Analysis

11/2/23

10 min read

2023 NFL Week 9: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will enable you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 9.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth Down Decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

Week 9 Matchups

Titans vs. Steelers

Fourth-down decisions: Titans third, Steelers 30th

Will Levis will make his second career start on Thursday night and look to duplicate his dynamic debut performance from last weekend against one of the league’s premier pass rushes.

New starting LT Nicholas Petit-Frere has been dinged for seven blown blocks on only 88 snaps this season and will have his hands full keeping Levis clean against the NFL’s sixth-ranked pass rush unit that features star edge rushers, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. 

Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Fourth-down decisions: Dolphins 15th, Chiefs 26th

Arguably, the best game of the week comes with an early kickoff from Frankfurt, Germany. The Miami Dolphins come into this game with the top ranking in Total Points per play in the run game (and overall offense), while Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs’ top-ranked passing offense by Total Points per play.

Both defenses boast pass rush units ranked in our top five, and they will be key in slowing down the high-powered offenses across from them.

Vikings vs. Falcons

Fourth-down decisions: Vikings 17th, Falcons 16th

This matchup has both teams’ backup quarterbacks as Jaren Hall and Taylor Heinicke make their first starts of the season. Hall might need to carry a bigger load than desired in his first career start. The Minnesota Vikings have an uninspired rush offense that ranks in the bottom five among all teams this year. At the same time, the Atlanta Falcons will trot out our second-ranked run defense by Total Points per play. 

Seahawks vs. Ravens

Fourth-down decisions: Seahawks 23rd, Ravens 25th

This game should be a slug-fest in Baltimore, as two of the more physical teams in the league face off this week. The Seattle Seahawks rank in the top 10 in Total Points per play in run defense, pass rush and pass coverage. They will look to slow down a Baltimore Ravens offense led by one of the NFL’s premier signal-callers, Lamar Jackson.

Cardinals vs. Browns

Fourth-down decisions: Cardinals fifth, Browns 14th

Whom either of these teams will start at quarterback in this game is seemingly still yet to be decided. Still, the biggest focus on this game will be how the Arizona Cardinals offense fares against the daunting Cleveland Browns defense.

Whether it is Kyler Murray making his return from injury or the fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune making his first career start, this scrappy Cardinals team will have their work cut out for them on offense. 

Rams vs. Packers

Fourth-down decisions: Rams 11th, Packers second

This game could be a major snooze fest if Matthew Stafford can't play because of his thumb injury. The Green Bay Packers offense has looked dreadful throughout the season after a respectable start, and the Los Angeles Rams could look similar if they are forced to start Brett Rypien.

The Rams still have our 10th-ranked rush offense and have a favorable matchup against the Packers’ rush defense that ranks in the league's bottom quartile. It might be best just to catch the highlights of this game, though. 

Buccaneers vs. Texans

Fourth-down decisions: Bucs 28th, Texans eighth

The Houston Texans have been a pleasant surprise and look to have a solid foundation in place for the future. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a feisty team with a solid defensive backfield. They will have their hands full against the Texans’ offense, with C.J. Stroud throwing to the NFL's fifth-ranked receiving unit by Total Points per play. 

The Texans will be without veteran WR Robert Woods. He could miss the next couple of games, but they got Noah Brown back a week ago, which should help minimize Woods' absence. In a game that appears to be closely contested, the mismatch in fourth-down decision-making in the Texans’ favor might have an impact if this one goes down to the wire. 

Commanders vs. Patriots

Fourth-down decisions: Commanders 18th, Patriots 21st

The Washington Commanders were major sellers at the trade deadline, dealing both sides of their top-tier pass rushing tandem in Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Both teams bring in miserable pass rush units, so young quarterbacks Sam Howell and Mac Jones should have plenty of opportunity to throw the ball against middling pass coverage defenses. 

Bears vs. Saints

Fourth-down decisions: Bears 13th, Saints 24th

With Justin Fields likely still out, rookie Tyson Bagent will be under center against the New Orleans Saints and their top-ranked pass coverage. Derek Carr has been well short of spectacular but will look to take advantage of a Chicago Bears defense that is next-to-last in Pass Rush Total Points per play in 2023. With this game being played at the Superdome, it would be surprising if the Saints lost. 

Colts vs. Panthers

Fourth-down decisions: Colts 31st, Panthers fourth

In a game many circled at the beginning of the season as a matchup between highly drafted rookie quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew will instead lead the Indianapolis Colts’ offense against No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers.

This game has a high potential to be a gross watch. Adam Thielen has been great this season and will have plenty of opportunity to keep that up against a beat-up Colts secondary that lacks talent and bodies. This could be a key game deciding draft order at the end of the season. 

Giants vs. Raiders

Fourth-down decisions: Giants 29th, Raiders N/A

The Las Vegas Raiders cleaned house earlier this week and have a fresh face at head coach, general manager and starting quarterback. Rookie Aidan O’Connell will lead the Raiders against a New York Giants team that has been a major disappointment after fighting their way to a playoff win last season.

The Giants should get Daniel Jones back this week, which will help but is not likely to help the entertainment value of this matchup.

Cowboys vs. Eagles

Fourth-down decisions: Cowboys 12th, Eagles first

This NFC East battle between the sixth- and ninth-ranked teams in overall Total Points is one most fans will want to tune in to. In a game that will play a major factor in the playoff picture and divisional race, the teams are fairly evenly matched when it comes to blocking, run defense and pass rush Total Points.

The Dallas Cowboys have made a more concerted effort to get star WR CeeDee Lamb the ball over the past two weeks, and his impact will be needed as the Cowboys try to take advantage of a middling pass coverage defense to steal a win in a hostile environment. 

Bills vs. Bengals

Fourth-down decisions: Bills 10th, Bengals 19th

Sunday night has a great one on deck, with two Lamar Hunt Trophy hopefuls squaring off in a dynamic matchup. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will look to exploit a Buffalo Bills defense that could be vulnerable after the losses of Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White but added starting CB Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline.

Josh Allen has been nursing a shoulder injury in recent weeks. However, it shouldn't affect his availability against a Bengals defense that is middle of the pack in pass coverage but is ranked in the top 10 in pass rush. Any way you slice it, this game is a must-watch and should bring the juice. 

Chargers vs. Jets

Fourth-down decisions: Chargers 20th, Jets 22nd

The Los Angeles Chargers took advantage of a lowly matchup against the Bears last week but have a physical and hard-nosed opponent in the New York Jets. Los Angeles is terrible when it comes to running the football, even after Austin Ekeler’s return from injury. The Chargers rank in the bottom three among all NFL teams.

Meanwhile, the Jets bring in a respectable 11th-ranked run defense by Total Points. Struggling backup QB Zach Wilson will have his opportunity to get on track. The Chargers' defense ranks 23rd in pass rush and a terrible 29th in pass coverage so far. This should be a competitive showing for fans on Monday night.

This article was authored by Jeremy Percy. 

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Sports Info Solutions

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