Betting
12/27/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 17 Betting Preview: New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Jets (6-9) at Browns (10-5)
Spread: Browns -7.5
Total: 35
Weather: Potential for rain
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has stayed at Browns -7.5 all week. The total has fluctuated between 35 and 36 points.
Browns Offense vs. Jets Defense
Joe Flacco has thrown for more than 300 passing yards in each of his past three games. We should not expect Flacco to exceed 300 yards in the air consistently, but he has carried the offense during his four starts.
Amari Cooper has 374 receiving yards over the last two games. Over the past three games, Cooper has 37 targets. Elijah Moore led the Cleveland Browns with 83 receiving yards on 12 targets in Flacco’s first start with the team. During Cleveland’s current three-game winning streak, Moore and rookie Cedric Tillman have been mild contributors. The New York Jets allow the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.
Historically, tight ends benefit from playing with Flacco. David Njoku has 31 targets over the past three games and he’s exceeded 90 receiving yards twice. The Jets allow the eighth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
Cleveland’s running game has been mediocre for most of the season. A big reason for that is their premium offensive line has been reduced by injuries. Since Flacco took over, Jerome Ford has 44 carries and 16 targets. Over that same span, Kareem Hunt has 36 carries and eight targets. Hunt has been held to fewer than 50 rushing yards in all four contests. Ford had 51 rushing yards in one of those games, but he’s been held to 25 or fewer in the other three. The Jets give up the seventh-most rushing yards and the 10th-most receiving yards to running backs.
Jets Offense vs. Browns Defense
Zach Wilson has been ruled out for Thursday night due to a concussion. That means Trevor Siemian gets another start. Last week he played reasonably well against the Commanders’ league-worst pass defense. Cleveland’s defense is on the other side of the football spectrum.
Garett Wilson leads Jets pass catchers by a mile in receptions (88), receiving yards (958), receiving touchdowns (3) and target share (30.5 percent). Allen Lazard is second among Jets wide receivers in yards with 311. The Browns allow the third-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.
Tight end Tyler Conklin is second on the team in receptions (54), receiving yards (560) and target share (16 percent). The Browns allow the fewest receiving yards to enemy tight ends.
Breece Hall only has 732 rushing yards, but his 537 receiving yards are second among running backs. Hall ran for 96 yards last week but was held to 50 or fewer in each of his previous nine games. The Browns have allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards and the ninth-fewest receiving yards to running backs.
What You're Betting On
If you are betting on the Browns, you are betting on their defense dominating the Jets’ bottom-tier offense. Cleveland’s pass rush has a trench advantage. The Jets will struggle on the ground and in the air to the point a shutout is on the table.
Your concern here is that the Jets’ defense can conceivably shut down Cleveland’s offense. You don’t need a big game out of Flacco as a Browns bettor, but you do need a relatively clean one to win with distance.
If you’re betting on the Jets, you are primarily betting on their defense shutting down Flacco. Cleveland has a banged up offensive line, so the Jets’ defense could have a trench advantage. Flacco was a Jet last season, so New York is familiar with what he does well, and what he doesn’t.
If you’re a Jets bettor you’re probably going to need a few big plays that create scoring drives. A big run by Hall or a broken slant from Garrett Wilson are possible but not the sort of thing you should be building bets around.
Score Prediction: Browns 13, Jets 6
Ryan's Recent Betting Record
ATS
2021: 49-31
2022: 48-32
2023: 43-37
Props
2022: 60-40
2023: 26-28
