams to face, and none of these opponents overlap with the Titans, Colts, or Texans. Let’s give the Jaguars one win among these three games after beating the Chargers in the playoffs, then losing by one score to Kansas City the week after.
That would give the Jaguars 10 wins. There’s a real possibility they sweep their division, which would add two more wins. They could also sweep the NFC South, adding another win. Only four of their 17 opponents have a win total at or exceeding theirs. Overall, the win total average for their opponents is just 8.5 wins, a very low record for a team that just won the division, and has a potential MVP candidate in Lawrence.
We can make the Philadelphia Eagles parallel from last season, where a talented team finds itself with a relatively easy schedule.
On DraftKings, the Jaguars’ win total is set at 10.5, and betting the over is listed at +125 (44.4 percent). We would recommend considering this bet, too, given all the above information.
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