Analysis
11/12/22
8 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Chargers vs. 49ers
Sunday Night Football: Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
Opening Spread: 49ers -7.
Opening Game Total: 46.5.
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (26.75), Chargers (19.75).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as 49ers -7.
- This line has moved up to 49ers -7.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the 49ers -7.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the 49ers -7.5.
- This total opened at 46.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 45.5 points.
Notable Injuries
49ers
Out: DL Arik Armstead, DL Javon Kinlaw, CB Jason Verrett.
Doubtful: Edge Samson Ebukam.
Chargers
Out: WR Mike Williams, WR Keenan Allen, LT Rashawn Slater, Edge Joey Bosa, CB J.C. Jackson, PK Dustin Hopkins.
Doubtful: Edge Chris Rumph II. Questionable: RT Trey Pipkins III
The 49ers Offense vs. Chargers Defense
The 49ers have a fringe top-10 offensive line. Without premium edge Joey Bosa, the Chargers have an average to slightly below-average front four. San Francisco has a mild advantage in the trenches. However, Chargers' edge Khalil Mack is an individual matchup challenge for anyone.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 4-4 against the spread this season.
- San Francisco is 3-5 on overs this season.
- 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 42-27-1 against the spread in his career.
- Garoppolo is 36-32-2 on overs in his career.
- 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 43-45-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Kyle Shanahan is 44-43-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
49ers Offense
- San Francisco is scoring 22 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- The 49ers are 12th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, in his second full game as a 49er, RB Christian McCaffrey saw 18 carries and nine targets against the Rams. Keep in mind that extreme volume came with WR Deebo Samuel sidelined and in front of the 49ers' bye week.
- RB Elijah Mitchell is off the injury report and could see some run against the Chargers' soft run defense.
- Samuel has between six and 10 targets in every game he’s played this season. Deebo has exceeded 70 yards receiving in three of his seven games.
- WR Brandon Aiyuk has 11 targets in two of his last three games and he’s breached 80 yards receiving in each of his last three games.
- TE George Kittle has at least five targets in all but one of his six games this season. Kittle has exceeded 80 yards receiving in two of his last three games.
- Per TruMedia, Kittle has played 215 snaps as an inline tight end, 18 on the perimeter, and 82 in the slot.
Chargers Defense
- Los Angeles has allowed 25.8 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the second most yards rushing per game and the 20th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 25th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Chargers have allowed the eighth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- Los Angeles has allowed the seventh most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
The Chargers Offense vs. 49ers Defense
The loss of LT Rashawn Slater has moved the Chargers' top-10 caliber offensive line toward the back of the average tier for weeks now. Similarly, the 49ers have a top-five front when they are at full strength. Unfortunately for San Francisco, they are down at least two starters and likely a third. This trench matchup is a relative draw from a macro sense, though 49ers edge Nick Bosa has a significant individual matchup advantage on the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chargers are 5-3 against the spread this season.
- Los Angeles is 4-4 on overs this season.
- Chargers QB Justin Herbert is 21-19 against the spread in his career.
- Herbert is 23-17 on overs in his career.
- Chargers coach Brandon Staley is 13-12 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Staley is 14-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Chargers Offense
- Los Angeles is scoring 23 points per game, good for 13th in the league.
- The Chargers are sixth in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Austin Ekeler is 24th among running backs in yards rushing but he has the most yards receiving at the position.
- With WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen sidelined, Josh Palmer is the top option in the Chargers offense. Palmer has 22 targets during the last two games, breaching 100 yards receiving last week against the Falcons.
- WR Deandre Carter becomes the WR2 in the Chargers' offense with Williams and Allen out. Carter has at least five targets in each of his last three games.
- Among tight ends, Gerald Everett is 13th in receptions (32), eighth in yards receiving (341), and he’s 15th in target share (15.6%).
- Everett has at least seven targets in each of the last three games.
49ers Defense
- San Francisco has allowed 18.4 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards rushing and the 26th most yards receiving per game to running backs.
- San Francisco has given up the 12th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The 49ers have allowed the sixth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in 49ers vs. Chargers
This is another game significantly impacted by injuries. Injuries have made the Chargers an entirely different team than they were on opening day. It’s turned their elite pass rush and offensive lines into average to below-average groups. The absence of WR Mike Williams and Allen has capped the ceiling of the Chargers' high-powered offense.
On the 49ers' side, their pass rush is down at least two starters and likely a third. They still have Nick Bosa, but those injuries turn what was arguably the league's best pass rush into one that’s now outside the top 10.
A bet on the 49ers is a bet on their loaded, well-coached offense. The 49ers have a rock-solid offensive line headlined by premium left tackle Trent Williams. With the addition of McCaffrey, you could argue San Francisco has the best, most complete skill group in the league now. Garoppolo can be a little up and down at times, but he’s been a successful quarterback for years with an outstanding supporting cast.
Against the Chargers specifically, McCaffrey and the returning Mitchell could have a collective field day against Los Angeles’s run defense. Speaking of defense, the 49ers' front has been significantly reduced by injuries, but this is still a good defense facing a depleted Chargers offense. Los Angeles still has Herbert, but he's without three of his four best players on offense. Your biggest concern as a 49ers' bettor is Herbert putting this offense on his back and keeping this game close. If you pair it with an uneven Garoppolo performance, that’s your path to a Chargers victory.
A bet on the Chargers is a bet on an injury-ravaged roster paired with a coaching staff that simply does what they do with no major adjustments. That means a Chargers' bet is either a bet against Garoppolo or a bet made with the expectation Herbert carries this injury-depleted offense. Your biggest concern as a Chargers' bettor is the 49ers' offense blows the doors off of the Chargers' injury-depleted defense, while Herbert struggles without his two best wide receivers against one of the better defenses in the league.
Awards Market Ramifications: Christian McCaffrey is a Comeback Player of the Year contender. Nick Bosa is a Defensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the 49ers in my winner pools. I’m going to rank this game right with consensus in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m going to stay away from this game ATS, especially now the 49ers' side has gotten past the key number of seven.
Survivor Pool: As I’ve mentioned in a few other matchup articles this week, I have one entry left in the DraftKings survivor pool with a million dollars up top. Right now, I have the 49ers selected in that entry, because a lot of things have to go wrong for the 49ers to lose this game.
Specifically, the Chargers need Herbert to have a strong game against a high-end defense while playing with a significantly reduced supporting cast on offense. Then, you need Garoppolo to have multiple turnovers in a game where San Francisco could realistically approach 200 yards on the ground. I may end up pivoting, but the 49ers are who I’m going with in survivor right now.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: Farley's Best Bets
