Analysis
11/8/23
10 min read
6 NFL Teams on the Rise Entering Second Half of 2023 Season
We’ve hit the midpoint of the 2023 NFL season and last year’s Super Bowl teams — the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs — are cruising along at the top of their conferences, as expected.
Several other teams are on the rise (to varying degrees) because of winning streaks and bring a surprising element, which could be due to improving after bad starts or outperforming preseason expectations.
Here are six teams — four in the AFC and two in the NFC — to keep a close eye on down the stretch.
6 NFL Second-Half Risers
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars finished the 2022 regular season on a roll with five consecutive wins, including a sweep of the Tennessee Titans to claim the weak AFC South with a 9-8 record. Jacksonville staged a dramatic comeback from a 27-0 deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers, 31-30, in the wild-card round. The Jaguars then played the Chiefs tough in a seven-point divisional round loss at Kansas City.
Jacksonville was the consensus preseason pick to win its division but got off to a clunky 1-2 start with home losses to the Chiefs and Houston Texans (who surprisingly destroyed the Jaguars, 37-17). Since then, the Jaguars have the league’s longest winning streak at five games. That includes back-to-back wins in London over the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills and impressive road wins in the Jaguars’ last two games at the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Jacksonville defense’s ability to force turnovers has been key because the Jaguars are tied for the league lead with 18 takeaways. That covers for their pass defense, which ranks 30th, while Jacksonville is third against the run. EDGE Josh Allen is having an excellent season (nine sacks, 48 pressures), but he needs more help because the team has only 16 sacks, which ranks 30th.
The offensive production is middle of the pack. RB Travis Etienne is having a fine season (849 combined yards rushing and receiving with eight touchdowns). QB Trevor Lawrence’s numbers (93.6 passer rating to rank 13th) are slightly down from 2022. He’ll need to elevate his play and have better protection (19 sacks allowed) with a tough six-game stretch upcoming. The Jaguars play host to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday and then are home vs. the Titans, at Houston, vs. Cincinnati, at Cleveland and vs. Baltimore.
The Jaguars have a two-game division lead over the Texans and should be on track to repeat as AFC South champions, but it will be a challenge for them to earn a top-three seed in the loaded AFC.
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens’ four-game winning streak includes home demolitions of two NFC teams in playoff position — a 38-6 win over the Detroit Lions and a 37-3 one Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Baltimore’s game against the Lions, in particular, sent a strong message to the rest of the league because the Ravens scored touchdowns on their first four drives. QB Lamar Jackson was unstoppable and threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns.
After last season’s 10-7 record and first-round playoff exit at Cincinnati (with Jackson out injured), the Ravens were projected to be a wild-card team, but the Cincinnati Bengals were picked to repeat as AFC North champs. At 7-2, the Ravens hold a one-and-a-half-game lead over Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Cleveland in the NFL’s best division.
The Ravens have road wins in Cincinnati and Cleveland but lost at Pittsburgh. They have the advantage of facing all three teams at home in the second half of the season, including the Browns and Bengals in their next two games in important divisional matchups. If the Ravens win these games, they should cruise to the division title and a potential top-two AFC seed.
This is a star-studded team with Jackson (fifth in passer rating at 100.8) having more receiving weapons than ever and still running well (440 yards, five touchdowns). LB Roquan Smith (87 tackles) is a tremendous performer and leader on the league’s second-ranked defense.
Cincinnati Bengals
The only surprise with the Bengals was their rough 1-3 start after many picked them to battle the Chiefs for AFC supremacy. Joe Burrow’s training camp calf injury was the main culprit in their poor start, but his recovery has gotten the offense back on track. The Bengals have won four-straight games, including impressive victories at San Francisco and at home against Buffalo the past two weeks.
Burrow has passed for 631 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions in the past two games. Ja’Marr Chase also has come on after a slow start and has 64 catches, 697 yards and four touchdowns. Fellow receiver Tee Higgins had a 110-yard game against the Bills.
The Cincinnati defense also is playing better after a shaky start, with Trey Hendrickson (eight sacks) and Logan Wilson (65 tackles) leading the way.
The Bengals lead the league with a plus-nine turnover ratio that includes the second-fewest giveaways (six). That’s a good formula for a second-half run as they try to chase down Baltimore. Their November 16, Thursday night game against the Ravens is probably a must-win if Cincinnati is going to defend its AFC North title. Road games at Jacksonville (Week 13) and Kansas City (Week 17) will also be big challenges.
Houston Texans
With a new coaching staff led by DeMeco Ryans and a rookie quarterback to break in, the Texans may be a year away from the playoffs, but they are among the league’s biggest surprise teams at 4-4 after being expected to remain a bottom-feeder after last season’s 3-13-1 finish.
Second overall pick C.J. Stroud has far exceeded expectations as the main cog in leading Houston into potential playoff contention. He’s the clear Offensive Rookie of the Year at this juncture and is coming off a rookie-record 470 passing yards (with five touchdowns and no interceptions) in last week’s 39-37 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Stroud ranks fourth in passer rating (102.9) with 14 touchdowns and only one interception, which is amazing for a rookie quarterback. He’s only been sacked seven times in the past six games; LT Laremy Tunsil is doing a stellar job protecting Stroud's blind side.
Houston’s Week 3, 20-point win in Jacksonville was an eye-opener. But if the Texans hope to make a playoff push, they’ll need to improve their 27th-ranked running game and their pass rush, because they have only 17 sacks (tied for 26th).
Third overall pick Will Anderson has 30 tackles but only two sacks from his defensive end spot. More pressure is needed from him beginning this week when the Texans have a tough matchup against Burrow and the Bengals in Cincinnati. After that, the Jaguars and Browns are the only winning teams left on Houston's schedule.
>>READ: C.J. Stroud Already Is One of NFL's Best Quarterbacks
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings had a surprising 13-win season and won the NFC North last year in coach Kevin O’Connell’s first season. Their 11 one-score wins, followed by a home playoff loss to the Giants, left the Vikings as the second choice to the Lions in the NFC North among NFL observers entering this season.
The Lions had a good first half at 6-2, but the Vikings are closing in at 5-4 and are riding a four-game winning streak, which came after a dismal 0-3 start when they had nine turnovers. Minnesota flipped that to a plus-three turnover ratio during the current winning streak.
Kirk Cousins threw for 378 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 7 upset of the 49ers, and he was having his best season when he tore his Achilles against the Green Bay Packers in Week 8. That, combined with All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson already being on injured reserve due to a hamstring injury, fueled doubters again.
It set the stage for new QB Josh Dobbs’ amazing performance (with no practice reps after arriving via trade) in Sunday’s improbable win in Atlanta and continued the roller coaster ride that has been the Vikings’ season. Certainly, no one expected Minnesota to go 4-0 with its best player, Jefferson, on injured reserve (IR).
Dobbs has a terrific supporting cast with star rookie receiver Jordan Addison (seven touchdowns), tight end T.J. Hockenson (60 receptions, 547 yards, three touchdowns), Jefferson when he returns (he’s eligible to come off IR this week but he may be held out another week or two) and a good pass-protecting offensive line. The Vikings must improve their 29th-ranked run game that was led by Dobbs’ 66 yards in scramble mode against the Falcons.
The Vikings' biggest improvement has been their aggressive defense under new DC Brian Flores. Minnesota ranked 31st in total defense last season and has improved to 14th through nine games. NFL sack leader Danielle Hunter (10 sacks) leads a unit that starts three safeties and is playing better run defense but remains shaky at the cornerback spots.
The Vikings hold the NFC’s third wild-card spot and have a favorable schedule leading up to two games in the final three weeks against Detroit that could decide the division race. It’s a huge improvement from 0-3.
New Orleans Saints
The NFC South was considered wide open entering this season with no visions of grandeur for a New Orleans team coming off a 7-10 season and bringing in Derek Carr as the starting quarterback. Coach Dennis Allen was (and still may be) on the hot seat with a career head coaching record of 15-38 before 2023.
The 5-4 Saints started this season 2-0, blew a 17-0 lead in a one-point loss at Green Bay in Week 3 and have been up and down since, with a 34-0 shutout of the New England Patriots a high point. New Orleans has won two straight — over the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears — to take the division lead. With the Buccaneers reeling (four consecutive losses) and the Falcons a mess at quarterback, New Orleans looks like the NFC South's best team as it heads to Minnesota this week.
Carr has been average overall (17th-ranked passer), but he played well the past two weeks with 521 passing yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions against the Colts’ and Bears’ mediocre defenses.
Pro Bowl linebacker Demario Davis (65 tackles, three sacks) leads the Saints’ seventh-ranked defense. The defense is the team's strength and has a league-leading 18 takeaways that has helped New Orleans to a plus-eight turnover ratio (second best). But New Orleans needs to improve a pass rush that has only 17 sacks (25th).
The Saints' remaining schedule includes only two teams who have winning records: the Vikings and Lions. That should allow New Orleans to continue as a team on the rise because it will likely win the suspect NFC South by default.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter at @jeffdiamondnfl.
