Analysis
6/20/23
3 min read
4 Underdog Fantasy QB Passing Yards Lines to Consider
Underdog Fantasy recently released season-long passing yards lines for quarterbacks. Josh Larky and Brian O’Connell identify four lines they’re interested in taking, outlining the logic behind their picks.
>>READ: Underdog Rushing Lines to Consider
Passing Yardage Lines to Consider
Kirk Cousins LOWER than 4350.5 Passing Yards
To begin, Kirk Cousins has only topped this number in two of his eight seasons as a starter. Regression from last season’s 4,547 yards is likely, as he had 124 yards passing in overtime last season. Also, he will likely not see as many pass-heavy game scripts this season.
Several massive comebacks contributed to pass-heavy game scripts. In the six games the Minnesota Vikings won where they were tied or trailing going into the fourth quarter, he averaged 106.4 yards passing in that final quarter, a 426-yardage pace. For context, only six quarterbacks were higher than this number in 2022.
Desmond Ridder LOWER than 2600.5 Passing Yards
Marcus Mariota was well below this total (2,219 yards in 13 games) last season in a very run-heavy offense. While Mariota would have likely reached this number should he have played all 17 games, there is a serious chance that Taylor Heinicke will win the camp battle or starts some games during the middle of the season. Heinicke out-played Carson Wentz in Washington, and Wentz is almost certainly better than Desmond Ridder, the Atlanta Falcons’ third-round pick from last year’s draft.
Ridder is a mobile quarterback, giving him a higher chance of missing time due to injury. He needs to maximize the amount of time on the field if he wants to go over this number, and any minor injury or ankle sprain would cash this ticket. The Falcons have one of the easiest schedules according to our in-house metric and are unlikely to be in a lot of situations where he needs to air it out.
Sam Howell is in a similar enough situation to Ridder, with Jacoby Brissett close behind on the depth chart, and sites are not posting any Howell lines out of caution.
Trevor Lawrence HIGHER than 3975.5 Passing Yards
Trevor Lawrence was above this total last season, and the team added Calvin Ridley. This is now one of the most talented receiving groups in the league. The Jacksonville Jaguars face tougher opponents than last year and will need to air it out against the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals. Many other sites have this line posted at 4,175.5 yards.
Lamar Jackson LOWER than 3500.5 Passing Yards
If Lamar Jackson plays 17 games, there is a solid chance he can hit this number. However, with Lamar, health must factor into it. His highest yardage total was 2019 when he passed for 3,127 yards.
Jackson has dealt with injury issues his entire NFL career and has never started more than 15 games in a season, including no more than 12 games each of the last two seasons. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken wants to pass more overall, but the switch could lead to some growing pains for this offense in the first few weeks of the season.
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