Betting
1/17/24
6 min read
2024 NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
Below, you’ll find best bets for each game of the Divisional Round. The team of Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Ahaan Rungta, Samantha Previte and Patrick H. are working to find the best player prop bets and will be posting them in this article.
You can also find all our plays in our FREE Discord, in the prop-bets channel.
Top Divisional Round Player Props
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -9.5
Game Total: 43.5
Nico Collins UNDER 82.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
It’s terrifying to bet against C.J. Stroud’s passing attack, but this is a very high number for a game that should have freezing temperatures in Baltimore. Nico Collins has topped this number in his past two games, but overall, he’s been under in 10 of 16 games. Even with teams passing 37 times per game against the Ravens (second-most), wide receivers averaged just 139 receiving yards per game (25th) against them. Collins will be playing in cold against a tough secondary, and sportsbooks are projecting just 34-35 pass attempts for Stroud as a result. This is a number that all but five teams breached when facing Baltimore in 2023, indicating weather is a legitimate concern.
Isaiah Likely OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
This number is 37.5 on DraftKings already and 36.5 with heavy juice to the over (-125) in other places. Mark Andrews has been ruled out for this game, and Isaiah Likely has cleared this number in five of his past six games, with the lone miss being 31 yards. Houston is a top-five matchup for tight ends, and this line probably closes in the high 30s or low 40s.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -9.5
Game Total: 50.5
Aaron Jones UNDER 16.5 Rush Attempts
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
This line is currently -130 on FanDuel, which is a massive odds discrepancy. Aaron Jones has at least 20 carries for 111 rushing yards in each of his past four games, but digging into each game provides valuable context. Those four games were:
- A 33-30 win against a run-funnel Panthers team
- A 33-10 blowout win against the Vikings
- A 17-9 win against the Bears
- The 48-32 dismantling of the Cowboys last week
Turning to the Green Bay Packers’ Divisional Round opponent, the 49ers have allowed just one running back all season to exceed 16.5 carries. That was Jerome Ford, who had 17 carries in a 19-17 upset win for Cleveland. The Packers are 9.5-point underdogs this week, so game script should not be in Jones’ favor.
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Romeo Doubs UNDER 38.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
It’s always concerning to bet against a player who just racked up 151 receiving yards, especially when their prop is just 38.5 yards the week after. However, multiple factors are working in our favor here. Christian Watson only ran eight routes last week and should be more heavily integrated into the offense. Additionally, Romeo Doubs had been far less efficient than Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton during the second half of the season. Including last week’s explosion game, Doubs has been under 38.5 yards in 12 of 18 games this season.
Brandon Aiyuk Alt Lines: 100+ Yards, 110+ Yards, 120+ Yards
Best Odds: +310, +425, +600 on DraftKings
Brandon Aiyuk has reached 100 yards in seven of his 16 games (44 percent) this season. He’s reached 110 yards in six games and 120 yards in four. The Packers defense has been susceptible to big plays in the passing game, and the odds for the Aiyuk ladder don’t match up with the San Francisco 49ers offense this season or Aiyuk’s 2023 production.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 89.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey suffered a mild calf injury in Week 17 against the Washington Commanders, which sidelined him for a meaningless Week 18 with the No. 1 seed in the NFC already in the bag. The good news is that he will have had two full weeks of rest, including the San Francisco 49ers’ first-round bye, and should be more than good to go against the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round.
McCaffrey is coming off of his second 2,000+ scrimmage yard season of his career and scored a career-best 21 touchdowns in 16 games. He would have gone over this total in roughly 53 percent of games this year and every game since Week 12 (excluding the game in which he was injured). He should have a strong chance this week with the Packers on deck, whose run defense has been subpar all year. Bettors could even consider ladder betting McCaffrey’s rushing yards to spice things up: 100+ yards is +126, 125+ yards is +280, and 150+ yards is +630 on FanDuel, too.
Jonathan Owens OVER 5.5 tackles + assists
Best Odds: -130 on ESPN (Bet placed in the Discord at +100 earlier in the week)
Jonathan Owens went over this number in seven out of 11 regular season games when he played a full complement of snaps. The four times he went under were against teams ranked 20th or worst in tackles allowed to safeties on the season.
He was a backup to start the year who moved into the starting lineup due to injury and played so well that he kept the starting safety job after Rudy Ford returned from injury. The 49ers were a top-five matchup for safeties, allowing 15.8 tackles per game. They allowed 22 safeties to go over this number this season. Our model has this going over around 69 percent of the time.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -6.5
Game Total: 48.5
Baker Mayfield OVER 253.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Baker Mayfield has beaten this number in four of his last five games, and he’s gone over 300 in three of those contests. You can’t really run on the Detroit Lions, but you can throw on them. The Lions have given up at least 340 passing yards in each of their last four games, including 807 total passing yards to Nick Mullens in two of those games.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offensive line is well-positioned to mitigate Detroit’s pass rush. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are both in good matchups. Mayfield himself has been red-hot and just lit up the Philadelphia Eagles pass defense in the wild-card round. Mayfield is averaging 290 passing yards per game over the past five weeks and is coming off a 337-yard game. His recent momentum and the ideal matchup make us lean over here.
Rachaad White UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on ESPN Bet
Rachaad White recorded a very solid Year 2 breakout season. He rushed for 990 yards, tacked on 549 yards through the air and solidified his role as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ clear-cut RB1. White performed better than expected last week, tallying 75 scrimmage yards on 19 touches against a top-notch Eagles defense and faces an even more formidable opponent this week.
As mentioned above, the Lions are exceptionally vulnerable against the pass but have also been stout against the run. Their defense allowed the fewest rushing yards and the second-fewest rushing attempts to running backs this year. When these two teams first met in Week 6, White was completely stymied and rushed for a season-low 26 yards. Bettors should expect another quiet day for White on the road in Ford Field, especially in a game where the Buccaneers are touchdown underdogs.
Chris Godwin OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
In the regular season, the Lions defense ranked No. 26 in dropback EPA per play allowed, and recently, they have tried to mitigate the issue by bracketing No. 1 options. This has opened up the doors for No. 2 options to flat-out dominate. Secondary pass-catcher receiving yards vs. Detroit since Week 13: Alvin Kamara had 58, Cole Kmet had 66, Jerry Jeudy had 74, TJ Hockenson had 58, K.J. Osborn had 95, Brandin Cooks had 60, Jordan Addison reached 57 and Puka Nacua just had 181.
Chris Godwin averages 57 receiving yards per 32 Mayfield throws and Mayfield’s pass attempts are set at 34.5 in this game. The Buccaneers are an underdog, and this game is indoors. Detroit’s run defense is strong and passing should be plentiful and efficient. This line probably closes in the 60s.
Jared Goff OVER 270.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
You beat the Buccaneers through the air, not on the ground. When these teams played earlier in the season, Jared Goff threw for 353 yards in a 20-6 win. Goff has thrived at home this season, topping this number in six of nine games. Quarterbacks against Tampa Bay are just 9-9 to the over, but the ones who missed are lesser passers than Goff — Justin Fields, Bryce Young twice, Derek Carr twice, Desmond Ridder, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew and then Jalen Hurts without AJ Brown last week.
David Montgomery UNDER 57.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
You throw on Tampa Bay to beat them, and as we saw last week, Todd Bowles brings heat. David Montgomery didn't finish the first contest between these teams. The Lions won 20-6, yet ran for just 40 yards on 22 carries. Nose tackle Vita Vea owns the A gap to the point he is the answer to how do we beat the Brotherly Shove. It seems like Jahmyr Gibbs has a better opportunity to break off chunk plays running to the outside. Montgomery has gone under this number in four of his last seven, including three of his past four. He only blew this number out of the water against Denver recently.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -2.5
Game Total: 45
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown
Best Odds: +100 on Caesar’s
This should rarely be plus-money and it’s already -120 or -125 on other sportsbooks. Josh Allen is the Buffalo Bills’ No. 1 option at the goal line. In the regular season, he was No. 2 in the NFL in red zone carries and No. 1 in carries inside the 10 since coming off the bye in Week 13. Buffalo’s implied team total is 24. Allen has scored in 13 of 18 games this season and in nine of 12 when Buffalo scores 22 or more points. Kansas City has a strong pass defense but terrible run defense, and James Cook has never had the profile of a good goal-line back; Allen being the top option at the goal line is nowhere near a coincidence.
