Fantasy

10/3/22

11 min read

33 Fantasy Takeaways from Week 4

By Josh Larky

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Below, you'll find 33 fantasy takeaways from Week 4. They're organized by game, and the first 30 correspond to the 30 teams that have already played in Week 4. Consider the final three as bonus takes, to stay on brand.

MIA at CIN

• Tee Higgins is out-producing Ja’Marr Chase when they’re on the field together in 2022. Throwing out Week 1 - where Higgins left early with a concussion - we can see the per game numbers favor Higgins across the board.

• One of Tyreek Hill (Weeks 1 and 4) or Jaylen Waddle (Weeks 2 and 3) has had a target share of 30% or higher in each game this season. Two other instances where one of them reached a 20% target share. This is the most consolidated fantasy-relevant offense in football.

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MIN at NO

• Despite an inconsistent start to the fantasy season, Justin Jefferson has at least 11 targets in three of four games. He’s also averaging 21.4 PPR points per game, two more than last season. Three of the next four games are against the Bears, Cardinals, and Commanders. Despite his Week 4 performance, Jefferson is an excellent buy high in fantasy football.
• Chris Olave is a Top-15 WR rest of season. He has led the team in targets each of the past three games, with at least a 25% target share in all of them. The high target shares combined with the elite target depth (18.7 aDOT, No. 2 in the NFL) is a fantasy football cheat code.

Justin Fields air yards: 654

Chris Olave air yards: 635

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 3, 2022

SEA at DET

• Geno Smith and this Seahawks offense can actually sustain fantasy production, if the play volume stays high. I added up Geno dropbacks, Geno rush attempts, and RB rush attempts. Here are their totals in Weeks 1-4: 50, 46, 69, 64. We’ll be able to consistently see 2 of Rashaad Penny, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett pop for big games each week if play volume lives in the 60s.

• Few things in life are more consistent than Jared Goff and targeting receivers in the short/intermediate parts of the field. With both Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift OUT in Week 4, TJ Hockenson soaked up 12 targets, catching eight for 179 yards and two touchdowns.

NYJ at PIT

• Joe Flacco failed to crack seven yards per attempt in his three starts, yet Zach Wilson hit that mark in his first game back. As expected, pass volume decreased (39 dropbacks for Wilson, while Flacco had 47+ in every game), but this was a positive season debut for Wilson overall. His 9.2 air yards per attempt were the 11th highest mark of Week 4, another positive sign for the pass catchers.

• Najee Harris needs to be sold in redraft before the price goes down anymore. The switch to Kenny Pickett is unlikely to benefit Harris. Red zone and goal line rush attempts were already hard to come by in this anemic offense, and Pickett had two goal line rush attempts (both resulted in TDs) in Week 4.

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CHI at NYG

• Justin Fields’ 11 completions were his season high, and his 174 passing yards were 53 more than any other game this year. He took at least five sacks for the second straight week, and has completed more than 50% of his passes in only one game this season.

• Saquon Barkley is on pace for 2,423 total yards this season. Chris Johnson set the record in 2009 with 2,509 total yards. Saquon is having a historically good start to the 2022 season.

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TEN at IND

• The Colts had the best run defense in the NFL, allowing 2.5 yards per carry to opposing back through three games. Derrick Henry ran 22 times for 114 yards against them in Week 4. He now has back-to-back games with over 23 fantasy points, and with the Treylon Burks injury, Henry’s receiving involvement is likely to stay. He’s had at least five targets the past two games.

• Jonathan Taylor has an ankle sprain and should miss Week 5 since the Colts play on Thursday. Nyheim Hines should benefit greatly, as Taylor has run more routes than him all 4 games this season. Hines has 19 targets on only 70 routes (27% rate), and could flirt with double digit targets in this contest.

HOU at LAC

• In Week 4, Austin Ekeler had all four red zone carries, along with both red zone targets. If he continues to get the majority of the work near the end zone, he is a high-end RB1 rest of season. Through three weeks, he had two of the six (33%) RB red zone carries, and two of the four (50%) red zone targets.

•  Dameon Pierce took on a truly elite fatnasy role in Week 4. After seeing no more than two targets in any contest (and running fewer routes than Burkhead the first three games), Pierce saw six targets to Burkhead’s five against the Chargers. Pierce saw 14 carries and six targets in Week 4, just the 12th time a RB has reached both those marks in 2022.

CLE at ATL

• David Njoku looks like a potential league-winner as a late-round TE. He has an end zone target in three straight games, and he’s averaging 65 yards per game during this span, a 1,100 yard pace over 17 games. Buy now in redraft/dynasty, while Deshaun Watson is still multiple months away from returning.

• Kyle Pitts actually needs to start getting featured soon. He ran only 12 routes in Week 4, but now Cordarrelle Patterson is on IR. The Falcons have arguably the worst group of backup RBs in the league, and Arthur Smith is running out of reasons for not letting Kyle Pitts run a route on 90% or more of Marcus Mariota’s dropbacks. Facing the Buccaneers in Week 5 is a great spot for Pitts, as their run defense should stymie any success for ATL on the ground.

WAS at DAL

• Curtis Samuel has out-targeted Terry McLaurin in every game this season, yet McLaurin has 104 air yards per game to Samuel’s 38. Jahan Dotson continues to be the clear third option, but has four TDs on the season to buoy his fantasy points. I am only comfortable starting Samuel/McLaurin going forward, and Dotson should remain a bench stash until his target volume increases.

• CeeDee Lamb has at least a 27% target share in every game this season. His peripherals suggest high-end WR1 production the rest of the 2022 season. Michael Gallup ran 24 routes to Lamb’s 29 in Week 4, so Lamb truly earned his 31% target share yesterday.

JAX at PHI

• Travis Etienne out-snapped James Robinson for the first time all season in Week 4. Both disappointed yesterday in fantasy, combining for 6.1 PPR points. It’s an interesting situation to monitor heading into Week 5, as JAX RBs totaled at least 24 fantasy points in the three prior games. Do not give up on Travis Etienne yet.

• AJ Brown is on pace for 1,717 receiving yards in 2022. He has 33% of the team’s red zone targets, and 44% of the team’s air yards. In the elite PHI scoring environment, expect more than one TD every four weeks moving forward.

BUF at BAL

• Devin Singletary has one of the best roles in all of fantasy football. After two games of a three-way RB committee, Singletary has handled 73% and 90% of the snaps in Weeks 3 and 4, along with 73% and 100% of the RB routes. He is a borderline Top-12 fantasy option moving forward.

• JK Dobbins only handled 13 of the 22 (59%) RB carries in Week 4, but nearly all the high value touches went his way. He was given five red zone carries (Justice Hill and Patrick Ricard had one each), all three goal line carries, and had the lone red zone target. He is a RB2 moving forward due to the Raven’s elite offense and Dobbins’ role as the clear red zone/goal line back. Rest of season, I prefer Dobbins to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, for context.

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ARI at CAR

• Christian McCaffrey was finally a focal point of the Panthers’ pass attack in Week 4, totaling nine targets, catching all of them for 81 yards. While he had a season-low eight carries, he topped 25 fantasy points for the first time all season. This is the type of role that can keep him healthy week-to-week, and the exact role that scores fantasy points.

• Marquise Brown is a Top-12 WR option moving forward, and not someone I would consider selling due to DeAndre Hopkins’ return in Week 7. Brown has at least 100 air yards or at least 11 targets in every game this season, and Hopkins’ return should boost the overall offense. I expect this to be a Tyreek Hill - Jaylen Waddle situation upon Hopkins’ return, where both can be highly fantasy relevant. Slight lean is actually still toward Brown, who is the younger, ascending player - Hopkins turned 30 this past summer.

DEN at LV

• Jerry Jeudy has not had more than 20% of the team’s targets in any game this season. It’s clear through four weeks that Courtland Sutton’s downfield skill set on the outside more closely aligns with Russell Wilson’s strengths. Jeudy is a sell in both redraft and dynasty, while he is still maintaining some value. Consider it a sell-medium since he did score in Week 4, as I expect his value to continue to decline.

• Josh Jacobs handled 28 of 30 RB carries and received all six RB targets in Week 4. He has also run the most RB routes on the team each of the past three weeks. The usage resembles that of high-end RB1s, and given that the Raiders declined his fifth year option, they have every incentive to continue to feed him heavy volume.

NE at GB

• The Patriots had 21 pass attempts to 33 rush attempts in Week 4, and I expect this to continue until Mac Jones returns. Both Rhamondre Stevenson (carries plus targets) and Damien Harris (more carries, including goal line work, yet few targets) should both be started in fantasy as the focal points of this offense.

• Romeo Doubs has back-to-back games with eight targets, and I would project him to out-produce Allen Lazard between now and the rest of the season. He has three of the team’s four red zone targets over the past two weeks, and is looking like a Top-24 WR rest of season.

KC at TB

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon each had a goal line rush attempt in Week 4. There were three other red zone carries in this game, and all went to Isiah Pacheco. While fantasy managers are scrambling to roster Mike Boone (DEN) and Nyheim Hines, put a small amount of FAAB towards Pacheco if he’s still on waivers. His role should only continue to grow rest of season.

• The Big-4 Tampa Bay WRs is really a Big-2 now that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both returned in Week 4. It’s unclear if Julio will gain more snaps/routes as he gets healthier, but I would assume Evans/Godwin are the only two viable WRs to start from TB each week.

Takeaways 31-33

• The Detroit Lions have averaged 35 points per game (No. 1 in the NFL), while allowing 35.3 points per game (No. 1 in the NFL). For fantasy, start Lions players, along with whoever they are playing. Confidently start Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris in Week 5 against DET.

• Multiple fantasy relevant WRs can come from the same team.

• Rashaad Penny is the RB24, at 11.7 fantasy points per game. DK Metcalf is the WR24, at 13.9 fantasy points per game. With each passing week, the balance is shifting in favor of WR for those playing in PPR/Half-PPR formats.

We hope you enjoyed reading Josh Larky's 33 Fantasy Takeaways from Week 4.

Watch More: Analytics vs. Gut

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.