NFL Analysis
1/30/24
8 min read
2024 NFL Free Agency: 5 Best Fits for Bengals WR Tee Higgins
Top wide receivers don’t hit free agency often. Those types of talents must either be acquired in the draft or traded for, usually before a rookie contract expires.
That makes the impending free agency of Tee Higgins fascinating. The Cincinnati Bengals gave out a massive extension to Joe Burrow this past offseason and have an inevitable extension for Ja’Marr Chase looming.
Those financial commitments have left Higgins’s future in question. There was some speculation Higgins could have been traded before the final year of his rookie deal during the 2023 offseason to get more of a return for him instead of letting him potentially leave in free agency.
Still, the front office was quick to shut that idea down. The Bengals held onto Higgins for the 2023 season which eventually saw Higgins and Burrow in and out of the lineup.
This past season did not go as planned for Cincinnati, and Higgins is slated to hit the market as the best free agent at the position we’ve seen in a while. Higgins has been a 1B option to Chase but could serve as an unquestioned No. 1 on most teams.
Higgins could shift the offense of whatever team he lands on, so let’s take a look at some of the best fits.
5 Best Free Agent Fits for Tee Higgins
Cincinnati Bengals
There’s a chance Higgins doesn’t go anywhere. That could still serve as the most favorable landing spot. Cincinnati has a projected $59 million in cap space, per Over The Cap, which would be the fourth-most among teams in 2024. The Bengals also have WR Tyler Boyd, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie and OT Jonah Williams slated to hit free agency.
Even with that, the Bengals could fit Higgins under the franchise tag, which is expected to be about $21.7 million, and delay any long-term options for another year.
The Bengals already started preparing for this possibility. Cincinnati cleared out some of the expensive and/or aging veterans on defense and replaced those positions in the draft during the past two seasons. That brought in the likes of safeties Dax Hill and Jordan Battle, and CBs Cam Taylor-Britt and D.J. Turner, who have played bigger roles in the secondary.
There was a hope defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo could develop those players and keep an efficient defense with younger players on rookie contracts. Then, most of the heavy spending could be done on the offense.
So much of the Cincinnati offense has revolved around having two dominant forces on the outside. So keeping Higgins while finding a replacement for the slot role could be the most appealing option for both parties.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Higgins could go down to Florida and reunite with his college quarterback, Trevor Lawrence.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense has lacked a commanding presence on the outside for the past few seasons. Calvin Ridley was supposed to be that, but it never fully clicked as intended during 2023.
Ridley ran the third-most routes for any wide receiver on the outside, per TruMedia, but was just 54th in yards per route run from that spot.
Lawrence was still 10th in expected points added (EPA) per play on throws outside the numbers with the third-highest average depth of target (aDOT) among quarterbacks (9.9) on those throws.
There was a clear shift in offensive production when Zay Jones was healthy to give another threat on the outside. Jones can be a useful player, but no team should want its offense hinging on his health.
Even if the Jaguars re-sign Ridley, also a free agent, Higgins presents a different body type and play style from what the Jaguars have on their roster. He combines a bigger frame with the ability to make contested catches and run after the catch. During the past three seasons, Higgins is 20th in receiving yards on throws outside the numbers.
Tee Higgins makes a spectacular catch with two defenders around him! #RuleTheJungle
— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2021
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Kansas City Chiefs
Many Kansas City Chiefs fans wanted this fit during the 2020 draft. Kansas City ended up drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd overall pick, and Higgins went 33rd to Cincinnati.
As the Chiefs head to the Super Bowl, again, they have figured out how to run the passing game through Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. However, there were struggles all season to find an answer outside of those two.
Patrick Mahomes was just 22nd in EPA per play among quarterbacks on throws outside the numbers with the fourth-lowest aDOT (6.5) on such throws.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson were the Kansas City wide receivers with the most routes run on the outside. Both finished with sub-1.0 yards per route run. Rice was the most-targeted receiver when lined up outside, and the most efficient. But much of that came from shallow crossing routes that allowed Rice to run after the catch.
Higgins would fill Valdes-Scantling's role of an outside receiver who could stretch the field. The added benefit is Higgins can actually be involved in the passing game as a target.
A Higgins-Kelce-Rice trio could be one of the more dangerous in the league.
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals could completely revamp their passing game by drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. and signing Higgins. Arizona’s receiving corps is one of the league's smallest with 5-foot-9 Marquise Brown (another pending free agent) and 5-foot-7 Rondale Moore as two of the more heavily involved options. Higgins (6-foot-4) and Harrison (6-foot-3) are the opposite.
Kyler Murray made the most of his time with DeAndre Hopkins lined up outside. Higgins could fill that type of role with some more versatility and movement, thanks to a less static offense run by offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.
Harrison and Higgins could serve as Arizona’s version of Higgins and Chase for a quarterback who has been at his best when he can throw deep. Add in TE Trey McBride, who finished second in yards per route run at the position in 2023, and the Cardinals would run out a monstrous trio that would be difficult for opposing defenses to match up with in size and speed.
Murray was rusty on throws of 11 or more air yards upon his return to the lineup last season — he was last in EPA per play and success rate — but he’s been a highly efficient deep thrower throughout his career. It could also help to widen the margin for error on those throws with the bigger bodies at receiver. It’s much different targeting Higgins down the field than it is Brown.
Arizona needs to match the offensive firepower of the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks in the division. It has a projected $42 million in cap space without many key free agents set to leave.
Houston Texans
No offense became more appealing to potential free agents over the course of the 2023 season than the Houston Texans’. Rookie C.J. Stroud's development made Houston a destination to watch for pass catchers looking for a new home.
AIR IT OUT 🔥 pic.twitter.com/NjLQxykfDa
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 13, 2024
The Texans have a budding star in Tank Dell, who missed the last chunk of the season due to a fractured fibula suffered in December. They also received a breakout season from Nico Collins, who finished second among wide receivers in yards per route run in 2023.
Noah Brown is scheduled to be a free agent, which could open up a spot for Higgins.
Houston had one of the lowest rates of 11 personnel last season (60.3 percent, 23rd) and opted to use 21 personnel at one of the league's highest rates. The Texans were just average in passing from 11 personnel and couldn’t run with three receivers on the field, but they often couldn’t run from any personnel.
Adding Higgins could open up more in the passing game. It also would add spacing to run the ball when needed, as the next evolution of the offense. Higgins already fits where Stroud thrived throwing as a rookie. Stroud was third in EPA per play (1.05) on throws of 11 or more air yards outside the numbers.
The Texans have the cap space to make this happen — about $58 million. However, they have several contracts expiring thanks to the barrage of short-term deals the team signed veterans to during the past two offseasons.
As a contender, Houston could choose to take the money and swing for a top-tier player like Higgins to change the way this roster will be built going forward.
