6 min read

2023 NFL Week 18 Fantasy Football Projections

Week 18 Fantasy Football Projections

At The 33rd Team, we use machine learning to project player performance and fantasy production week-to-week to help you make well-informed decisions about your lineups. In last week’s article, we were notably higher than the consensus on Jake Browning (finished QB7) and notably lower than the consensus on Ezekiel Elliott (finished RB27) and Calvin Ridley (finished WR50).

Below are the model’s projections for Week 18 by position. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, their projected points in half-PPR and PPR leagues and their projected rank. Some short commentary is provided for some notable players for whom the model is well ahead of consensus.

Disclaimer: We do not recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.

Week 18 Projections


TeamPlayerAttsCompYardsTDsRushesYardsTDsFantasy PointsFantasy Points (PPR)
Buffalo BillsJosh Allen36.925.82662.25.2250.422.522.5
Philadelphia EaglesJalen Hurts3221.8247.11.510.749.70.622.422.4
Dallas CowboysDak Prescott33.824.5293.42.42.410.
Chicago BearsJustin Fields36.722241.21.47.643.70.319.719.7
Minnesota VikingsNick Mullens38.522.2265.42.11.711.1018.118.1
Cincinnati BengalsJake Browning36.422.82151.
Arizona CardinalsKyler Murray29.920.2206.
Washington CommandersSam Howell43.424.1256.31.53.721.80.116.516.5
Houston TexansC.J. Stroud33.921.2224.
Green Bay PackersJordan Love33.220.820923.814.40.216.716.7
Seattle SeahawksGeno Smith32.320.2240.
Los Angeles ChargersEaston Stick35.620.5214.31.75.325.
Carolina PanthersBryce Young38.922.42361.62.413.2015.315.3
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaker Mayfield33.121.3225.
Indianapolis ColtsGardner Minshew34.720.8238.31.41.580.114.814.8
Detroit LionsJared Goff35.619.6210.51.90.710.114.814.8
Miami DolphinsTua Tagovailoa33.520.9225.
Jacksonville JaguarsTrevor Lawrence35.421.2227.
New Orleans SaintsDerek Carr3522.8221.
San Francisco 49ersSam Darnold30.218.1226.
Atlanta FalconsTaylor Heinicke33.419.2209.
Kansas City ChiefsBlaine Gabbert38.822.3208.
Los Angeles RamsCarson Wentz36.321.8220.
Las Vegas RaidersAidan O'Connell3018205.
New York GiantsTyrod Taylor30.919.3200.
Cleveland BrownsJeff Driskel35.319.4224.
Denver BroncosJarrett Stidham31.318.8162.11.61.810.9012.612.6
Pittsburgh SteelersMason Rudolph34.719.9198.
Tennessee TitansRyan Tannehill33.319.52041.
New England PatriotsBailey Zappe35.820.6154.
New York JetsTrevor Siemian3018.8159.
Baltimore RavensTyler Huntley28.318.4102.80.73.317.

Easton Stick (QB12)

The Chargers look for one final bit of vengeance against the Chiefs for some pride to close the regular season and will have to do so with backup Easton Stick, who has thrown for 215-plus passing yards in each of his last three games but is coming off back to back games without a single passing touchdown. That streak should end this week against a Chiefs team resting several starters. Stick's big play ability, combined with his rushing upside, gives him a fantasy QB1-tier upside in Week 18.

Running backs

PlayerRushesYardsTDsTargetsRecYardsTDsFantasy PointsFantasy Points (PPR)
Travis Etienne20.983.
Alvin Kamara15.952.30.475.946.70.216.519.5
Jonathan Taylor23.987.
Bijan Robinson1570.
Kenneth Walker III18.986.
Rachaad White1766.
Joe Mixon13500.55.5435.70.214.816.8
Tony Pollard19.
Aaron Jones15.
Jaylen Warren14.
Raheem Mostert14.577.
Saquon Barkley18.
James Conner15.474.
Elijah Mitchell15.654.80.732.
Derrick Henry14.656.
Ezekiel Elliott17.
Breece Hall14.839.
Devin Singletary11.747.
Javonte Williams11.9470.24.73.519.90.311.613.4
James Cook14.459.
Austin Ekeler10.7430.24.42.624.30.210.712
D'Andre Swift13.562.
Zamir White17.3790.
Tyjae Spears8.840.60.253.628.
Kyren Williams5.
Devon Achane7.945.
Chuba Hubbard16.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire10.345.70.22.9218.
Ty Chandler14.348.
Jahmyr Gibbs5.926.
Jerome Ford10.643.
Antonio Gibson7.329.
D'Onta Foreman7.634.
Royce Freeman10.
David Montgomery7.3290.61.617.907.98.4
Tyler Allgeier937.
Samaje Perine4.11603.93.432.
Brian Robinson Jr.1140.902.21.51806.97.7
Jerick McKinnon5.
Kareem Hunt7.929.
Khalil Herbert5.525.
Justice Hill4.918.
Roschon Johnson5.520.
Rico Dowdle832.
Alexander Mattison5.522.30.12.928.
Jaleel McLaughlin314.503.
Kenneth Gainwell3.917.
Chase Brown4.318.
Gus Edwards4.9200.21.4113.3055.5
Zach Charbonnet3.816.
D'Ernest Johnson2.912.
Joshua Kelley5.3200.
Miles Sanders4.816.

Kenneth Walker III (RB5)

Ever since Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III came back from injury, his snap share has been reduced, and he has only ranked as a top-12 running back once in that span. With Seattle’s season on the line in Week 18, that could change, and Walker draws a matchup made in heaven against one of the NFL’s worst rush defenses this season. The Seahawks’ matchup against the Cardinals could be one of the few shootouts of the slate, giving Walker great upside on the ground and at the goal line.

Elijah Mitchell (RB14)

Although the 49ers have nothing to play for in Week 18 and will start Sam Darnold, their lead running back Elijah Mitchell still holds upside as he will face a Rams defense at home that is far from invincible. Mitchell is in line to be a workhorse with Christian McCaffrey already ruled out, and San Francisco’s offense could still look surgical, giving the back top-12 ceiling at the position.

Wide Receivers

PlayerTargetsRecYardsTDsFantasy PointsFantasy Points (PPR)
CeeDee Lamb10.17.4111.10.72023.7
Tyreek Hill10.97.675.80.614.918.7
Mike Evans9.15.384.90.514.216.9
Stefon Diggs96.277.90.514.217.3
Nico Collins8.55.578.30.513.516.3
DJ Moore10.
A.J. Brown8.85.975.70.413.216.1
DK Metcalf8.94.773.10.613.115.4
Justin Jefferson9.66.367.50.512.715.9
Terry McLaurin9.86.770.40.312.415.7
Michael Pittman Jr.8.76.1740.312.215.3
DeAndre Hopkins9.2575.40.412.214.7
DeVonta Smith7.
Chris Godwin8.35.358.40.411.313.9
Adam Thielen9.35.8600.411.114
Drake London85.460.80.41113.7
Davante Adams8.34.555.50.510.913.2
Ja'Marr Chase8.24.858.40.410.813.2
Chris Olave8.8559.90.410.813.3
Calvin Ridley7.24.860.30.310.513
Tyler Lockett6.54.650.20.510.512.8
Brandin Cooks5.
Curtis Samuel7.65.450.30.39.612.3
Jayden Reed5.
Rashid Shaheed6.13.754.70.29.311.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.
Jakobi Meyers6.83.752.50.39.211
Josh Downs7.84.352.50.3911.2
Jordan Addison6.
Garrett Wilson95470.38.911.4
George Pickens6.93.648.10.38.810.6
Demarcus Robinson6.43.6580.28.810.6
Jerry Jeudy5.
Christian Watson6.63.344.30.48.710.4
Wan'Dale Robinson6.94.541.20.38.710.9
Diontae Johnson7.84.548.40.38.710.9
Ronnie Bell5.33.648.50.289.8
Jonathan Mingo7.
Courtland Sutton74.952.207.710.1
Josh Reynolds5.33.3430.37.69.2
Demario Douglas6.33.939.
Amon-Ra St. Brown7.15.2290.37.510.1
Gabe Davis4.62.839.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling4.82.648.
Khalil Shakir4.62.843.30.278.4
Dontayvion Wicks5339.
DJ Chark4.
Parker Washington5.
Romeo Doubs53.436.
Cooper Kupp4.52.641.
John Metchie III4.22.8280.46.57.8
Michael Wilson4.52.940.
Darius Slayton4.
Quentin Johnston5.
Deebo Samuel32.
DeVante Parker5.
Jahan Dotson4.32.832.
Rondale Moore4.52.826.
Robbie Chosen5.
Marquise Brown5.22.729.90.367.4
Puka Nacua4.52.6360.25.87.1
Justin Watson5.8332.
Zay Jones4.4325.
Alec Pierce3.52.334.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine4.22.329.
Trey Palmer42.623.70.35.77
Tyler Boyd5.53.325.
Cedric Tillman5.3329.
K.J. Osborn3.92.318.
Rashod Bateman3.52.4330.15.16.3
Jalen Tolbert4.22.426.
Jalen Guyton5.32.719.
Robert Woods4.22.424.80.256.2
Greg Dortch3.72.728.
Michael Gallup2.51.831.
Jalin Hyatt3.91.831.
Kalif Raymond3.42.1280.14.45.5
Brandon Aiyuk32.317.
Xavier Gipson32.
Marvin Mims Jr.3.11.9220.13.94.8
Rashee Rice2.9221.
JuJu Smith-Schuster4.5322.703.85.3
Treylon Burks3.31.721.
D.J. Montgomery3.51.914.
Brandon Powell3.92.515.
Trenton Irwin1.81.314.
Hunter Renfrow2.31.612.
Deonte Harty1.81.1100.12.43
Nelson Agholor1.4114.
Isaiah Hodgins2.
Allen Robinson1.718.
DeAndre Carter0.
Quez Watkins0.80.54.301.41.6
Allen Lazard0.
Danny Gray0.
Zach Pascal1.50.95.401.21.6
Calvin Austin III1.30.76.7011.4
Parris Campbell0.60.42.4011.2
Ben Skowronek0.90.63.900.91.2

Jordan Addison (WR29)

Rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison has been the definition of boom-or-bust, but the results have usually not been his fault. Although the quarterback roulette of the Minnesota Vikings has plagued consistency in their offense, Addison has remained one of the top red zone targets in the league and has averaged 77.7 air yards per game over his last six games.

Now, he draws a Detroit Lions pass defense that ranks among the league’s worst since they came off their bye in Week 10. The Vikings have a sliver of hope for a spot in the playoffs and will be going all out seeking a win in Week 18 — Addison has immense upside in this spot.

Tight Ends

PlayerTargetsReceptionsReceiving YardsReceiving TDsFantasy PointsFantasy Points (PPR)
Jake Ferguson6.84.352.30.610.812.9
Trey McBride7.
Gerald Everett7.14.649.30.49.812.1
Dalton Schultz6.84.444.90.49.311.5
Cole Kmet7.35.6420.3911.8
Dalton Kincaid7.
Darren Waller6.94.846.70.38.811.2
Dallas Goedert5.6451.60.38.710.7
Evan Engram8.15.942.30.28.611.6
Kyle Pitts74.646.60.28.410.7
Logan Thomas6.54.643.
Noah Gray4.83.848.
David Njoku7.
Tucker Kraft5.82.935.
Dawson Knox5.53.930.90.378.9
Johnny Mundt6.7430.50.379
Jonnu Smith53.5340.26.68.4
Juwan Johnson6.13.730.
Cade Otton53.329.
Durham Smythe5.43.630.
Chigoziem Okonkwo5.83.829.
Hunter Henry4.52.822.
Sam LaPorta3.62.724.
George Kittle32.329.
Pat Freiermuth4.52.825.10.256.4
Tanner Hudson3.62.7210.24.65.9
Colby Parkinson42.621.
Tommy Tremble4.92.9180.24.45.9
Tyler Conklin3.82.725.
Adam Trautman3.12.315.
Mike Gesicki2.71.514.
Isaiah Likely2.11.618.20.133.9
Kylen Granson2.
Will Dissly1.
Austin Hooper1.
Daniel Bellinger1.51.11201.92.5
Taysom Hill0.
Irv Smith Jr.

Dawson Knox (TE15)

The most meaningful game of the Week 18 slate for both teams involved is Sunday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins fight for the AFC East division title. While the rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid remains involved in Buffalo’s passing attack, veteran Dawson Knox is still a huge red zone threat and now draws a Dolphins defense that has been porous against tight ends all season long. In the event of a close, high-powered offensive game, Knox could be the star of DFS lineups in the closing moments of the regular season.