Analysis
11/4/23
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 9 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
Week 9 DFS Slate Analysis
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB Lamar Jackson WR Zay Flowers TE Mark Andrews
- Runback: WR Tyler Lockett OR WR DK Metcalf And RB Zach Charbonnet
Currently, Jalen Hurts' rushing capabilities are somewhat limited, making Lamar Jackson the more enticing choice among top-tier quarterbacks. If you aim to incorporate Hurts into your lineup, A.J. Brown is an appealing option to capitalize on his reduced rushing contributions. Additionally, consider D'Andre Swift, who can exploit the Dallas Cowboys' vulnerability to ground attacks.
The Seattle Seahawks have primarily used Cover 3 and Cover 4 against running quarterbacks this year. Jackson has excelled in both scenarios, averaging 10.3 yards per attempt against Cover 3 and 9.6 yards per attempt against Cover 4. These figures rank in the top 90 percentile in terms of efficiency. To maximize Jackson's potential, consider double stacking with his top targets, Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers.
Choosing between Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf can be challenging, largely depending on the game script. If the Baltimore Ravens establish an early offensive dominance, Lockett will see more receptions against the Ravens' zone coverage looks. On the other hand, if the Seahawks take the lead, expect the Ravens to play more aggressively with man coverage. In this scenario, pairing Metcalf with Zach Charbonnet is advantageous, as it aligns with a game script where the Seahawks can play balanced football and capitalize on play-action deep shots with Metcalf.
- Stack: QB Dak Prescott WR CeeDee Lamb TE Jake Ferguson
- Runback: WR AJ Brown OR RB D’Andre Swift
The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have been deploying a lot of man coverage recently. Both quarterbacks have excelled against man coverage, but given Hurts' knee injury and the pricing, Dak Prescott is the preferred choice in this matchup.
Prescott's potential is closely linked to CeeDee Lamb, who had a phenomenal game against the Eagles in their last meeting. Lamb's ability to beat any cornerback and favorable matchups bode well for a strong performance.
Prescott has been targeting tight ends in the red zone against the Eagles, with Dalton Schultz being the usual beneficiary throughout the previous years. This year, it's Jake Ferguson's turn to shine. While Kevin Byard improves the Eagles' middle-of-the-field coverage, he's still adapting to the scheme, and the Cowboys are likely to test him.
- Stack: QB C.J. Stroud WR Nico Collins WR Tank Dell
Last weekend, C.J. Stroud faced some challenges, largely due to the Carolina Panthers' limiting his opportunities against single-high coverage while effectively shutting down the run game, forcing them into unfavorable situations. This week, it's unlikely that Todd Bowles will stray from his team's identity, which heavily utilizes Cover 3 coverages.
Against this look, two key players will be in the spotlight: Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who have assumed full-time roles without Robert Woods. They are targeted on approximately 28 percent and 29 percent of their routes against Cover 3 coverage, boasting impressive yards per route run averages.
Additionally, the absence of Dameon Pierce this weekend leaves Devin Singletary as the primary running back option. If you're looking for a cost-effective running back to complement this stack, swapping Dell for Singletary is a viable choice.
I don't recommend forcing a run-back strategy in this scenario, primarily because the Houston Texans boast a strong defense, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pass catchers come with a hefty price tag, which isn't necessary for Stroud to have a standout day at his current price point.
- Stack: QB Derek Carr WR Chris Olave WR Rashid Shaheed
- Runback: WR DJ Moore (If Justin Fields plays)
Derek Carr, priced below $6,000, stands out as my preferred cheap quarterback option for the weekend. Recent weeks have seen the Chicago Bears deploy more single-high coverage, aligning with Carr's ceiling and giving the green light to push the ball downfield. This means Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed could have big days through the air.
Olave is having an underwhelming year by his own standards, but this matchup provides an ideal opportunity for him to excel, especially against single-high coverage schemes. He maintains the highest target share on the team and ranks just behind Shaheed in yards per route run against this look this year.
Shaheed, while not expected to see an abundance of targets, has the potential to make the most of them and elevate Carr's ceiling significantly. Shaheed is one of the fastest players in the NFL, and it doesn’t take much for him to have a big day.
Furthermore, the New Orleans Saints have been making great use of Alvin Kamara, and the Bears have shown vulnerabilities in defending pass-catching running backs. Incorporating Kamara into Carr stacks is a viable strategy. Still, it also serves as a pivot from the common approach and directly correlates to Carr's potential for a high-ceiling performance.
Mini-Stacks
- New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders
- RB Saquon Barkley WR Davante Adams
Daniel Jones is returning from a neck injury, and Saquon Barkley, who had more than 30 touches in the last game, is expected to see a similar workload in this matchup. The Las Vegas Raiders have struggled recently, allowing two consecutive running backs to score more than 30 DraftKings points. The week prior, the Patriots' running back duo combined for 29.9 points. Barkley is in line for a heavy workload, and I anticipate he'll have a standout performance against the Raiders' defense.
As for the passing game, targeting Davante Adams is a challenging task, but there are enough cost-effective options to build a mini-stack. Adams is set to face rookie cornerback Deonte Banks, who has had an impressive season. However, Adams boasts the most polished release skills, and I envision Aidan O’Connell looking his way early and frequently.
- Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers
- RB Jonathan Taylor WR Jonathan Mingo
Last weekend, Jonathan Taylor saw his highest percentage of snaps all season, recording 13 touches for 97 yards, albeit with limited work in the second half. In this upcoming game, expect Taylor will receive the most touches he's had all year, given the Carolina Panthers' vulnerability to running backs, having allowed four different RBs to score two or more rushing touchdowns.
The potential absence of DJ Chark for the Panthers could create a significant opportunity for Jonathan Mingo, who stands to have a big impact on this game. Notably, the Indianapolis Colts are currently missing their top boundary cornerback, Juju Brents, and their most proficient cornerback operates in the slot. With Mingo consistently running a route on nearly every dropback, he's positioned for a favorable matchup, adding to his appeal for this matchup.
One-Offs
- NE Wide Receiver
The Washington Commanders have struggled significantly when defending against vertical routes, ranking as the weakest team in the NFL in this aspect. The New England Patriots face a challenging situation with Kendrick Bourne's ACL tear and DeVante Parker's concussion, leaving them with a somewhat uncertain group of pass catchers. While Demario Douglas, priced at $4,000, has been the popular choice due to his recent consistent production, he primarily operates from the slot. The way the Commanders have been beaten has been out wide, a different player comes to mind. JuJu Smith-Schuster's in a spot to have a chance at some big plays with him playing out wide and running a lot of vertical routes.
- RB Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson was on the field for 72.7 percent of the offensive snaps. With Drake London out, Robinson is poised to take center stage as the featured player. Despite the Minnesota Vikings boasting a formidable run defense, have confidence in Robinson's abilities and anticipate he can deliver strong performance at a reasonable, mid-tier price point.
- WR Christian Watson
The Los Angeles Rams are struggling to defend deep routes along the boundary. Christian Watson stands out as the primary target for these vertical routes, having been consistently targeted more frequently than any other receiver on this particular route.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Lamar Jackson | BAL | SEA | $8,200 | $8,600 |
| QB | Jalen Hurts | PHI | DAL | $8,000 | $9,000 |
| QB | Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | $6,500 | $8,200 |
| QB | C.J. Stroud | HOU | TB | $6,200 | $7,000 |
| QB | Derek Carr | NO | CHI | $5,700 | $7,100 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | NO | CHI | $8,100 | $9,200 |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | NYG | LV | $7,900 | $8,600 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | LV | NYG | $6,900 | $7,500 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | DAL | PHI | $6,800 | $6,600 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | PHI | DAL | $6,600 | $7,200 |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor | IND | CAR | $6,400 | $8,000 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | MIN | $6,100 | $7,100 |
| RB | Gus Edwards | BAL | SEA | $5,900 | $7,100 |
| RB | Zack Moss | IND | CAR | $5,800 | $6,700 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | IND | $5,000 | $6,500 |
| RB | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | BAL | $4,300 | $5,200 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | HOU | TB | $4,300 | $5,300 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | PHI | DAL | $8,600 | $9,000 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | PHI | $8,200 | $8,800 |
| WR | Davante Adams | LV | NYG | $8,100 | $8,000 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | CAR | IND | $7,500 | $8,300 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LA | GB | $7,400 | $7,500 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | HOU | $7,300 | $7,400 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | PHI | DAL | $7,100 | $7,000 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | TB | HOU | $7,000 | $6,700 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | SEA | BAL | $6,900 | $7,200 |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | CAR | $6,600 | $7,300 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | CHI | $6,300 | $6,900 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | SEA | BAL | $6,200 | $6,900 |
| WR | Amari Cooper | CLE | ARI | $6,100 | $6,800 |
| WR | DJ Moore | CHI | NO | $5,900 | $7,600 |
| WR | Nico Collins | HOU | TB | $5,800 | $6,800 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | BAL | SEA | $5,700 | $4,500 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | CLE | $5,400 | $6,700 |
| WR | Tank Dell | HOU | TB | $5,300 | $5,800 |
| WR | Christian Watson | GB | LA | $4,900 | $6,000 |
| WR | Michael Thomas | NO | CHI | $4,700 | $5,900 |
| WR | Rashid Shaheed | NO | CHI | $4,500 | $6,200 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | DAL | PHI | $4,400 | $5,600 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | BAL | $4,300 | $5,500 |
| WR | Demario Douglas | NE | WAS | $4,000 | $5,400 |
| WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL | SEA | $3,800 | $5,200 |
| WR | DJ Chark Jr. | CAR | IND | $3,700 | $5,500 |
| WR | Michael Gallup | DAL | PHI | $3,600 | $5,300 |
| WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | LV | $3,500 | $5,300 |
| WR | Jonathan Mingo | CAR | IND | $3,400 | $5,100 |
| WR | Jamison Crowder | WAS | NE | $3,400 | $5,300 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | BAL | SEA | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| WR | Darius Slayton | NYG | LV | $3,200 | $5,400 |
| WR | Noah Brown | HOU | TB | $3,100 | $4,800 |
| WR | JuJu Smith-Schuster | NE | WAS | $3,100 | $5,200 |
| WR | Jalen Reagor | NE | WAS | $3,000 | $4,200 |
| WR | Tyquan Thornton | NE | WAS | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| WR | Kayshon Boutte | NE | WAS | $3,000 | $4,100 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | LV | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | BAL | SEA | $6,800 | $7,500 |
| TE | Dallas Goedert | PHI | DAL | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| TE | Kyle Pitts | ATL | MIN | $4,100 | $5,200 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | DAL | PHI | $4,000 | $5,100 |
| TE | Hunter Henry | NE | WAS | $3,600 | $5,100 |
| TE | Luke Musgrave | GB | LA | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| TE | Cade Otton | TB | HOU | $3,000 | $4,900 |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | NO | CHI | $2,900 | $4,500 |
| TE | Mike Gesicki | NE | WAS | $2,600 | $4,700 |
| TE | Daniel Bellinger | NYG | LV | $2,500 | $4,300 |
| DST | Patriots | NE | WAS | $2,900 | $3,700 |
| DST | Packers | GB | LA | $2,800 | $3,900 |
| DST | Cardinals | ARI | CLE | $2,700 | $3,400 |
| DST | Rams | LA | GB | $2,600 | $3,300 |
| DST | Giants | NYG | LV | $2,300 | $4,000 |
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