Betting
1/5/24
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 18 Best Bets: Smash This Mason Rudolph Passing Prop
Below, you’ll find best bets for Week 18. The team of Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Ahaan Rungta and Patrick H. are working to find the best player prop bets, and will be posting them in this article.
You can also find all our plays in our FREE Discord, in the prop-bets channel.
TOP WEEK 18 PLAYER PROPS
Steelers at Ravens
Spread: Ravens +3.5
Game Total: 34.5
Mason Rudolph OVER 189.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings and ESPN Bet
This line has risen to 195.5 yards on FanDuel already. Mason Rudolph has thrown for at least 274 yards in both starts this season. He didn’t start any games in 2022 but did throw for 242 yards against Detroit in his lone start of 2021. In 2020, he threw for 315 passing yards against Cleveland in his only start that year. In 2019, Rudolph started eight games and was 5-3 to the over 189.5 passing yards. Overall, Rudolph is now 9-3 to this over in his 12 career starts.
He’ll be facing mainly Ravens backups on defense, as Baltimore has clinched the No. 1 seed already, and the Steelers as slight road favorites in this game reflects this. The Steelers keep their playoff hopes alive with a win on Saturday afternoon and should be the more motivated team in this contest.
Texans at Colts
Spread: Colts +1.5
Game Total: 47.5
Dalton Schultz OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Dalton Schultz is just 6 for 8 on this line for the season, so let’s dig into why we like this bet in Week 18. Tank Dell broke his leg last month, Noah Brown has already been ruled out, and Robert Woods hasn’t practiced all week. Schultz should be the de facto No. 2 option in this Texans passing game against the Colts, who CJ Stroud shredded for 384 yards the last time they faced off.
The Colts play Cover 3 and Cover 4 at a high rate, and Stroud has been excellent against these coverages.
If we remove Weeks 14-16, when Stroud wasn’t playing a full game due to injury, we are left with 13 games. The second-highest receiving yardage total from a Texans player was higher than Schultz’s line in 10 of those 13 games (77 percent). The Colts are a roughly league average team against tight ends this year, and Schultz is set up for a big game out of necessity - a win gets the Texans into the playoffs.
Jaguars at Titans
Spread: Titans +3.5
Game Total: 41.5
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Vikings at Lions
Spread: Lions -3.5
Game Total: 45.5
Jordan Addison OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -108 on Caesar’s
Jordan Addison has been under this line in five of his past six games, but the opportunity has been there. He’s averaging 77.7 air yards per game in that span, which includes a 65 air-yard game vs. Detroit, where he only ran 33 percent of the routes before getting hurt. T.J. Hockenson is out, so Addison is the second-option pass catcher on the team and now faces a Lions defense that ranks No. 31 in dropback EPA per play allowed since they came off their bye in Week 10. Minnesota is still technically alive for a playoff spot, so they will go 100 percent to try to win this game with QB Nick Mullens.
Ty Chandler UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings and ESPN Bet
Ty Chandler erupted for 132 rushing yards on 23 attempts against the Bengals in Week 15. Weeks 16 and 17, Chandler ran eight times for 17 yards against the Lions and then 10 times for 40 yards against the Packers. Alexander Mattison has backed up Chandler these past two games, and he saw his snap share rise from nine percent against Detroit in Week 16 to 40 percent in Week 17 against Green Bay. Lions opponents run just 17 times per game with RBs, the second-lowest total in the NFL, and their 58 rush yards per game allowed to RBs ranks dead last in the NFL. With Chandler sharing more work against Mattison than their Week 16 game, it’s tough to see him improving all that much from his eight-carry, 17-yard effort from two weeks ago.
Browns at Bengals
Spread: Bengals -7
Game Total: 37.5
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Buccaneers at Panthers
Spread: Panthers +4.5
Game Total: 37.5
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Falcons at Saints
Spread: Saints -3
Game Total: 42
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Jets at Patriots
Spread: Patriots -2.5
Game Total: 30.5
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Bears at Packers
Spread: Packers -3
Game Total: 45
DJ Moore OVER 5.5 Receptions
Best Odds: +120 on DraftKings
DJ Moore has beaten this in four of his last six games. In the 11 full games Justin Fields has played, Moore has beaten this number seven times. Green Bay gave up 300 passing yards and 30 points to Bryce Young two weeks ago. Moore came out publicly and said he wants Fields back next year. The weather doesn’t look like it will be a factor in this contest, either. All things considered, we’re taking our chances with plus odds here.
Aaron Jones UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
It’s a nightmare kind of season for Aaron Jones with injuries, and he’s been under this in seven of 10 games. But he’s gone over 100 in each of the last two games, which is probably why this line is so high. The Bears have the league’s best run defense. This line is 62.5 on FanDuel so that you can get it at a value on DraftKings. Chicago has been a genuinely good football team over the past seven games. The concern here is this is an “empty the chamber” game for Green Bay with a playoff spot on the line.
Aaron Jones OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
There have been 22 RBs who have topped this number against Chicago on the season. When these teams played in Week 1, Jones had 86 receiving yards, with two receptions higher than this number. As noted above, the Bears have one of the league's best run defenses. As a result, Jones' utilization should skew towards the passing game here. We also like 25+ receiving yards at +210 odds and 50+ receiving yards at +1000 odds for those with access to the Bet365 sportsbook. The odds differ for those alt lines on DraftKings, at +160 and +750, respectively.
Chiefs at Chargers
Spread: Chargers -3.5
Game Total: 35
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Broncos at Raiders
Spread: Raiders -3
Game Total: 37
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Eagles at Giants
Spread: Giants +5.5
Game Total: 34.5
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Seahawks at Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals +3
Game Total: 48
Rondale Moore OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
The Seahawks have struggled all season against slot receivers. Rondale Moore plays full-time in the slot, while Greg Dortch has primarily played out wide since Marquise Brown’s injury. Moore has played more than half the snaps in every game, with at least a 64 percent snap share in 14 of 16 games. Moore’s reception line is 2.5, with heavy juice (-155 odds) to the over. Moore has three or more receptions in six games this year, and he’s 5-1 on this line in those games. The one loss was in Week 3 with Josh Dobbs, when Moore caught four passes for eight yards. This is the right matchup for Moore, and it’s a fairly low receiving yardage total.
Kenneth Walker OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -113 on Caesar’s
Kenneth Walker has been under this line in three of four games since returning from injury, but there’s a lot of noise there. He has stayed under a 60 percent snap share in all four games and faced a couple of tough matchups and a couple of negative game scripts. In this must-win game, Pete Carroll will likely look to return to the run against a Cardinals team that ranks No. 27 in rush EPA per play allowed since Week 10 and is No. 28 in run stop win rate this year. Walker’s rush attempt line is juiced to the over at 12.5 attempts, and Walker has cleared 55.5 rushing yards in seven of nine games when he reaches 12 carries.
Rams at 49ers
Spread: 49ers -4
Game Total: 41
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Cowboys at Commanders
Spread: Commanders +13
Game Total: 47
We don’t currently have any plays for this game, check back later in the weekend to see if there are any updates.
Bills at Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins +2.5
Game Total: 48
Josh Allen OVER 243.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Josh Allen is 8-8 against this number and hasn’t hit it in four straight games. We are betting on regression here. Allen has played Miami four times over the past two seasons, and he’s gone over 300 yards in the air in all of those matchups. Miami’s starting edge rushers are both out, and CB Xavien Howard is out. Jerome Baker is out, and Jevon Holland is questionable. This is an injury-ravaged Dolphins defense, and the Bills get the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win Sunday night.
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown
Best Odds: -110 on BetMGM
Tyreek Hill hasn’t scored in three straight weeks, but that should change with RB Raheem Mostert banged up in a high-leverage primetime game against a Bills defense that’s only allowed two RB rushing scores since Week 10. The volume has been there for Hill, who has six red zone targets over his past three games. There’s a huge odds discrepancy here, as this is listed at -140 on other books.
